Date: July 31, 2023
Cattle futures finished last week with small gains but held losses week over week as lean hogs were triple digits higher on Friday which secured weekly gains. The spot August lean hog contract was the leader higher, gapping higher on Friday, and hitting a new 4-month high. Supporting the rally has been very good weekly export sales, stronger cash prices and overall stronger pork prices. The only negotiated cash fed cattle to report from last week was some very light volume in the WCB at $186 live and $295 dressed which is $2-$3 lower than the week previous. KS and TX feedlots held firm asking $180 to $182 live into Friday afternoon as packers also held firm only bidding $176 to $178. Reports late Friday indicate very light volumes traded at $179 live in the South.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…August Live Cattle -$1.87, October -$2.30, August Feeders -$.32, September -$.30, August Lean Hogs +$2.52, October +$.77. Choice Boxed Beef -$.74 at $302.00 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.78 at $113.47.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/23/2023 – 7/29/2023
Receipts: Current Week 21,599 Last Week 24,238 Last Year 28,413
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Demand moderate to good. Steer calves steady to 4.00 higher. Heifer calves 3.00-4.00 lower. Demand moderate for calves with increased numbers of un-weaned or short weaned calves included. Auction numbers continue to get lighter as summer’s heat has its grip on many areas of the country.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 619,000 head, down 5,000 from the week previous and down 47,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 502.5 million pounds with year to date -4.8% vs. last year and slaughter -3.9%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,392,000 head, up 66,000 compared to the week previous and up 100,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 501.0 million pounds last week with year to date +0.4% vs. last year and slaughter +1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values last Friday lower on moderate to good demand with 101 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.86 @ 302.00, Select Cutout -2.22 @ 277.54
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 242.87, Lean Hog Index @ 105.81
Pork Carcass Cutout from Friday -1.26 @ 113.47
August live cattle continue to hold a long-term higher trend and hit a new contract high and all-time spot high on July 20th at $182.97. Nearby support holding around $178 with the next at $175.20. August feeders also holding the long-term higher trend with the contract and all-time spot high hit back on July 12th at $251.30 with choppy trade since. Nearby resistance at $250 with support at $242 then $240.40. August lean hogs again up to a new 4-month high last Friday at $103.42 with resistance next right around $105 and support down at $99.90.
Grains started the week with strong buying driven by the escalation in Ukraine. Corn peaked on Monday, wheat on Tuesday and beans by Thursday for the spot August contract at a new contract high but Monday as well for the new crop November contract still unable to retest the contract highs. Over 61 MBU of new crop soybeans sales were announced in USDA’s daily sales last week. Russia backed off on airstrikes midweek on and is now promising African nations free grain shipments to offset the loss of Ukraine exports through the Black Sea. U.S. weather was very hot across the nation this past week but now only a couple days left of hazardous heat this week. There were also some unexpected light rains that fell across parts of the corn belt last week and even some partly cloudy days locally that kept temps from reaching triple digits even though many areas still experienced very warm overnight temps.
The CFTC Commitment of Trader’s report showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 7/25 buying all grains with the largest amount in corn at 73.5k contracts and now net long 26.6K, net long over 120K soybeans, net long 23.1k KC wheat, but still net short over 40K contracts of Chicago Wheat.
Weekly closes in the grains… September Corn -$.06, December -$.06, August Soybeans -$.14 ¼, November -$.19 ¼, September KC Wheat -$.04, December +$.02 ½, September Chicago Wheat +$.06 ¾, December +$.10 ¼, September MPLS Wheat +$.09, December +$.10 ½, August Soybean Meal +$12.4/T, December -$2.7/T.
All grains lower overnight as the U.S. weather forecasts now calling for much cooler temps and a larger area of above normal precipitation for the first half of August. There were several reports of intense missile strikes between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend, a report of a drone attack on Moscow, Zelensky warning that the war is coming to Russia and Putin again threatening nuclear weapons. Corn finished the overnight 14 lower, soybeans 21 to 29 lower and wheat 15 to 21 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ steady and energies mixed, crude up $.60/barrel. USDA announced another 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of new crop soybeans for delivery to China and 183,300 MT of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines.
Hazardous heat still in the forecast for parts of the Southern Plains and Southeast this week but scattered rains also showing for this week from the Mountain West through the Southern Plains and portions of the Corn Belt and down into the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps on the West Coast and the southern third of the U.S. with normal temps for the Corn Belt and below normal across the Plains and below normal moisture in the Southwest but above normal stretching from the PNW down into the Southern Plains and across the majority of eastern half of the U.S.
September corn gapping lower overnight and now back below all major moving averages with support next at $4.95, the July low at $4.74 and resistance at $5.64 ½. December corn looks similar, a penny gap lower to start the overnight, below all major moving averages with support next at $5.02 and resistance at $5.72. August soybeans up to a new contract high last Thursday at $15.80 ¾, but taking out the month-long higher trend in 3 trading days with support next at $14.25. November soybeans up to a new recent high last Monday at $14.35 with the contract high is at $14.48 ¼. Started the overnight with a .04 ½ gap lower open with support next at $13.15 ½. September KC wheat up to a new 8-month high last week at $9.29 ¾ but back down into the long-term trading range with support next at $8.21. September Chicago wheat also a new recent high last week at $7.77 ¼ with the next upside target at $8.18 ¾ and support at $6.77. September MPLS wheat a new 8-month high last week at $9.47 ¾ with resistance at $9.70 and support around $8.70. August meal a new contract high last week at $472.50 with support at $450 then $434.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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