Date: October 3rd, 2022
Livestock futures finished the week under pressure as corn and wheat popped higher from the bullish quarterly stocks and small grains report from USDA on Friday. Equites were also lower and pressure continues from lower beef and pork prices. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week was mostly steady to just a shade weaker compared to the week previous. Trade in the South at $142 to $143 live and trade in the North from $144 to $148 live and $228 up to $233 dressed.
For the week, Friday September 23rd through Friday September 30th, October Live Cattle -$.97, December -$1.50, October Feeder Cattle -$4.17, November -$3.62, October Lean Hogs -$3.40, December -$6.57. Boxed Beef, Choice -$4.88 @ $243.75, Select +$.82 @ $220.13, Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.34 @ $97.59.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/25/22-10/1/22
Current Week: 38,112 Last Report 9/19/22: 31,385 Last Year: 27,482
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 5.00 to 10.00 lower. Feeder heifers 6.00-12.00 lower . Demand moderate to good. Steer calves 5.00- 10.00 lower. Heifer calves 4.00-9.00 lower. Demand moderate for calves.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 664,000 head, down 3,000 from the week previous but up 24,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 549 million pounds last week with year to date +1.4% vs. last year and slaughter +1.5%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,526,000 head, down 12,000 compared to the week previous but up 9,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 534.2 million pounds last week with year to date -2.5% compared to a year ago and slaughter -3.1%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower for Choice but steady to higher for Select on moderate to weak demand with 74 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__243.75 -2.33
Select Cutout__220.13 +.35
CME Feeder Cattle Index__175.46 -.48
CME Lean Hog Index__94.91 -.23
Pork Carcass Cutout __97.59 -1.21
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__85.08 -3.27, 3,016 head
October live cattle hit a new recent high back on September 20th at $146.77 but since have been under pressure with support next around $142. October feeders now the front month and holding a lower trend since topping out at the contract at $190.20 in mid-August. Support next at $173.60, the contract low at $168.87 and resistance at $180. October lean hogs also holding a lower trend with a new recent low last week at $88.27 and resistance up around $93.
Wheat was the leader higher last Friday from a bullish small grains summary. USDA decreased the U.S. wheat production a surprisingly 133 MBU. Winter wheat production was reduced by 94 MBU, much more than expected, and spring and durum reduced which was certainly not expected at all. Wheat stocks though were hardly changed at 1.776 BBU. Corn stocks though reduced by 148 MBU and 135 MBU under the average trade estimates. Last year’s production was reduced by 41.4 MBU while old crop soybean production was increased by 30 MBU and stocks increased 34 MBU. It is already a tight supply scenario for U.S. corn and especially in the west or major feeding region. Basis continues to strengthen as fall harvest progresses. U.S. weather remains wide open for harvest to continue with mostly warm and dry conditions.
For the week, Friday September 23rd through Friday September 30th, December Corn +$.00 ¾, March +$.02 ¼, November Soybeans -$.61, January -$.56 ¼, December KC Wheat +$.41, March +$.38, December Chicago Wheat +$.41, March +$.38 ¼, December MPLS Wheat +$.32 ¾, March +$.30 ¼, October Soybean Meal -$36.70/T.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 9/27 selling 10.0k corn contracts (net long 237.8k), adding 1.3k Chicago wheat (net short -14.3k), adding 4.8k KC wheat (net long 23.9k) and selling 9.8k soybeans (net long 94.8k).
Grains, equites and energies all higher overnight. Corn finished the overnight 8 higher, wheat again the leader at 10 to 14 higher and even pulling soybeans 2 to 3 higher. USDA announced a private sale of 110,000 MT or 4 MBU of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. China is on holiday this week. The war continues in Ukraine as NATO now has told the Russian military that if they see tactical nukes moving towards the border they will be taken out with missiles.
Rains expected in the Southwest this week with light chances stretching up into CO and western KS up to the Great Lakes. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and below normal east with below normal moisture for all expect in the Southwest.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with resistance at the $7 level and support at $6.61 then $6.54. November soybeans continue to chop sideways the past couple months with support at $13.56 and nearby resistance around $14.25. December KC Wheat a new recent high last week at $10.10 ¾ with resistance at $10.19 and support at $9.27. December Chicago wheat also a new recent high last week at $9.45 ¾ with resistance at $9.54 and support at $8.54. December MPLS wheat has resistance at $10.56 and support at $9.29. October soybean meal sharply lower since a new contract high on September 22nd at $463.70 with support next at $400.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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