Date: October 17th, 2018
Cattle futures were under pressure for most of the day yesterday while hogs continued to rally although we did ease the losses into the close and a couple deferred live cattle contracts were able to close in the green. Volume and interest both very light for live and feeder cattle futures yesterday. A few hundred head of fat cattle traded at $175 dressed in Iowa early this week with over 2,100 head moving in Nebraska yesterday at $170 to $174. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be later this morning with 1,103 head consigned compared to 1,246 head last week but it has been almost 2 months since any have sold on that platform.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/15/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
3,176 5,416 7,972
Compared to last week: All classes of feeder cattle and calves lightly tested. Heavy rainfall continued to fall across much of the state over the weekend and the first cold front of the season pushed thru the state on Sunday. This hampered livestock movement and limiting receipts. Where tested, steers under 800 lbs sold 1.00-3.00 lower, few over 800 lbs firm. Feeder heifers and heifer calves 3.00-6.00 lower.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 10/16/2018
Receipts: 1147 Last Week: 2907 Year Ago: 1104
Total receipts for Mon and Tues sale: 4305
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer and Heifer calves mostly steady in a light test. Yearling feeder steers steady to 1.00 higher. Yearling feeder heifers lightly tested. Slaughter cows 2.00 lower. Slaughter bulls mostly steady. Demand moderate to good.
OKC West – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/16/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
1,200 4,868 8,511
*** Final report including feeder cattle will be released 10/17/18 ***
Compared to last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves sold mostly steady on limited comparable offerings, however steers under 450 lbs traded with a higher undertone.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 119,000 head, up 1,000 from the week previous and up 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 477,000 head, up 26,000 from week previous and up 24,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and firm on Select on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings for a total of 133 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__204.61 -.19
Select Cutout__192.55 +.66
CME Feeder Index:__155.36 -.90
CME Lean Hog Index.__68.59 -.16
Pork Carcass Cutout__80.87 -.63
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__59.85 -.16
National Wtd Avg Live__ 45.30 +.08, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__59.86 -.40
October live cattle holding the $112 support with resistance up at $114.47. December with support at $116 and resistance at $118.20 then the contract high back on October 1st at $119.75. October feeders still holding the lower trend this month, finding support near $154 with the next down at $152. January looks similar and even a steeper downtrend now off over $6 with support next at $148.40 then $147. December lean hogs now the front month with support at $54 and resistance up at $60 after October expired at $68.75.
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Turnaround Tuesday for the grain complex with all giving back some of Monday’s sharp gains. Fall harvest still delayed for most, but there are some combines running in the Corn Belt already. Corn and beans both pulling back from new recent highs on Monday but the charts still look friendly nearby. World wheat prices continue to push higher supporting higher U.S. futures along with the excessively wet fields we still have some 11 million acres of winter wheat left to plant, 3.5 million of that HRW.
Grains traded mixed to lower overnight corn and soybeans finishing 1 lower while wheat 3 to 7 lower.
News overnight was fairly light with the Philippines buying Australian feed wheat, South Korea buying optional origin feed wheat and Jordan buying 1 cargo of milling wheat. No new sales announced by USDA this morning.
Basis levels remain steady to firm in most areas, eastern KS corn basis back up to more historical levels with better basis levels already posted for November forward. Soybean basis levels are firm but only awaiting harvest to get back going before pushing levels back lower.
Rains over this next week isolated in the South and Gulf States. The latest 6-10 day outlook still showing the above normal moisture for the South but starting to creep north into the Central Plains with below normal still for most of the Corn Belt. Temps are still below normal east and above normal west.
December corn breaking through the $3.70 resistance last week with the next up at $3.82 then $3.88, support down at $3.60. November soybeans still trending higher since the contract low at $8.12 ¼ with resistance at $8.92 and then $9.07. December KC wheat choppy with support at last month’s low at $4.98 ¾ and resistance up near $5.40. December Chicago wheat looks similar on the charts with support at $4.95 and resistance around $5.33. December soybean meal trending higher over this past month with resistance at $330 then $340 and support down at $315 then $310.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700