Date: November 26th, 2019
Last week’s cash feedlot trade confirmed over 103,000 head compared to 86,000 the week previous at an average price just under $116 live and just over $184 dressed. It took some time for the cattle futures to react to the positive cold storage and at least positive to pre report expectations on the Cattle on Feed report, but by mid-morning yesterday all contracts were triple digits higher.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/25/2019
Total Receipts: 13,045 Last Week: 7,812 Last Year: 9,990
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves 3.00 to 5.00 lower, yearling steers evenly steady, yearling heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good, supply heavy. A Yearling Special was highlighted along with the regular feeder cattle sale.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/25/2019
Total Receipts: 5,700 Last Week: 13,355 Last Year: 9,477
Compared to last week: Feeder steers traded steady to 1.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer calves traded steady to 1.00 higher. Heifer calves 400-500 lbs. 1.00-3.00 higher, 500-600 lbs. 7.00-8.00 higher.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/25/2019
Total Receipts: 3,104 Last Week: 4,874 Last Year: 3,143
Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers unevenly steady with instances of Value Added cattle 4.00-6.00 higher. Demand good. Quality good, several attractive. Slaughter cows mostly steady. Slaughter bulls had too few receipts to establish a trend.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 118,000 head, matching last week and up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 491,000 head, down 2,000 compared to last week but up 47,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm on moderate demand and moderate offerings for a total of 130 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__233.24 +.67
Select Cutout__211.91 +.59
CME Feeder Index__145.33 -.14
CME Lean Hog Index__58.18 -1.58
Pork Carcass Cutout__84.01 +.94
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__34.81 +1.09, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__41.37 -.43
National Wtd Avg Live Price__34.61 -.03, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__41.78 -.13
December live cattle breaking the $120 barrier today, back on November 4th a new 6-month high at $120.32. Resistance next up near $124 and support at $117.70. January feeders reversed higher after crashing lower Friday with support at the October low at $136.10 and resistance up at $144.30. December lean hogs holding the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April hitting a new recent low last week at $60.05. Support next down around $58 with resistance up around $67.
Grains were mixed yesterday with soybeans lower on the day, corn higher and the leader was wheat. Black Sea origins continue to raise prices which is still supportive to U.S. prices. Poor weather in causing planting delays and will likely decrease acres in Western Europe while both Australia and Argentina are battling weather during harvest. Export inspections were in line with expectations but only above the average needed for soybeans at 71.4 MBU. Corn inspections totaled 23.8 MBU, wheat 15.5 MBU and only 223,454 bushels of grain sorghum for the week ending November 21.
Corn harvest advanced 8% to now 84% nationwide with SD still behind at 68%, WI at 57%, MI at 56% and ND only 30% harvested. Soybean harvest is now 94% complete nationwide with grain sorghum harvest at 97%.Winter wheat conditions were unchanged at 52% rated good to excellent and 84% of the crop has emerged.
Overnight, grains were lower with corn and soybeans finishing 1 lower and wheat 3 to 6 lower.
This week, volume will be thinning each day, markets are closed on Thursday and reopen on Friday from 8:30 to 12:05. December grain contracts will be in delivery next week, first notice is Friday, so make sure and exit or roll all positions before delivery begins.
A round of storms moving through this week with heavy snow in the forecast for the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt and heavy rain for the Southeast and Eastern Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook now showing below normal temps for the entire U.S. with normal to above normal precipitation for all except the PNW.
December corn holding a lower trend since mid-October, rounding out a bottom or support from $3.65 to 3.70 with resistance up at $3.78. January soybeans also holding a lower trend but continue to be under pressure with support next around the $8.70 area and resistance at $9.20. December KC wheat holding a very slow moving higher trend since early September with support at $4.17 and resistance up at $4.39. December Chicago wheat also trending higher with support at $5.08 and testing resistance from $5.32 to $5.35. December soybean meal still choppy with support at $298 and resistance up near $303.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700