Date: December 26, 2023
Livestock futures mixed to finish out the week with cattle futures holding gains week over week and lean hogs lower. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade as of mid-afternoon Friday reported $1 to $3 higher than the week previous from $170 to $171 live and $270 to $271 dressed.
Slightly bearish Cattle on Feed report from USDA after the close on Friday. Cattle and calves on feed totaled 12.0 million head on December 1, 2023, up 3% from a year ago and 1% over expectations. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.87 million head, 2% below last year but 2% higher than expectations. This is the fourth consecutive month with higher placements than expected. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.75 million head, 7% percent below a year ago and in line with expectations.
Also on Friday, USDA releases the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report. All hogs and pigs totaled 75 million as of December 1st, up slightly from a year ago, down slightly from September 1st and right in line with expectations. 69 million were market hogs, again in line with expectations while 6 million kept for breeding which is down 3% from a year ago and lower than expected. Iowa hog producers accounted for the largest inventory among the states at 24.9 million head. Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 9.10 million head and North Carolina was third with 7.80 million head. The September through November pig crop was higher than expected and matching a year ago.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…December Live Cattle +$1.82, February -$.82, January Feeder Cattle +$1.85, March +$2.22, February Lean Hogs -$.55, April -$1.05. Choice Boxed Beef +$1.29 at $292.93 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$2.12 at $82.21.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/17/2023 – 12/23/2023
Receipts: Current Week 16,784 Last Week: 27,743 Last Year: 35,303
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers lightly tested and steady to 4.00 higher. Steer calves 4.00-12.00 higher. Heifer calves 1.00-5.00 higher. Demand good for all classes. Large spreads continue between steer calves and heifer calves with a .50-.65 cent per pound difference being pretty common.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 621,000 head, down 28,000 from the week previous but up 69,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 524.3 million pounds with year to date -4.6% vs. last year and year to date slaughter -4.2%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,426,000 head, down 256,000 compared to the week previous but up 643,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 524.4 million pounds with year to date +1.1% vs. last year and year to date slaughter +2.1%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate demand with 90 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.80 @ 292.93, Select Cutout -.12 @ 261.15
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 219.81, Lean Hog Index @ 66.25
Pork Carcass Cutout on Friday +.86 @ 82.21
December live cattle and cash converging last week at $170 with only few days left until expiration. The February contract still trading at a discount to December with nearby support at $167, the low for December at $162.40 and resistance up at $171. January feeders holding a higher trend this month and taking out the 3-month long lower trend. Last week’s high up to $225.22 with resistance next at $232.20 and nearby support at $217 with the contract low from earlier this month down at $209.15. February lean hogs have been very choppy over the past month with a recent high last week at $72.45, resistance next up at $77 and support at $69.50.
The grains on Friday were fairly quiet heading into the 3-day Christmas break. Early week losses though locked in losses for the week. Friendly news late in the afternoon that after significant Ag trade lobbying this past week, the U.S. border patrol is removing restrictions and reopening rail crossing into Mexico at Eagle Pass and El Paso. Brazil rains expected over the weekend and then get spotting again. US$ moved into new lows and energies holding a short term rally which are both supportive to the grain markets.
Weekly closes in the grains…March Corn -$.10, May -$.09 ½, January Soybeans -$.16, March -$.25 ¼, March Chicago Wheat -$.13, May -$.12, March KC Wheat -$.19 ¾, May -$.20 ¼, March MPLS Wheat -$.16 ½, May -$.15 ¼, January Soybean Meal -$6.0/T, March -$5.5/T.
A hard open this morning with opening calls steady to higher. Soybeans expected to be the leader higher this morning as China continues to buy U.S. beans and Brazil weather still very questionable. Outside markets have equities steady to higher, US$ lower and energies higher with crude oil up $2/barrel.
Snow in the Northern and Central Plains continues today with scattered moisture the rest of this week for the eastern half of the U.S. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps in the Northern Plains, West Coast and Southwest and below normal temps in the Southeast with above normal precipitation across the southern half of the U.S. and below normal for the PNW and Northern Plains to the Northeast.
South America over the weekend had decent 1 to 2 inch rains across Brazil. The 6-10 day forecasts call for below normal precipitation for the southern Brazilian grain areas with above normal temperatures for the north and below normal precipitation for the southern Argentine grain areas with above normal temperatures for the western areas.
March corn down to a new contract low last week at $4.68 ¼ with resistance at $4.85 then $4.94. January soybeans very choppy this month with support at $12.94 and resistance at $13.28 then $13.44, the high so far in December. March Chicago wheat trying to hold support around $6.10 with the next at $6.02 and resistance at $6.50. March KC wheat trying to hold support around $6.20 with resistance at $6.77. March MPLS wheat has support at $7.09 with resistance around $7.30. January soybean meal holding a two-month long lower trend with support next at $385 and resistance at $413.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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