Date: December 20, 2023
Very little follow through buying on Tuesday after new recent highs on Monday across the livestock futures. Cattle traders are a bit nervous heading into the holiday trading season especially with the December Cattle on Feed report coming this Friday after the close and then a 3-day weekend. Most are calling for a higher on feed, 1-2% higher vs. a year ago but lower placements, 2-5% lower than last year. Only very light volume cash fed cattle trade reported so far this week in the North at $169 live which is at the top end of last week’s range. The Quarterly Hog and Pigs report is also coming this Friday afternoon with the average trade estimate for all hogs as of December 1st at 100% vs. last year and kept for breeding at 99%.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 10,363 Last Week: 8,693 Last Year: 9,019
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 7.00-18.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 5.00-17.00 higher. Supply was heavy with very good demand. This last feeder sale of the year was a barn burner for Joplin Regional Stockyards. 7 weight index steers averaged $233 and 8 weights averaged $217 to $224.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,064 Last Week: 8,383 Last Year: 7,743
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady. Limited test of feeder steers over 800 lbs. and heifers over 650 lbs. Steer calves 4.00-8.00 higher. Heifer calves mostly steady. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle; very good for calves. The price spread between a steer and heifer calf remains large as producers continue to buy for winter grazing. Nice rains fell last week and fall pastures are in pretty good condition. 7 weight index steers averaged $223 to $230 and 8 weights averaged $210 to $217.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,453 Last Week: 5,797 Last Year: 2,979
Compared to last week: CME feeder cattle futures are rebounding today, bringing cattle prices up. Light steers 450-600 lbs were steady to substantially higher. Heavier steers 800-850 lbs 8.00-16.00 higher. Light heifers, 450-650 lbs, were 10.00 higher with instances substantially higher. Heifers 700-800 lbs were 5.00-8.00 higher. Heavier heifers 850-950 lbs mostly steady to 2.00 higher with instances up to 10.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $222 to $225 and 8 weights averaged $216 to $229.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 124,000 head, down 3,000 from last week but matching last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 491,000 head, up 17,000 compared to a week ago and up 1,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on moderate to good demand with 135 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.10 @ 288.83, Select Cutout -.56 @ 263.16
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 219.91, Lean Hog Index @ 66.37
Pork Carcass Cutout -.91 @ 83.06
December live cattle up to a new recent high on Monday at $169.75 with resistance next around $172.50 and support at $167. January feeders holding a higher trend this month and taking out the 3-month long lower trend. Monday was also a new recent high at $225 with resistance next around $232 and support at $217. February lean hogs have been very choppy over the past month but also up to a recent high on Monday at $72.45 with resistance next up at $77 and support at $69.50.
Fall crops were under pressure on Tuesday as wheat rebounded and held onto decent gains. Egypt purchased another 7 cargoes of Russian wheat, still the cheapest in the world, but prices were similar to early December trades. South American weather has not changed much, still dry in Brazil this week but better rain chances pick up later this week and into next week. The really bearish news came with US border patrol shutting down rail lines into Mexico supposedly due to the border crisis. This of course negatively effects our corn market as Mexico is our #1 buyer.
Grains stabilized overnight trading both sides of unchanged in fairly tight ranges. Corn finished 1 higher, soybeans 2 lower to 2 higher and wheat steady to 3 lower. Chinese meal futures down to a new low for the year with corn futures down to a new 3-year low. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies higher with crude oil up $1.20/barrel.
No 8 AM flash export sales this morning. South Korea booked one cargo of optional origin corn. Chinese import data showing Brazil remains the #1 grain supplier with 3.22 MMT of corn shipped in November and 5.29 MMT of soybeans. November is typically a time when US soy exports to China are strong, but November 2023 U.S. bean exports were only 2.3 MMT, down from 3.29 MMT last November. For the Jan-Nov 2023 period Brazil supplied 8.8 MMT of corn, while US supplies tumbled to 6.5 MMT, half of last year’s volume.
The weekly EIA report will be out later this morning with expectations for the recent trends to continue. Ethanol production is expected to remain steady to slightly higher and blender demand is expected to be very strong ahead of Christmas keeping stocks steady.
Heavy snow expected in the Mountain West through Christmas with scattered rains covering the eastern half of the U.S. and the heaviest amounts in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across most of the country, below normal only in the Southwest with above normal moisture on the West Coast and eastern half of the U.S. and below normal precipitation from the Southwest up into the Northern Plains.
March corn back to test the lows this week with the contract low on November 29th at $4.70 ½. Nearby resistance is at $4.85 then $4.94. January soybeans still holding a higher trend this month but very choppy with support at $12.94 and resistance at $13.44. March Chicago wheat has support at $6.02 with resistance at $6.50. March KC wheat has support at $6.23 with resistance at $6.77. March MPLS wheat has support at $7.09 with resistance around $7.50. January soybean meal has support at $398 with resistance at $415.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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