Date: August 17th, 2022
Cattle futures held triple digits higher as grains fell off for the second day in a row and have already taking out most of last week’s gains. It was easy to define the support for all cattle futures as equites were higher and beef prices higher as well. A few deferred feeder contracts even hit new contract highs. Cattle on Feed report coming this Friday after the close with the markets expecting the same on feed total as a year ago with 1 to 2% lower placements but also lower marketings. Light volume cash fed cattle trade so far this week in the North at $146 live, steady with last week. Asking prices in the South now jumping from $142 on Monday up to $145 yesterday. Lean hogs collapsed on Tuesday as a test of the recent and new contract highs failed the past couple trading sessions which led to a technical selloff. Pork values were also under pressure yesterday but cash values shot higher.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/15/2022 – Final
This Week: 6,001 Last Week: 7,006 Last Year: 6,341
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers lightly tested, as bulk of the sale was calves. Feeder cattle and calves sold 4.00-8.00 higher, instance to 15.00 higher on calves. Demand very good for all classes. 7 weight index steers averaging $180-$184 and the 8 weight index steers averaged $173-$175.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/15/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,000 Last Week: 2,694 Last Year: 2,505
Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder steers and heifers sold with steady to higher undertones, except 1100 lbs – 1150 lbs steady to 4.00 lower. Some nice green grass calves were brought in today since the pasture is dried up. The light weight calves are hard to find right now creating a frenzy of bidders at the auction today.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/15/2022 – Final
This Week: 4,348 Last Week: 4,013 Last Year: 4,801
Compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded steady to 5.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $181-$187 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $172.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/16/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,064 Last Week: 1,661 Last Year: 2,995
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded 4.00-8.00 higher with some peewee calves 12.00 higher. Feeder steers and heifers were not well tested however undertones were firm.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, matching last week and up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago and up 5,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice but lower on Select on Tuesday on good demand with 161 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__265.44 +.98
Select Cutout__239.12 -.60
CME Feeder Cattle Index__179.04 +.76
CME Lean Hog Index__121.06 -.65
Pork Carcass Cutout __121.15 -3.76
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__129.19 +13.58, 17,343 head
August live cattle taking a run at the contract high yesterday which was hit this spring at $141.82 with support down at $139. August feeders holding a 3-month long higher trend, hitting a new 6-month high yesterday at $182.50, resistance next at $185 and support at $178. October lean hogs testing trendline support around $96, price support next at $95 and the contract high at $101.65.
Grains once again leaking lower and led by the soy complex. November soybeans have now given back all of last week’s gains and taken out the short term higher trend. Most of this pressure can be attributed to the increased precip that has fallen in the WCB over the past few days covering all of NE and MO, the northern half of KS and the western half of IA. These areas had been the hardest hit the first half of August and will surely help almost all the beans in this region. The extended forecasts through the rest of the month also much less threatening with below normal temps and above normal moisture from the Southwest up through the Southern Plains and into the Corn Belt. Throw in the tensions with China and so far safe loadings of up to 20 grain vessels from Ukraine, it’s hard to find bullish news right to stop the losses.
Grains bouncing higher overnight after testing the lows from yesterday’s trading range. Equities pointing lower this morning with a frim US$ and energies. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 5 higher, soybeans 13 to 19 higher and wheat 5 to 8 higher.
Heavy rains in the forecast for the South heading into this weekend and early next week. The NWS 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps and above normal moisture from the Southwest up into the Corn Belt.
September corn a new recent high last Thursday at $6.40 ½, resistance next up around $6.65 and trendline support being tested now at $6.08. The December contract looks similar, a new recent high last Thursday at $6.42 ¾, resistance around $6.60 and trendline support at $6.07. November soybeans breaking through the month long higher trend this week with support next at $13.76 then around $13.60 and resistance at last week’s high at $14.64 ¾. September KC Wheat chopping sideways since early July with nearby support at $8.60 and resistance at $8.94. September Chicago wheat sideways to lower with a new recent low on August 3rd at $7.52 and resistance at $8.20. September MPLS wheat also a new recent low on August 3rd at $8.64 ¾ with resistance at $9.28. September soybean meal a new contract high on August 10th at $468.10, crashing back through the higher trendline this week with price support next at $425.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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