Date: November 15, 2023
Moderate to strong follow through buying developed early in cattle futures on Tuesday. By late morning though, some of that enthusiasm had waned as gains were cut in half, yet we still held in positive territory for all but the nearby November feeder contract. Some of that upward momentum was halted as private average trade estimates were released for this Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Most are looking for another bearish report with November 1st on feed numbers at 102% vs. last year and October placements at 107%. October marketings are expected to be better than month ago but still only 98% vs. a year ago. Cash fed cattle trade yet to develop with only very light volume so far in the WCB at $178 live which was the lower end of last week’s trade.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/14/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,094 Last Week: 3,516 Last Year: 2,840
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold mostly steady except for some of the higher quality consignments that were weaned and vaccinated sold with a firm undertone, but then on the flip side, fleshy heifers over 550 lbs found light demand and sold 5.00 to spots 15.00 lower. Supply and demand were moderate.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/14/2023 – Final
This Week: 1,853 Last Week: 3,352 Last Year: 3,295
Compared to last week, steer calves under 700 lbs. sold 4.00-8.00 lower and same weight heifers sold 2.00-5.00 lower. Yearlings were not well tested. Demand was moderate on a light supply. Health concerns were a bigger issue with calves than the volatility of the futures market. For examples…550-590 weaned steers averaged $278.85 and unweaned $252, 600-650 weaned steers averaged $263.38 vs. $239.23 unweaned
Philip Livestock Auction – Philip, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/14/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,884 Last Week: 6,695 Last Year: 3,420
Compared to last week Feeder Steers 350 to 500 10.00 to 15.00 lower, 500 to 550 Steady to 4.00 lower, 550 to 600 6.00 to 8.00 lower, 600 to 650 Steady to 4.00 lower, 700 to 750 Steady to 1.00 higher, Feeder Heifers 350 to 400 6.00 to 8.00 lower, 400 to 450 8.00 to 10.00 lower, 450 to 500 6.00 to 8.00 lower, 500 to 550 Steady to 2.00 higher, 550 to 700 Steady to 2.00 lower. Very Good Demand for several long strings, many load lots, and many many packages of Feeder Steers and Feeder Heifers which sold on a Moderate to Active Market.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, up 1,000 from last week but down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 484,000 head, down 5,000 compared to a week ago but matching a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on good demand with 144 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -2.18 @ 295.67, Select Cutout -1.36 @ 267.88
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 228.64, Lean Hog Index @ 76.13
Pork Carcass Cutout +.83 @ 87.60
December live cattle hit a new recent low last Friday at $173.15, the lowest since May, with support next at $168 and resistance at $185. November feeders also down to a new recent low last Friday at $227.77, that took out the May low. Support next down at $225 with resistance at $242.75. December lean hogs hit a new recent high last week at $74.27 with the next upside target at $76.10 and support right around the $70 level.
Grains were mixed on Tuesday as most started steady to lower but wheat quickly took the reins as the leader higher. Those gains faded both for KC and Chicago wheat as the trading day progressed so the soy complex picked up the leadership higher role yet again. Soybeans again into new recent highs for the 2nd consecutive day and meal into new contract highs. NOPA domestic crush report will be out late this morning with expectations of a new all-time monthly soy crush of 187.2 MBU. The previous record was December 2021 at 186.4 MBU. Brazil weather still the main driver as forecasts look better two weeks out but it seems lately that once we get there those rains do not develop…sounds very familiar to parts of the U.S. this past season? There is some scattered rain chances for this weekend which if they come through could pressure the fall crop futures next week. Corn also made new recent highs and look to test nearby resistance just one day after making new recent lows and reversing higher.
Grains traded both sides of unchanged again overnight with fairly tight trading ranges. Corn traded a nickel range overnight and beans traded a dime to 13 cent range. Corn finished the overnight 2 lower, soybeans 1 to 3 lower and wheat steady to 3 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ higher and energies lower with crude oil down $.70/barrel. USDA reported a private sale this morning of 124,000 MT or 4.9 MBU of corn sold to Japan.
The 6-10 day outlook for South America calling for below normal precipitation for the west central and northeastern Brazilian grain areas with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the southern Argentine grain areas with normal temperatures. Clear skies still over most areas here in the U.S. this week allowing fall harvest to wrap up. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps now in the South and eastern half of the U.S. with above normal temps and below normal precipitation out West and above normal precipitation still from the Rockies to the East Coast.
December corn down to new low at $4.61 before reversing higher on Monday with support next at $4.55 ¾ from the continuous weekly chart and nearby resistance at $4.81. January soybeans have nearby support at $13.26 then at $12.98 with a new recent high again overnight at $13.98 ½ and the next upside target at $14.20. December Chicago wheat still holding a higher trend with support at $5.54 ½ and resistance at $6.04 ½. December KC wheat hitting a new recent low on October 31st at $6.25 ½ with resistance at $6.88. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on October 31st at $7.03 ¼ with resistance at $7.46. December soybean meal up to a new contract high again overnight at $479 with the next upside target at $500 and nearby support down at $422.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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