Date: September 19th, 2022
Somewhat of a quiet trade to end last week for all livestock futures. Fats near steady for the week as feeders were under selling pressure early from higher grains and then tanking equites as inflation is still high. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week was steady to $1 higher, the most supportive fundamental factor for live cattle futures. Trade in the South done mostly at $142 live and trade in the North at $143 live and $225 up to $230 dressed.
For the week, Friday September 9th through Friday September 16th, October Live Cattle -$.17, December unchanged, September Feeder Cattle -$3.80, October -$4.32, October Lean Hogs +$3.72, December +$4.85. Boxed Beef, Choice -$4.86 @ $252.40, Select -$8.08 @ $226.65, Pork Carcass Cutout +$3.52 @ $106.39.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/11/22-9/17/22
Current Week: 40,457 Last Report 9/5/22: 19,599 Last Year: 32,873
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 4.00-8.00 lower. Demand moderate for feeder cattle despite numbers continuing to get tighter. Feeder cattle futures declined this week as a host of negative items hit the markets, higher grain prices, lower Boxed Beef prices. Steer calves sold mostly steady to 4.00 lower, decline on the 5 weights. Heifer calves 1.00-3.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for calves with short weaned or un-weaned calves seeing the least action. Many cattle continued to come to market early due to drought and the lack of hay or high hay prices.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 667,000 head, up 63,000 from the week previous and up 17,000 from last year. Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,465,000 head, up 222,000 compared to the week previous but down 80,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday steady for Choice but lower for Select on good demand with 139 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__252.40 +.06
Select Cutout__226.65 -3.30
CME Feeder Cattle Index__176.82 -1.69
CME Lean Hog Index__97.97 +.20
Pork Carcass Cutout __106.39 +.54
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__90.86 -4.25, 4,557 head
October live cattle holding a higher trend since the May 31st low with nearby support at $144 then $142 and resistance at $146. September feeders now holding a month long lower trend with a new recent low last Friday at $178.30, very near the support levels from July, resistance up at $182. October lean hogs back to a higher recent trend with support at $92 and testing resistance last week around $97.
Grains also somewhat subdued to end the week, but steady to higher helping wheat secure week over week gains. The Southern Plains remain hot and dry and the war in Ukraine still wages on. December corn tested but was unable to break through the $7 barrier early in the week. November soybeans did break through the $15 barrier but faltered after the new recent high as both soybeans and corn saw some pressure midweek as harvest moves swiftly northward. Corn basis also continues to rally in the Western Corn Belt as end users try to secure their needs. The lack of follow through buying from the bullish crop report last Monday does not bode well until those highs are tested again. Right now there’s a battle between a shrinking fall crop and at what flat price will we see demand destruction.
The CFTC Commitment of Trader’s report for the week ending 9/13 showed managed fund money buyers of all the grains, adding 14.1k Corn contracts (net long 240.6k), +1.0k Chicago Wheat (net short -20.3k), +5.9k KC Wheat (net long 16.9k), and adding 12.4k soybeans (net long 112.1k).
For the week, Friday September 9th through Friday September 16th, December Corn -$.07 ¾, March -$.06 ¼, November Soybeans +$.36 ¼, January +$.37 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.06, March +$.04 ½, December Chicago Wheat -$.09 ¾, March -$.09 ¼, December MPLS Wheat +$.11 ¼, March +$.06 ¼.
Wheat the leader lower overnight as good rains fell over parts of central and northcentral KS over the weekend and parts of southwest KS late last week. In general, the western third of KS down into TX still need quite a bit more this fall. Some private estimates reported Russian crop still seen larger than current estimates with one up to 99 MMT production this year compared to USDA’s updated estimate last week at 91 MMT. On a positive note, USDA reported a private sale of 136,000 MT or 5 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China. Both corn and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged but finished the overnight lower as well with corn 4 to 5 lower, soybeans 3 to 4 lower and wheat 15 to 21 lower. Outside markets not helping either with equities pointing lower along with energies, crude down $3, and the US$ higher.
Excessive heat for the first part of the week across most of the Southern Plains and stretching into the WCB and Southeast. A cold front expected to come through by midweek but the forecasts is not calling for much moisture with it. The 6-10 day outlook calling for above normal temps still for all expect in the Northeast and normal to below normal moisture.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with resistance at the $7 level and support around $6.50. November soybeans continue to chop sideways but a new recent high last week at $15.08 ¾, a penny above the June 30th high with resistance next at $15.15 and $15.30 and support at $14.35, currently both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. December KC Wheat tested the higher trendline with resistance at last week’s new recent high at $9.58 and price support around $8.80. December Chicago wheat also testing the higher trend overnight with resistance at last week’s new recent high at $8.84 ¾ and price support next down at $7.90. December MPLS wheat still stuck trading sideways with support at $8.80 and resistance at $9.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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