Date: August 14, 2023
Cattle futures finished out last week lower that locked in losses week over week. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade very light and steady to $1 higher heading into the close on Friday. Trade in North reported at $188 to $190 live and $295 dressed with trade in South at $180 live. The U.S. meat supply and demand was updated on Friday with beef production down yet again for this year but increased next year. Pork production also decreased for 2023 while total poultry production was slightly higher but sharply lower for 2024.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…August Live Cattle -$.52, October -$1.57, August Feeders -$1.77, September -$2.00, August Lean Hogs +$1.07, October -$1.75. Choice Boxed Beef +$.82 at $302.61 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.61 at $110.08.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/6/2023 – 8/12/2023
Receipts: Current Week 26,295 Last Week 17,595 Last Year 33,267
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers traded mostly 1.00 to 5.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves traded 4.00 to 8.00 higher. Slaughter cows and bulls traded mostly steady to 2.00 higher, with the exception of Breaking Utility cows which traded 3.00 to 4.00 lower. Trading activity was mostly active on good buyer demand. Rain showers around the state Monday and over the weekend with beneficial rains to parts of Northern and Eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures have also cooled some and are back in the mid-nineties. These timely rains are helping to restock some of the depleted hay supplies.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 603,000 head, down 10,000 from the week previous and down 42,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 490.1 million pounds with year to date -4.9% vs. last year and slaughter -4.0%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,354,000 head, up 16,000 compared to the week previous and up 26,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 491.3 million pounds last week with year to date +0.4% vs. last year and slaughter +1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate to weak demand with 73 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +.58 @ 302.61, Select Cutout -.57 @ 277.23
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 244.52, Lean Hog Index @ 103.06
Pork Carcass Cutout from Friday -2.93 @ 110.08
August live cattle continue to hold a long-term higher trend with the contract high and all-time spot high on July 20th at $182.97. Nearby support at $179.30 and resistance at $181.70. August feeders also holding the long-term higher trend with the contract and all-time spot high hit back on July 12th at $251.30. Nearby support around $246 then $242 with resistance at $250. August lean hogs will expire today. October will then be the front month which has turned lower over this past week after holding a 2-month long higher trend. On Friday, October hit a new recent low at $79.65 with support next at $77.50 and resistance $83.40 then $86.75.
All grains finished lower on Friday and for the week. Overall the news throughout the week did not change much…the war in Ukraine continues, U.S. weather looks really good. The extended forecasts did increase the temps and took out some moisture for the last half of August. USDA cut yield for corn and soybeans on Friday and even a little more than expected. Old crop stocks increased but new crop stocks were lower than a month ago. U.S. wheat production was decreased slightly but ending stocks projected higher as the export pace remains slow. World stocks came down more than expected across the board and overall Friday’s crop reports were friendly which kicked futures higher just briefly. About an hour later though, FSA had their acreage data dump which may have been the reason for the turn lower. Planted corn acres estimated by FSA at nearly 93 million, which is still less than the NASS estimate. Remember though that FSA reports insured acres which accounts for 97-98% of the total acres. If you add 2-3% to 93 million that would be closer to 96 million acres of corn planted not the 94 million reported in the June acreage report.
The CFTC Commitment of Trader’s report for the week ending August 8th showed funds net short 55.4K contracts of Chicago wheat, net short 26.6K contracts of corn and still net long 64.1K contracts of soybeans. Estimates through Friday showing they added to their short positions for both wheat and corn and in essence held the same position in soybeans.
Weekly closes in the grains… September Corn -$.09 ¾, December -$.10, September Soybeans -$.49 ¾, November -$.25 ¾, September KC Wheat +$.03 ¼, December -$.03 ¼, September Chicago Wheat -$.06 ¼, December -$.06 ½, September MPLS Wheat -$.07 ¼, December -$.07 ½, September Soybean Meal -$12.3/T, December -$9.0/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans the leader higher and wheat the leader lower but fairly quiet trading. Soybeans finished the overnight 7 to 9 higher, wheat 4 to 10 lower and corn 4 to 5 lower. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies lower with crude down $1.30/barrel.
USDA announced 416,000 MT or 15.3 MBU of new crop soybeans sold for to delivery to unknown destinations. This could certainly help keep soybeans higher today as well.
Hazardous heat still lingering this week in the South and the only heavy rains forecasted around the Great Lakes with 1” rains in the ECB. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the Central Plains to the East Coast with below normal temps only in the Southwest and below normal moisture for the eastern half of the country with above normal precip for the western third.
December corn testing the July low at $4.81 with resistance at $5.07 ½ then at $5.20. November soybeans holding out the best as August weather premium still in place. Nearby support at $12.82 then around $12.60 with resistance at $13.54. September KC wheat a new recent low so far today at $7.37, support next the May low at $7.33 and resistance at $7.80. September Chicago wheat also a new recent low this morning at $6.08 ½, support next the May low at $5.87 ¾ and nearby resistance around $6.60. September MPLS wheat as support at $8.07 ¼, the July low still holding, with resistance around $8.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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