Yearly Archives: 2018

Well, it took until late in the day to get it done, but Mother Nature dropping the hammer on feedlot country last week with rain and snow finally forced beef packers to pay up significantly for cash cattle. The trade two weeks ago was $119 in the Southern Plains. Friday’s trade gained $4 over that previous week, trading at $122-$123 in Kansas and mostly $123 with a few up to $124 in Texas. Nebraska traded $123 live and $195 dressed. The best part of that cash rally is that last year’s final week was trading at the same $123 price, meaning the same value for cash despite 2018 total beef production being up exponentially versus 2017’s number. Granted, without the weather there’s no way it…

Date: December 3rd, 2018 Livestock futures were mixed on Friday, not much action all week actually, but more winter weather forecasted for the Central Plains and hogs especially waiting for the results of the meetings between the U.S. and China over the weekend. Weekly export sales showed China jumping in for U.S. pork for both this year and next ahead of the meeting and also suggesting that the massive outbreak of African swine fever this fall is raising fears of an eventual supply shortfall. Cash feedlot trade confirmed late Friday at $1 higher, up to $118 live in all areas with a few clearing $118.50 in TX and steady at $185 dressed in NE. Early in the week trade in the North was weaker at…

Date: November 28th, 2018 Cattle markets still looking for direction this week after a friendly COF report and higher cash feedlot trade last week. Technically both look bullish and still carrying higher trends over the past 2 weeks. Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/26/2018 Receipts Week Ago Year Ago 9,477 6,895 7,074 Compared to last week: 600-800 lb. feeder steers mostly steady to 4.00 higher. 600-700 lb. feeder heifers 2.00-3.00 higher, heavier weight steers over 800 lbs. 5.00 higher with a few sales up to 11.00 higher and heifers over 700 lbs. mostly 7.00 higher with a few sales up to 16.00 higher. Steer calves mostly 1.00-5.00 higher. Heifer calves 1.00-6.00 higher. Demand good to very good, especially…

Date: November 23rd, 2018 Most salebarn reports so far this week reported higher undertones. Cash feedlot trade Tuesday & Wednesday at $116 to $117 in TX, $2 to $3 higher than last week, IA saw some trade at $113 to $115 live, call that $1 lower to $1 higher and light trade in NE at $116 live and $180 dressed, $2 to $4 higher. Wednesday midday, USDA released a friendly Cattle on Feed report along with a mixed Cold Storage report. November 2018 Cattle on Feed USDA Actual Avg Guess Cattle on Feed Nov 1 at 11.7 million head 103% 104.4% October Placements totaled 2.25 million 94% 99.8% October Marketings totaled 1.89 million 105% 103.8% On Feed numbers by state: (current vs previous year Nov…

Date: November 20th, 2018 Livestock futures finished higher yesterday, cattle were mixed throughout the day as hogs saw only moderate not aggressive buying to follow up the limit higher moves form Friday. Impressive though to see higher markets with the stock market under pressure again Monday. I would say most are looking for cash feedlot trade to get wrapped up prior to Thanksgiving even though the futures market will open back up for Friday trading. Joplin Regional Stockyards - Carthage, MO Livestock Auction Report for 11/19/2018 Receipts Week Ago Year Ago 6,410 3,030 9,875 Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 450 lbs steady to firm, over 500 lbs steady to 3.00 lower, too few yearlings last week for a good price comparison,…

Date: November 19th, 2018 Cash feedlot trade wrapped up in the South at $114 live which is steady with the week previous. Trade in NE and IA though was steady to $2 lower at $112 to $113 live and $176 to $178 on a dressed basis. Lean hogs locked limit higher on news that China discovered their first case of African swine fever in a wild boar, another 4 cases reported on farms on Friday and China now stating it is having a very difficult time controlling the spread of the deadly disease. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – W/E 11/16/2018 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This Week 307,700 29,100 31,600 368,400 Last Week 329,800 41,000 6,500 377,300 Last Year 320,200 26,600 2,200 349,000…

Meat complex trade finished mixed in hogs with the 2nd and 3rd contracts out higher and the rest lower. Live and feeder cattle trade was quietly lower which was a big change from some wide swings we’ve seen recently. Chart technicals in the cattle complex look terrible right now. The near term fundamentals looked pretty good going into last week, but when futures puked two Monday’s ago it really trimmed that bullish momentum. Unfortunately it wasn’t anything fundamental specific that led to that hard down day either. After it happened I talked about the frustration in seeing bigger, volatile moves in futures without fundamental justification, like we endured for a couple years not too long ago. Since that time, the volatility had tamed considerably and…

Morning Ag Markets 11.14.18

Date: November 13th, 2018 Cattle futures yesterday were mixed with hogs showing strong gains but both on light volume. I wouldn’t expect to see much change in direction here the week before Thanksgiving, cattle steady to weaker and hogs mixed to higher if cash prices can hold or even rebound. Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/12/2018 Receipts Week Ago Year Ago 9,000 9,992 10,818 Compared to last week: Feeder steers traded 6.00-8.00 lower. Feeder heifers 7.00-11.00 lower. Steer calves sold 4.00-9.00 lower on limited comparable receipts. Heifer calves 6.00-9.00 lower. Demand moderate. Winter weather has arrived as snow has fallen over most of the trade area. Some warmer weather is expected towards the end of the week. Feeder…

Cattle complex futures were able to shake off the heavy spread trading that was prevalent on Wednesday and get back to more normal type trade. Both the live and feeder markets closed mildly higher across all contract months. Lean hog futures didn’t shake the spreading. Front month December closed mildly higher and the next month out was down over $1, then a lot of mixed closes in the deeper deferreds. Actually pretty decent action across the meat complex aside from those Feb Hogs and it was all happening with cash hogs under pressure and product trade between the two markets under really heavy pressure. Pork product was already losing steam through October, but beef was moving aggressively higher. That came to a screeching halt when…