Date: November 13, 2023
Livestock futures were mixed on Friday but severe damage down to both the live cattle and feeder cattle charts last week. New six to seven-month lows were hit throughout the cattle futures last week as funds continue a massive, long liquidation. Choice beef still hovering right around the $300 level, although we did dip below briefly for the first time in over a month. Cash fed cattle trade developed quicker than the previous weeks with futures sharply lower, volume still fairly light. Live trade throughout the country from $178 to $181 live with dressed trade in the North from $283 to $287, all ranging from $4 to $8 lower than the week previous.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…December Live Cattle -$9.70, February -$10.57, November Feeder Cattle -$10.87, January -$13.32, December Lean Hogs +$.15, February +$.10, Choice Boxed Beef -$1.88 at $300.46 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$.34 at $86.94.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/5/2023 – 11/11/2023
Receipts: Current Week 35,646 Last Week: 12,580 Last Year: 40,934
Compared to last week: Feeder steer sold 1.00-5.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded 4.00-10.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves 9.00-15.00 higher as moisture and record warm weather sparked grazing demand for calves. Demand for yearlings moderate to light.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 618,000 head, down 14,000 from the week previous and down 52,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 514.2 million pounds last week with year to date -5.3% from last year and year to date slaughter -4.7%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,576,000 head, down 95,000 compared to the week previous but up 75,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 546.1 million pounds with year to date +0.3% compared to last year and slaughter +1.5%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Thursday higher on Choice but lower on Select on good demand with 138 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.04 @ 300.46, Select Cutout -2.00 @ 267.42
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 235.42, Lean Hog Index @ 76.28
Pork Carcass Cutout +.36 @ 86.94
December live cattle hit a new recent low on Friday at $173.15, the lowest since this past May, with support next at $168 and resistance at $185. November feeders also down to a new recent low on Friday at $227.77 which took out the May low. Support next down at $225 with resistance at $242.75. December lean hogs hit a new recent high last week at $74.27 with the next upside targets at $76.10 then $78.70 and support right around the $70 level.
Grains on Friday were also mixed with soybeans supported by continued Chinese buying from the U.S. Corn futures slipped into new lows and wheat trade was mixed, honestly looking for further direction after the mixed crop reports on Thursday. It was slightly bearish for the fall crops with the increased production and ending stocks. Friday was a government holiday so the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report is delayed until later today. Freight rates in the Black Sea shot higher last week following the Russian missile attack on a civilian cargo and Russian FOB wheat prices were $2 to $3/MT higher on the week. Weather in South America remains better in Argentina but very erratic and concerning still in Brazil.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn -$.13 ¼, March -$.13 ¼, January Soybeans -$.04 ¼, March -$.05 ¾, December Chicago Wheat +$.02 ¾, March unchanged, December KC Wheat -$.03 ½, March -$.04, December MPLS Wheat +$.09 ½, March +$.03, December Soybean Meal +$7.3/T.
Grains were again mixed overnight and soybeans again the leader higher. Hot and dry remain in the forecast for the northern half of Brazil that continues to get the most attention. Beans finished the overnight 5 to 7 higher, corn steady to 1 lower and wheat 2 to 6 lower. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies steady to higher with crude oil up $.50/barrel. USDA reported private sales this morning of 204,000 MT or 7.5 MBU of soybeans sold to China and 143,637 MT or 5.7 MBU of corn sold to Mexico.
Brazil soybean planting still remains behind the average pace now estimated at 61% planted vs. 73% average. Argentine weather has improved recently but both the Rosario Grain Exchange and USDA cut Argentina wheat production this month. Australia production estimates were left unchanged by USDA last week, but October rainfall was the lowest since 2002 and I would expect their production estimates will continue to fall.
Dry weather again this week across most of the country, heavy rains still in the forecast for the Gulf states and scattered rains for the eastern half of the U.S. to begin over the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from the Rockies to the East Coast and above normal precipitation across the entire country.
December corn down to another new low overnight at $4.61 with support next at $4.55 ¾ from the continuous weekly chart and nearby resistance at $4.81. January soybeans have nearby support at $13.26 then at $12.98 with a new recent high last week at $13.84 ½ and the next upside target at $14.20. December Chicago wheat still holding a higher trend with support at $5.54 ½ and resistance at $6.04 ½. December KC wheat hitting a new recent low on October 31st at $6.25 ½ with resistance at $6.88. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on October 31st at $7.03 ¼ with resistance at $7.46. December soybean meal up to a new contract high last week at $464.20 with nearby support down at $422.
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