Date: November 29, 2023
Gotta love when turnaround Tuesday works higher, at least for all livestock and grains except just a few months for corn. These markets are certainly not for faint of heart lately with the nearby January feeder cattle up the daily limit of $8.25 on Tuesday after losing over $14 the past two trading sessions. Daily trading limits for feeders today out the $12.25 which also pushes live cattle daily limits out to $10! Live cattle followed the feeders higher yesterday with gains of $2.87 to $4.20, but no limit higher moves. Even lean hogs held onto triple digit gains for the front 3 months. Only light volume cash fed cattle trade so far this week at $175 live, $2 lower than last week and a few at $270 dressed, $9 off from the weighted average from a week ago. Packers continue to lower bids with the collapsing futures market. This also means some very strong positive basis levels for those fed cattle that are hedged.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,664 Last Week: 10,617 Last Year: 10,063
Compared to last week feeder steers and heifers sold 8.00-17.00 lower. Supply was heavy with moderate demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $229 to $232 and 8 weights averaged $213 to $223.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,738 Last Week: 5,160 Last Year: 6,254
Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 750 lbs. steady to 3.00 higher; few steers over 750 lbs. and feeder heifers 3.00-6.00 lower. Demand for feeder cattle moderate at best. Feeder cattle futures traded sharply lower today, following last Friday’s sharp declines. Steer calves mostly steady. Heifer calves 4.00-8.00 higher as the gap between steers and heifers slowly begins to narrow. Several weaned calves available and demand very good for these. 7 weight index steers averaged $223 to $227.50 and 8 weights averaged $209.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,992 Last Week: 2,094 Last Year: 3,409
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 6.00-8.00 higher. Steer calves had a slightly lower undertone noted. Heifers mostly steady to 3.00 lower. Demand good. Quality plain through attractive.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,730 Last Week: 1,865 Last Year: 3,850
Compared to last week: Light steer calves, 600-700 lbs were 9.00-10.00 higher. Yearling steers, 900 lbs, were 4.00 lower this week. Flesh condition and color brought a discount. Limited numbers for light heifers on the previous sale for comparison. Yearling heifers. 950 lbs, were steady to 1.00 higher. Several large groups of light cattle offered. Many load lots of yearlings today. Demand was good. 7 weight index steers averaged $219 to $232.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 484,000 head, down 2,000 compared to a week ago and compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on Choice but lower on Select on good demand with 164 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +.92 @ 298.17, Select Cutout -1.45 @ 266.35
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 226.96, Lean Hog Index @ 71.66
Pork Carcass Cutout -3.95 @ 84.80
It took all day, but both live cattle and feeders were able to break above the previous days high. December live cattle down to a new recent low on Monday at $168.42, the lowest since this past May, with support at $168 and nearby resistance at $178. January feeders also down to a new recent low on Monday at $212.12 with the contract low at $210.45 and nearby resistance now at last week’s high at $232.20. March forward contracts all hit new contract lows on Monday. December lean hogs hit a new recent low last Friday at $67 with support next at the contract low from October at $65.40 and nearby resistance at $71.75.
As stated earlier, grains flipped higher for beans and wheat on Tuesday while corn held small losses on the front few months. December KC wheat the largest gains on the day after making a new contract low and posting a key reversal higher. Both Chicago and MPLS wheat tested the lows, which are holding so far, but also did not break through Monday’s high. Lately in the soy complex it has been meal and beans leading the way higher. That flipped yesterday with meal lower, beans still higher and soybean oil holding gains and now nearly a month long higher trend. Beans were the leader early yesterday as nearby forecasts are now delaying the rains in central Brazil. Outside markets were helpful as well with energies higher and the US$ dipping down to a new 3-month low yesterday.
Soybeans and wheat continued higher overnight with corn still stuck in the mud. Corn spreads continue to widen and the nearby December contract down another tick for a new recent low overnight. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 lower, soybeans 2 to 5 higher and wheat 3 to 9 higher. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ higher and energies higher with crude oil up $.80/barrel. OPEC still planning to formally meet tomorrow and announce production cuts yet negotiations are ongoing for just how much each country will cut back.
Private Brazil soybean production numbers ranging from 163 to 152 MMT with USDA at 163 earlier this month and Brazil’s CONAB at 162.4 MMT. Planting pace still running about 10% behind. Global feed wheat values are almost even now but US HRW still at a hefty premium to Russia and the EU. Taiwan and South Korea both booked some U.S. and Canadian wheat this week. Australian wheat harvest continues but heavy rains and wind causing damage and up to 1 MMT expected to be lower quality feed wheat. Weekly EIA energy report coming out later this morning with most expecting ethanol production to increase 2% to 3% and blender demand to remain steady. First notice day for December grain contracts on Thursday, any longs are subject to delivery. There are no daily trading limits on the front month beginning Thursday as well and volume will begin to thin.
Heavy rains still in the forecast for the Southeast heading into the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the Central Plains and out West with normal to below normal for the South and East Coast and above normal precipitation in the PNW and Northeast with below normal across the southern half of the U.S.
December corn again down to a new recent overnight at $4.50 with nearby resistance at $4.80. January soybeans still very choppy over the past month from $13 to $13.98 ½. The next upside target is at $14.20 with strong support at $12.98. December Chicago wheat hit a new contract low on Monday at $5.27 ½ with resistance around $5.70. December KC wheat a new contract low on Tuesday at $5.78 ½ with resistance around $6.50. December MPLS wheat a new contract low Monday at $6.82 ½ with resistance at $7.40. December soybean meal up to a new contract high on November 15th at $479 with nearby support at $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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