Date: November 20th, 2018
Livestock futures finished higher yesterday, cattle were mixed throughout the day as hogs saw only moderate not aggressive buying to follow up the limit higher moves form Friday. Impressive though to see higher markets with the stock market under pressure again Monday. I would say most are looking for cash feedlot trade to get wrapped up prior to Thanksgiving even though the futures market will open back up for Friday trading.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Auction Report for 11/19/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
6,410 3,030 9,875
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 450 lbs steady to firm, over 500 lbs steady to 3.00 lower, too few yearlings last week for a good price comparison, undertone higher. Demand moderate to good, supply moderate. Cold, damp weather the last few days, but is forecast to improve. Feeder cattle supply included 52 percent Steers, 1 percent Dairy Steers, 39 percent Heifers, and 7 percent Bulls. Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 45 percent.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/19/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
7,500 8,642 7,170
Compared to last week: Feeder steers traded mostly 1.00-4.00 higher. Feeder heifers 3.00 higher on limited comparable receipts. Steer and heifer calves mostly 1.00-7.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Quality mostly average.
Cattle slaughter for Monday estimated at 119,000 head, up 8,000 from last week but down 2,000 compared to last year. Hog slaughter for Monday estimated at 479,000 head, up 38,000 from last week and up 18,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 120 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__213.39 +.48
Select Cutout__198.57 +1.00
CME Feeder Index:__147.09 -.74
CME Lean Hog Index.__59.10 -.76 from 11/15
Pork Carcass Cutout__68.81 +.63
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__52.41 +1.17
National Wtd Avg Live__40.45 -.06, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__51.77 +.17
Cold Storage and Cattle on Feed coming out tomorrow at 11 am. The average pre report estimate for COF as of November 1st at 104% vs. a year ago. Placements for October expected to be at 99% vs. last year and Marketings at 104%.
December live cattle holding a premium to cash with support from $114.15 to $113.55 and resistance up near $117. January feeders bounced off the technical pivot point last week and stopped at the $148 resistance level with the next up at $151. December lean hogs into a new recent high with the next resistance area from $62 to $62.90 and support from $57.30 to $56.60.
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In the grains, soybeans led the charge lower as tensions between China and the U.S. were seen at the Pacific Rim Summit. For the first time in 29 years, the 21 nation group failed to agree on a declaration as world trade and policy remains the hottest topic. VP Pence also made a statement yesterday that additional tariffs could be placed on China. Wheat fell under more pressure and is getting very oversold with yet another new low in KC Wheat. The Saudi purchased at such low prices suggests the U.S. will only get 1 to 2 cargoes of the business. Corn only lost a couple cents trying to hold steady most of the day but eventually pulled lower in sympathy for the other grains.
Export inspections for the week ending November 15th were above expectations and above the weekly averaged needed for soybeans at 38.8 MBU. Corn shipments slipped to 31.4 MBU with wheat at 18.7 MBU, both below the average. Grain sorghum shipments jumped to 2.2 MBU with a cargo, 1.96 MBU, loaded for Spain.
Fall harvest still progressing slowly with corn harvest up 6% to now 90% complete, soybean harvest up 3% to 91% and grain sorghum harvest up 7% to 80% complete. Winter wheat is 93% planted with 81% emerged. Conditions improved 2% to now 56% rated good to excellent. Brazil soybean planting progress at 82% complete, that is above the year ago week’s 73% pace, and well ahead of the 67% long term average for this point in the season.
Grains overnight were steady to higher with corn steady to ½ higher, soybeans 3 higher and wheat 1 lower to 1 higher.
USDA announced this morning a private sale of 123,567 MT or 4.5 MBU of soybeans sold for unknown destinations and also announced a cancellation of 200,588 MT or 7.9 MBU of corn sold for unknown destinations.
Rain/snow here in the U.S. remains in the forecast for the eastern half of the U.S. over this next week. The latest 6-10 day outlook showing below normal moisture south and above normal north with temps above normal west and below normal for the central states and south.
December corn trading sideways recently with about a 20 cent range, support at $3.60 and resistance up at $3.79. January soybeans also rangebound from $8.44 ½ to $9.06 with support at $8.70. December KC wheat with a new low Monday at $4.70, resistance up at $5.10. December Chicago wheat holding above $4.95 and resistance at $5.21. December soybean meal with support from $304 to $303 with resistance up at $314.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700