Date: September 17th, 2018
Only light volume to report heading into Friday afternoon for cash feedlot trade. Futures surged higher though, October finishing limit higher for the day, which should result in higher cash trade. NE saw active trade at $108 to $110 live and $172 to $175 dressed which is already steady to $2 higher than the week previous. Trade was confirmed late Friday in the South as high as $112 live.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – W/E 09/14/2018
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 184,400 60,400 44,800 289,600
Last Week 122,200 47,800 57,200 227,200
Last Year 193,100 58,100 20,800 272,000
Compared to last week, calves and yearlings sold fully steady to 5.00 higher with many major markets compared to two weeks ago coming back from last week’s Labor Day Holiday. Continued good demand remains for calves and yearlings with active bidding have helped to keep the uptrend intact. We are entering the time of year where every week we are starting to see more calves coming to market. With an abundant feed supply of corn and winter wheat grazing around the corner will help to keep cost of gains low and demand very good for feeders. The tone of the fed cattle market seems to be on a gradual improvement with very good beef demand from the consumer and exports. No doubt, this year packers and retailers have benefited far more than the cattle feeder has, as we work through plentiful summer supplies.
For the week, Friday September 7th to Friday September 14th, October Live Cattle +$3.85, December +$3.62, September Feeder Cattle +$4.45, October +$5.92, October Lean Hogs +$.57, December -$.15. Boxed Beef, Choice -$2.29 @ $204.27, Select -$.62 @ $196.47. Pork Carcass Cutout +$5.97 @ $74.53.
Cattle slaughter from Friday is estimated at 119,000 head, matching the week previous and up 4,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 652,000 head, up 89,000 from the week previous and up 6,000 compared to last year. Hog slaughter from Friday is estimated at 402,000 head, down 64,000 from the week previous and down 47,000 from last year. For the week, 2,315,000 head, up 100,000 from the week previous but down 145,000 compared to last year.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and lower on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 105 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__204.27 +.23
Select Cutout__196.47 -.77
CME Feeder Index:__152.71 +.11
CME Lean Hog Index.__51.85 +1.77
Pork Carcass Cutout__74.53 +3.48
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__49.21 -1.54
National Wtd Avg Live__ 38.26 +.95, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__48.96 -.30
October live cattle again limit higher on Friday and into a new 6-month high. The next area of resistance is from $114.65 to $115 then at $117. Feeders scored new contract highs on Friday but did pull back from those levels into the close. Looking at the continuous weekly chart, the next area of resistance is from $161 to $161.50 from this past November. October lean hogs are still very choppy yet holding a higher trend over the past couple weeks. Resistance is up at $58 then $59.50 with support at $54.
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Over in the grains, the fall crops were mixed but wheat prices shot higher to end the week. Wheat buyers are now complaining about Russian wheat quality and 2 tenders to be decided over the weekend to Tunisia and Saudi Arabia could involve quite a bit of U.S. wheat as prices are back to competitive. The U.S. administration is reportedly moving forward with the next round of $200B tariffs against China which could cause the Chinese to back away from scheduled talks. Meal continues to be pressured as new cases of African swine fever popped up in wild boars in Belgium as well as additional spreading on small hog operations in China.
For the week, Friday September 7th to Friday September 14th, December Corn -$.15 ¼, March -$.15 ½, November Soybeans -$.13 ½, January -$.13, December KC Wheat +$.01 ½, March +$.01, December Chicago Wheat +$.00 ¼, March -$.01 ¼, December MPLS Wheat +$.02 ¾, December Soybean Meal -$8.30/T.
Overnight, corn and soybeans were 1 to 4 lower with wheat steady to 3 higher. Concerns over trade talks continuing are providing pressure as wheat markets are higher with Australia not only experiencing drought but now multiple nights of freezing temps in Western Australia.
USDA announced a private sale of 241,000 MT or 8.9 MBU of soybeans sold for unknown destinations. Tunisia purchased 75,000 MT or 2.6 MBU of optional origin Durum wheat and Saudi Arabia purchased 630,000 MT 23.1 MBU of optional origin wheat.
Rains totaling 1” to 3”expected this week across the Plains and Midwest. The latest 6-10 day outlook showing above normal moisture for all except the Southwest. Temps remain above normal for all except the West Coast and northern Border States.
December corn into a new contract low last week at $3.48 ¾ with the first line of resistance is at $3.70. November soybeans with a new contract low at $8.21 ¼ with resistance at $8.51. December KC wheat still holding the month and half lower trend with support at $5. December Chicago wheat looks similar with support at $4.95 and resistance up near $5.30.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener / Alex Gasper
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700