Date: November 23rd, 2020
Livestock futures finished last week mixed. Cash feedlot trade last week steady at mostly $110 live and $172 on a dressed basis. Beef prices continue to rally, up nearly $30 so far this month and exports are improving. Last week’s sales were a new marketing year high. All is tremendously supportive yet futures are flat and it is hard to bullish nearby cattle with supplies available and COVID surging.
USDA Cattle on Feed after the close on Friday reported 12.0 million head on feed as of November 1st which is 101% vs. last year but slightly under the average trade estimates. Placements in October were friendly at 2.19 million head, 11 percent below 2019. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.87 million head, slightly below 2019, but adjusted for the less business days is actually friendly at 104.5% vs. a year ago.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 11/20/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 321,900 45,400 9,800 377,100
Last Week: 305,300 75,100 10,400 390,800
Year Ago: 323,900 40,700 21,000 385,600
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold uneven, depending on the day of the week the auction occurred. Early week sales of calves and yearling were steady to 3.00 higher, while those later in the week were steady to 4.00 lower. Local auctions see a wide variation of type and kind coming to town this time of year and runs the gamut from thinner, harder yearling type to fleshy, bawling calves on their first trip off the cow-calf producers farm or ranch. Many
ranchers have now had time to have calves on a vaccination and weaning protocol for 45-60 days; the ideal time that backgrounders want them to be able to turn out and not have any health problems. Demand for the week was moderate to good. There are some areas that have enough wheat to turn out some grazers after the moisture received 3 or 4 weeks ago.
For the week, Friday November 13th through Friday November 20th, December Live Cattle -$1.82, February -$1.57, November Feeder Cattle -$.72, January -$3.27, December Lean Hogs – $.77, February +$.77. Boxed Beef, Choice +$12.37 @ $238.35, Select +$5.52 @ $214.98. Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.97 @ $78.17.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 115,000 head, down 3,000 from the week previous and down 1,000 from last year. Saturday’s kill estimated at 72,000 head, bringing the week to date to 665,000 head, up 12,000 from the week previous but down 3,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 559.1 million pounds compared to 549.8 million the week previous and 553.7 million last year. Year to date beef production is -1.0% compared to last year with cattle slaughter -3.6%
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 485,000 head, up 8,000 compared to week previous but up 3,000 compared to a year ago. Saturday’s kill is estimated at 277,000 bringing week to date up to 2,711,000 head, up 28,000 compared to the week previous but down 56,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 589.6 million pounds compared to 581.8 million the week previous and 593.3 million a year ago. Year to date pork production is +1.8% compared to a year ago with hog slaughter +0.8%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday, higher with 105 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__238.35 +.65
Select Cutout__214.98 +1.09
CME Feeder Index__136.75 -.76
CME Lean Hog Index__68.14 -.63
Pork Carcass Cutout__78.17 -1.05
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__58.54 -.43
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__58.73 +.25
December live cattle broke through nearby support to end last week with the next the low from October down at $102.52 and resistance now around $109 to $110. January feeders now the front month and also breaking nearby support and the higher trend over the past month. Nearby support is at $131 with the October low down at $124.25 and resistance at $138 then $141.50. December lean hogs now holding a lower trend since October with support tested last week at $63.50 then down around $62 with resistance up around $66.
Grains finished the week mostly higher, continued to be led by the soy complex. Weekly export sales though reported last week were the lowest for the marketing year for soybeans and daily sales announcements have been few and far between the past couple weeks. Dry conditions in South America, specifically central and southern Brazil have been the most supportive factor recently. Funds were less aggressive for the second week in a row but continue to hold massive long positions in both corn and soybeans. Estimates heading into the weekend put managed money longs near 290K contracts of corn and 200K contracts of soybeans.
For the week, Friday November 13th through Friday November 20th, December Corn +$.12 ¾, March +$.08 ¾, January Soybeans +$.33, March +$.33 ¼, December KC Wheat -$.01 ¾, March -$.01 ¼, December Chicago Wheat -$.00 ¼, March -$.02 ½, December MPLS Wheat -$.10 ¾, March -$.08 ¾, December Soybean Meal +$6.60/T, January +$4.70/T.
Overnight markets all friendly with grains, energies and equities higher and US$ lower. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 5 higher, soybeans 7 to 14 higher and wheat 4 to 9 higher.
Most of Brazil was entirely dry over the weekend with forecasts remaining dry and accumulated precipitation is well below the levels needed for an optimal yield. Both corn and soybeans hit new contract highs overnight with the nearby January soybean contract touching the $12 mark.
USDA announced a daily sale of 334,000 MT or 13.15 MBU of corn sold for unknown destinations. Chinese customs data reported October corn imports at 1.14 MMT and year to date at 7.82 MMT, up 97.3% from last year.
Heavy rains still in the forecast for parts of the Corn Belt and Southeast over the next couple days. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps centered over the Northern Plains stretching to the West Coast with below normal temps in the Southeast and above normal moisture for the East Coast with below normal for the rest of the country.
December corn with a new contract high overnight at $4.29 ¾. Nearby resistance from the continuous weekly chart next at $4.32 then around $4.50 with support at $4.17 then $4.09. January soybeans again touching the $12 mark, the new contract high, with the spike high from June 2016 at $12.08 ½. Nearby support at $11.38. December KC wheat chopping sideways the past couple months with support at $5.32 and resistance at $5.70. December Chicago has held a higher trend since late June but the lower trend since mid-October looking to break that with support at $5.80 and resistance at $6.13.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700