Date: August 8th, 2022
Livestock futures finished out another week higher and were able to secure gains week over week supported by friendly fundamentals. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week steady to $2 higher in the South at $135 to $136 live and steady to $5 higher in the North at $140 to $146 live and $225 to $232 dressed. There were also reports of northern regional packers paying up to $138 live to bring fed cattle out of KS. Feeders pulled higher by the fat cattle support even with corn rallying last week. Lean hogs were mixed all week as pork values bounced higher and lower.
For the week, Friday July 29th through Friday August 5th, August Live Cattle +$1.42, October +$1.65, August Feeder Cattle +$.95, September +$1.87, August Lean Hogs +$.17, October +$1.17. Boxed Beef, Choice -$4.62 @ $264.62, Select -$3.58 @ $238.67, Pork Carcass Cutout -$2.31 @ $125.03.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/31/22-8/6/22
Current Week: 31,326 Last Report 7/25/22: 28,413 Last Year: 27,920
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady. Feeder heifers 1.00-4.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Slaughter cattle prices improved slightly and corn prices declined only to move higher the next day. The corn price roller coaster will continue until harvest. Steer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 3.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 651,000 head, down 18,000 from the week previous but up 7,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 528.2 million pounds with year to date up 1.0% vs. last year and slaughter up 1.2%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,340,000 head, up 49,000 compared to the week previous and up 13,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 495.9 million pounds with year to date now -2.9% compared to a year ago and slaughter -3.6%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on moderate demand with 108 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__264.62 -1.66
Select Cutout__238.67 -1.68
CME Feeder Cattle Index__175.43 +1.68
CME Lean Hog Index__122.09 +.49
Pork Carcass Cutout __125.03 +.23
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__124.43 -2.76, 6,019 head
August live cattle breaking through the $138 resistance area last week and holding a higher trend with the next up at $139 and support at $136. August feeders holding a 2 ½ month long higher trend with support at $177 then $175.20 and resistance at $181.82. August lean hogs also holding a higher trend but expiring this Friday. October also trending higher over the past few weeks with a new recent high last Friday at $98.95, resistance up around the $100 level and support at $92.40.
Grains had another wild back and forth week, yet still finished lower week over week. Pressure started from less threatening U.S. weather forecasts even though this past week was another of excessive heat and dry conditions for the Plains and WCB. By mid-week the forecasts eased some of the future predictions for moisture across the Corn Belt. The other major market moving news came from Speaker of House Pelosi landing in Taiwan as China continues to condemn the action. So far, their reactions have included some trade sanctions and restrictions with Taiwan along with massive military exercises surrounding the island nation. Yet surprising, China purchased U.S. soybeans on Friday morning which has helped ease the soy complex nervousness.
For the week, Friday July 29th through Friday August 5th, September Corn -$.06, December -$.10, September Soybeans -$.24, November -$.59 ¾, September KC Wheat -$.26 ¼, December -$.25 ½, September Chicago Wheat -$.32, December -$.30 ½, September MPLS Wheat -$.19 ½, December -$.18, September Soybean Meal -$4.90/T, October -$13.00/T.
Grains were lower overnight, although they did test steady to higher shortly after the open. Corn finished 7 lower, soybeans 9 to 10 lower and wheat 7 to 12 lower. Equites are pointing higher this morning, US$ is lower along with energies. Ukraine has now shipped out 10 vessels through the Black Sea since the “safe passage” agreement was made. China continues to test Taiwan both by sea and air with military exercise now extended to the end of this week.
USDA announced a few private export sales this morning…105,000 MT or 4.1 MBU of new crop corn sold to Italy, 120,000 MT or 4.7 MBU of new crop corn sold for unknown destinations and 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of new crop soybeans sold to China. This is now 6 cargoes of soybeans to China or unknown destinations over the past two business days which supported soybeans opening the day higher.
Heavy rains along the IA/MN border and into southern WI and northern IL over the weekend. Temps backing off some for the first part of this week locally, but still staying above 90 with little to no rain in the forecast. The Northern Plains will be seeing excessive heat continue later this week as well. The NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts still calling for above normal temps and below normal moisture for most major growing areas.
September corn ranging from $6.32 to $5.83 over the past couple weeks and still a gap down to $5.80 ¾ left on the chart. The December contract looks similar, ranging from $6.36 ½ down to $5.87 ½ with a gap to $5.84 ¼. November soybeans up to $14.89 on July 29th down to $13.56 last week with a gap open down to $13.49 ¼. September KC Wheat chopping sideways since early July with support at $8.14 ½ and resistance at $9.15. September Chicago wheat sideways to lower with a new recent low last week at $7.52 and resistance at $8.45. September MPLS wheat also a new recent low last week at $8.64 ¾ with resistance around $9.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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