Date: November 13th, 2018
Cattle futures yesterday were mixed with hogs showing strong gains but both on light volume. I wouldn’t expect to see much change in direction here the week before Thanksgiving, cattle steady to weaker and hogs mixed to higher if cash prices can hold or even rebound.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/12/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
9,000 9,992 10,818
Compared to last week: Feeder steers traded 6.00-8.00 lower. Feeder heifers 7.00-11.00 lower. Steer calves sold 4.00-9.00 lower on limited comparable receipts. Heifer calves 6.00-9.00 lower. Demand moderate. Winter weather has arrived as snow has fallen over most of the trade area. Some warmer weather is expected towards the end of the week. Feeder cattle supply included 57 percent Steers, 39 percent Heifers, and 4 percent Bulls. Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 45 percent.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/12/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
3,030 5,437 6,175
Compared to last week, calves sold 2.00-6.00 lower and yearlings were too lightly tested for a market trend, the undertone was weak. Several inches of snow fell over the trade area Monday morning which limited receipts. Supply was light and demand was moderate. Feeder cattle supply included 44 percent Steers, 51 percent Heifers, and 5 percent Bulls. Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 32 percent.
Cattle slaughter from Monday is estimated at 114,000 head, down 3,000 from last week but up 2,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Monday is estimated at 441,000 head, down 35,000 from last week and down 24,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and light to moderate offerings for a total of 87 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__215.55 +.35
Select Cutout__200.39 +1.67
CME Feeder Index:__150.59 -1.04
CME Lean Hog Index.__61.87 -.90
Pork Carcass Cutout__70.83 +.56
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__52.00 -1.24
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__51.89 -1.46
December live cattle with support next at $113.40 then around $111 with resistance up near $117. November feeders into a new recent low but still holding support near $148. January into a new recent low as well, testing support from late June at $143 with the next down at $141. December lean hogs reversed higher on Monday after testing the $54 support last week with resistance up near $60.
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While markets were open Monday of course, government reports are delayed 1 day this week with the observance of Veteran’s Day. Wheat futures shot higher, again spurred by spreading action more than new news. Soybeans pulled back some as still no confirmation the trade war is ending with China. Brazil’s bean basis crashed hard last week which led to the futures rally as some think we are nearing the end of the tariffs on U.S. soybeans. Some talks have resumed between the U.S. administration and China as we await the meeting between the two presidents at the end of November in Argentina as a part of the G-20 summit.
Grains overnight were mixed with soybeans 4 to 5 higher while corn finished 2 lower and wheat 1 to 5 lower.
USDA reported a private sale of 276,732 MT or 10.2 MBU of soybeans sold for unknown destinations. Export inspections to be released later this morning and crop progress after the close later today. Brazil’s first crop corn well ahead of pace at 82% planted but Argentina is behind at only 36% planted. October NOPA domestic soybean crush with be released Thursday. Export sales are delayed until Friday morning.
Russia continues to push its exports with meetings scheduled with China and Iraq before the end of the year. China has already been sourcing soybeans from Russia this year and purchased land for additional production. A proposed joint soy crush plant may be in the works in the near term. Iraq will be looking at Russian wheat quality to determine if they will start importing from them. Most of Iraq’s wheat imports come from the U.S., Canada and Australia.
Moisture this week mainly holding off the East Coast. This should allow for a decent week of fall harvest for those that can get in the fields or running on frozen ground. The latest 6-10 day outlook showing below normal moisture for most areas, above normal in TX with below normal temps still in the eastern half of the U.S. and above normal west.
December corn still holding a higher trend with support still at $3.60 and resistance up at $3.78 ½. January soybeans with support around $8.45 and resistance up at $9.06. December KC wheat with the recent low and support holding at $4.84 ½, resistance up at $5.10. December Chicago wheat holding a higher trend over these past few weeks with support at $5.00 and resistance at $5.21. December soybean meal with support at $304 and resistance at $316 then $327.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700