Date: January 17th, 2020
Livestock futures and grains finished mostly lower yesterday as it was a mass exodus or liquidation for Ag futures. Cash feedlot trade was rolling yesterday first in the South at $124 live, steady with last week. Feeders held back for a bit in the North but by late afternoon trades were reported also steady with last week at $124 live and $198 to $200 dressed. Volumes should be larger this week than last.
Winter Livestock – Dodge City, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/15/2020
Total Receipts: 4,353 Last Week: 6,455 Last Year: 1,983
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold mostly 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold steady to 2.00 higher. Weaned calves limited comparable weights. Steer calves 1.00 to 3.00 higher, heifer calves lower undertone noted. Overall, demand good to very good, quality average to attractive. Slaughter cows sold 1.00 to 3.00 lower. Bulls sold 3.00 to 5.00 higher.
Huss Livestock Market – Kearney, NE
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/15/2020
Total Receipts: 5,507 Last Week: 4,910 Last Year: 4,928
Compared to last week steers 550-700 lbs sold steady to 2.00 higher and steers over 700 lbs sold 1.00-3.00 lower. Heifers over 550 lbs sold steady to 2.00 lower.
Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. – Salina, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/16/2020
Total Receipts: 3,611 Last Week: 4,439
Compared to last week: Steers 600-1000 lbs 1.00-5.00 lower; 600 lbs and under lower undertone noted. Heifers 650-1000 lbs steady to 3.00 higher; 650 lbs and under lower undertone noted. Trade and demand moderate.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/16/2020
Total Receipts: 4,276 Last Week: 5,125 Last Year: 2,086
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold mostly steady to 1.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold steady to 2.00 higher using limited comparable weights. Weaned steer calves sold 2.00 to 4.00 higher. Weaned heifer calves 300-500 lbs sold 1.00 to 3.00 lower, 500-600 lbs sold steady to 2.00 higher. Overall, demand good to very good, quality average to attractive. Slaughter cows sold mostly steady. Not enough bulls for a market test.
Woodward Livestock Auction Feeder Cattle – Woodward, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/16/2020
Total Receipts: 5,156 Last Week: 7,652 Last Year: 4,220
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold steady to 4.00 lower. Feeder heifers 1.00-3.00 lower with exception to 750-800 lbs. which sold 3.00 higher. Steer calves sold unevenly steady. Heifer calves 1.00-4.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 122,000 head, matching last week and last year. Week to date now at 488,000 head, also matching last week and up 4,000 head from last year. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 497,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago and up 24,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date now at 1,990,000 head, up 3,000 compared to a week ago and up 100,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 115 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__212.90 +.37
Select Cutout__211.47 +1.80
CME Feeder Index__146.35 -.22
CME Lean Hog Index__60.15 +.62
Pork Carcass Cutout__75.45 +.80
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__51.04 -.94
National Wtd Avg Live Price__38.99 +.11, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__51.18 -.58
February live cattle holding to a sideways pattern since November with support first at $124.50 and the contract high from mid-December up at $127.90. January feeders showing a higher trend but unable to break through the $147.80 area. Support at $145 taken out yesterday with the next down at $143. February lean hog futures continue the long-term lower trend testing contract lows earlier this week with resistance around $70.
The anticipation for the signing of Phase 1 of the trade deal with China sure had been hyped up here recently and now that it is complete, the markets had a letdown. The term “Buy the rumor, sell the fact” sure sums it up. Of course no volume or specific commodity breakdowns were given but to see a commitment for a minimum of $36.5B worth of U.S. Ag products for this year and $43.5B for 2021 compared to the baseline of $24B from 2017 should still be friendly. Weekly export sales for the grains overall were friendly. USMCA or NAFTA 2.0 also passed the U.S. Senate, will be signed by President Trump and moves onto the Canadian Parliament which is great news for continued free trade with our most important Ag customers, Canada and Mexico.
Overnight, grains were firm most of the night. Corn finished 2 higher, soybeans steady to 1 lower and wheat 1 higher to 3 lower.
Markets will closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day with grains to reopen Monday night at 7 PM CST. The week long holiday celebrating the Chinese New Year begins on January 25th. If any sales are to be announced to help support the grains, it will have to take place next week or we risk pushing markets lower.
Scattered rains fell over Southern Brazil and Northern Argentina yesterday. Extended forecasts though calling for above normal temps and below normal precipitation. Here in the U.S., below normal temps dominate the North into next week with more rain and mixed precipitation for the Plains and South East. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for northern half of the U.S. with above normal precipitation for most grain areas, the highest amounts expected in the Southern Plains.
March corn chart not looking friendly with the break down to $3.75 ¼ yesterday, support next at $3.71 and the contract low at $3.65 ¾. Resistance is up at $3.92 then right around the $4 mark. March soybeans now below all major moving averages and looks to be the worst week in the past few months. Support next at $9.17 with resistance up around $9.40. March KC wheat still trending higher with support at $4.70 and resistance at $5.10. March Chicago wheat also still trending higher with support at $5.45 and resistance next up around $5.80 then $6. March soybean meal still holding a lower trend with the contract low down at $295.50 and resistance at $303.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700