Date: February 21st, 2023
Livestock futures were mixed last Friday and steady to higher for the week. Weekly exports were routine again for beef while remaining very strong for pork. Cash fed cattle trade added another $1 to $2 compared to the week previous. The largest volume again holding off until late Friday at $162 live in KS and TX and trade in the North ranged from $160 to $162 live and mostly $257 dressed. Beef prices last week also sharply higher which should continue to encourage higher prices to be paid by packers without them giving up the additional positive margins. Boxed beef prices over $11 higher last week and packers only giving up 20-25% of that gain.
For the week, Friday February 10th through Friday February 17th, February Live Cattle +$2.37, April +$.70, March Feeder Cattle +$.12, April -$.22, August -$.12, April Lean Hogs +$1.95, June +$1.07. Boxed Beef, Choice +$11.38 @ $281.04, Select +$11.60 @ $265.89, Pork Carcass Cutout +$1.04 @ $82.09.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/20/2023 – Final
This Week: 9,219 Last Week: 9,452 Last Year: 8,748
A large crowd was on hand for this JRS feeder sale. Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 4.00 higher, with a couple of exceptions. Thirty nine head of 313 lb. steers traded at 303.00. Another package of forty two steers weighing 400 lbs. traded at 280.00. Feeder heifer calves under 400 lbs. traded 8.00-12.00 higher. Heavier weights traded steady to 4.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $188 and 8 weights averaged $180-$184.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/20/2023 – Preliminary
This Week: 8,000 Last Week: 9,912 Last Year: 13,714
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher, 650-700 lbs are sharply higher at 10.00-14.00. Feeder heifers are 4.00-7.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves 4.00-7.00 higher. Demand is moderate to good. Quality average. 7 weight index steers averaged $182 and 8 weights averaged $178.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/20/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,045 Last Week: 2,138 Last Year: 2,497
Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers both unevenly steady. Demand good. Quality average. Slaughter cows 6.00-9.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 5.00-7.00 higher.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/20/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,461 Last Week: 5,651 Last Year: 3,991
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher with instances of 13.00, except 400 lbs – 450 lbs & 850 lbs – 900 lbs steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher, expect 400 lbs – 500 lbs, 550 lbs – 600 lbs, 700 lbs – 750 lbs 2.00 to 5.00 lower with instances of 15.00. Demand for this large offering of eye appealing cattle was good to excellent. 7 weight index steers averaged $188 and 8 weights average $177 to $181.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 627,000 head, down 3,000 from the week previous and down 43,000 from last year. Year to date is now down 1.9% from last year while beef production is down 3.7%. Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 104,000 head, down 22,000 from last week and down 6,000 from last year.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,505,000 head, up 19,000 compared to the week previous and up 23,000 compared to a year ago. Year to date is now up 2.2% from last year with pork production up 1.8%. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 482,000 head, down 3,000 compared to a week ago and down 11,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday higher on moderate demand with 72 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__282.89 +1.85
Select Cutout__268.05 +2.16
CME Feeder Cattle Index__182.63 from Feb 16th
CME Lean Hog Index__76.09 from Feb 16th
Pork Carcass Cutout __82.09 -.97 from Friday
February live cattle hit a new contract high last Friday at $164.07 with support down at $160.30. October 2014 was the all-time spot high for live cattle at $171.97. March feeders choppy the past couple weeks with resistance at $188.57 and support down at $185. April lean hogs carved out support two weeks ago around $82 with resistance up around $88.
Grains were extremely quiet and fairly low volume trade to end last week steady to higher. Soybeans and Chicago wheat lost double digits week over week while corn and KC wheat only suffered minor losses. Overall the trade continues to be supported by Argentina’s falling crop potential while pressured by a strong US$. Argentina weather this past week came off its 8th heatwave of the summer to find record low temps and even frost on crops late in the week. The
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported soybean crop conditions deteriorated on the week with good to excellent only at 9% and poor to very poor at 56% compared to 13% G/E and 48% P/VP a week ago and 35% G/E and 23% P/VP this time last year. Corn conditions also backed up with G/E of 11% and P/VP 45% compared to 20% G/E and 34% P/VP a week ago and 20% G/E and 26% P/VP this time last year.
For the week, Friday February 10th through Friday February 17th, March Corn -$.02 ¾, December -$.00 ¼, March Soybeans -$.15 ¼, November +$.07 ½, March KC Wheat -$.02 ½, July +$.01, March Chicago Wheat -$.20 ½, July -$.18, March MPLS Wheat unchanged, March Soybean Meal -$8.30/T.
Grains mostly higher overnight with corn finishing 1 to 3 higher, soybeans 7 to 13 higher and wheat 2 lower to 3 higher. Outside markets show equities sharply lower, US$ steady to higher and energies higher with crude up a$.40 to $.50/barrel. President Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine over the weekend sparking a very combative speech by Russian President Putin overnight. In his speech, he has now formally declared suspension in the START nuclear arms treaty.
Specific to Ag fundamentals, this week’s focus will be the USDA Ag outlook conference on Thursday/Friday where they will reveal their first take at 23/24 balance sheet projections, March grain option expiration also on Friday and the Ukraine Grain Corridor extension negotiations are supposed to begin. And of course South American weather with the markets still assessing the frost damage in Argentina. Brazil soy harvest still behind normal pace at now 25% complete and 2nd crop corn at 40% planted.
Warmer temps give way to a cold front later this week bringing with it chances for heavy snow across the Northern Plains then 1”+ rains for the Eastern half of the U.S. into early next week. The 6–10-day outlook showing above normal temps for the South and East and below normal west with above normal precipitation across the country except for below normal moisture for the Gulf States.
March corn still rangebound but showing a higher trend over the past couple months with nearby support around $6.50 and resistance at $6.89. March soybeans holding the long term higher trend with a new recent high last week $15.55 ½, the contract high from June is at $15.72 ¼ and support at $15.20. March KC wheat now holding a month long higher trend with a new recent high last week at $9.21 ½, resistance next at $9.29 and support at $8.77. March Chicago wheat still rangebound this year with resistance around the $8 level and support at $7.44. March MPLS wheat trading sideways the past couple months with support at $9.10 and resistance at $9.40. March soybean meal hit a new contract high last week at $508.20, the spot high from August the next upside target at $531.20 and support down at $478.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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