Date: October 4th, 2021
Livestock futures mixed on Friday but cattle lower on the week while lean hogs were sharply higher. Cash fed cattle trade steady with the week previous. Trade in South mostly at $124, but the full range was $121 to $124. Trade in the North steady as well from $122 to $124 live and $196 dressed. Lean hogs gapped higher to begin last week after a bullish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and continued to post gains for the balance of the week.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/26/2021 – 10/2/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 27,482 Previous Week: 27,955 Last Year: 26,028
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 lower, except 800-900 lbs 1.00-3.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold 1.00-3.00 lower. Demand moderate for feeder cattle prices as grain prices rose. Demand for calves moderate with short weaned or un-weaned calves showing the least demand.
For the week, Friday September 24th through Friday October 1st, October Live Cattle -$2.52, December -$2.95, September Feeder Cattle -$.70, October -$4.60, October Lean Hogs +$5.02, December +$8.37. Boxed Beef, Choice -$10.96 @ $292.36, Select -$9.69 @ $264.84, Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.62 @ $113.39.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 107,000 head and Saturday at 57,000. For the week, 637,000 head, down 4,000 from the week previous and down 27,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 526.2 million pounds compared to 527.9 million the week previous and 558.4 million last year. Year to date beef production +3.0% compared to last year and slaughter +3.3%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 475,000 head and Saturday at 163,000. For the week, 2,524,000 head, down 54,000 compared to the week previous and down 88,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 529.5 million pounds compared to 539.1 the week previous and 560.4 million last year. Year to date pork production -1.8% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter -1.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday continued lower on moderate demand with 114 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__292.36 -2.62
Select Cutout__264.84 -4.48
CME Feeder Cattle Index__153.72 -.06
CME Lean Hog Index__93.39 +.49
Pork Carcass Cutout__113.39 -2.90
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__72.92 -.86
October live cattle holding a lower trend since hitting a contract high back on August 24th with support down around $120 and nearby resistance at $125. October feeders looks similar to live cattle, down $20 over the past 5 weeks with support at $152 and resistance at $158. October lean hogs above all major moving averages now with support around $88 and resistance at $94.
Over in the grains, wheat futures continue to lead the way following a bullish Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains Summary last Thursday. Production estimates were decreased more than expected along with stocks lower than expected. Soybeans though under pressure to end the week as USDA increased old crop production by 81 MBU which then increased ending stocks by the same amount. Corn was caught in between the two as production was decreased but stocks were increased. Rains delayed harvest in the WCB this past week, but very beneficial rains for HRW fell across the Southern Plains.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money through the week ending 9/28 +30.3k Corn (net long 244.7k), -4.3k Chicago Wheat (net short 9.8k), +7.0k KC Wheat (net long 46.1k) and +9.6k Soybeans (net long 59.3k)
For the week, Friday September 24th through Friday October 1st, December Corn +$.14 ¾, March +$.15 ¼, November Soybeans -$.38 ½, January -$.38 ¼, December KC Wheat +$.39 ¾, March +$.38 ¾, December Chicago Wheat +$.31 ½, March +$.31 ¼, December MPLS Wheat +$.28 ½, March +$.28 ½, October Soybean Meal -$13.50/T, December -$15.30/T.
Grains trading steady to lower overnight with soybeans into new 6-month lows. Corn finished 2 lower, soybeans 7 lower and wheat 3 lower to 1 higher.
News quiet over the weekend. World wheat values continue to rally. Export inspections out later this morning as volume should be considerably better now with most Gulf facilities back up and running. USDA will update crop progress and conditions later this afternoon. USDA announced a private sale of 426,800 MT or 16.8 MBU of corn for delivery to Mexico.
Rains over the weekend from the Great Lakes to the Gulf with heavy rains in the forecast this week on the East Coast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the eastern half of the U.S. and below normal out West with above normal moisture in the North and West and below normal in the Southwest.
December corn still holding a lower trend with nearby support at $5.26 and resistance at $5.50. November soybeans, again into new recent lows overnight, breaking the summer spike low, with support next around $12.00 and nearby resistance at $12.90. December KC wheat back above all major moving averages, contract high at $7.69 on August 13th and support at $7.03. December Chicago wheat looks similar with the contract high at $7.86 ½ and support right around the $7 level. December MPLS wheat contract high at $9.37 ½ with nearby support around the $9 level. October Soybean Meal into new recent lows, levels not seen since last October with support next at $319 and resistance around $340.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700