Date: May 10th, 2023
All livestock futures finished triple digits higher on Tuesday. Corn under heavy pressure helped spark the rally in feeders. Only light volume negotiated cash fed cattle in the WCB to report so far this week at $177 live and $277 dressed, steady to $3 lower than last week. New contract lows for June lean hogs but then a key reversal higher for the day. There has been more interest in cash hogs recently, which is supportive, along with stellar pork export sales the past few weeks.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/8/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,319 Last Week: 6,770 Last Year: 6,532
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady. Feeder heifers steady 2.00 higher, with some instances 800-900 weights 5.00-6.00 lower. Steer calves lightly tested and few sales steady to 3.00 higher. Heifer calves 6.00-8.00 higher. Demand moderate over all. Much needed moisture fell late last week and more is in the forecast late in the week for much of the state. 7 weight index steers averaged $202 and 8 weights averaged $188 to $195.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/8/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,783 Last Week: 2,167 Last Year: 2,372
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher, except 750 lbs – 850 lbs 1.00 to 5.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Demand for this nice offering of feeder cattle was moderate. Back to grass special offered a variety of eye appealing steers and heifers with light to moderate flesh. 7 weight index steers averaged $215 to $222 and 8 weights averaged $198 to $204.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/8/2023 – Final
This Week: 10,252 Last Week: 8,634 Last Year: 4,053
Compared to last week feeder steers under 600 lbs. sold steady to 3.00 lower. Heavier weights sold 4.00-8.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs. sold 2.00-8.00 lower with heavier weights 2.00-4.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $206 to $210 and 8 weights averaged $196.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/9/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,080 Last Week: 3,943 Last Year: 2,117
Compared to last week, yearlings sold steady to firm and calves sold steady to spots 5.00 lower except for steer calves weighing 450-500 lbs that sold in smaller packages than the last few weeks selling 5.00-15.00 lower. Demand was good for another heavy supply of cattle that featured more yearlings this week. Same story again as limited amounts of available forage and a strong cash market for calves and feeders brought large numbers to town.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/9/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,442 Last Week: 2,700 Last Year: 2,781
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 700 lbs. sold unevenly steady while heavier weight feeders sold 3.00-5.00 higher. Demand was good on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 451,000 head, down 19,000 compared to a week ago and down 27,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on moderate demand with 121 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__307.38 -1.18
Select Cutout__284.89 -.23
CME Feeder Cattle Index__199.42 -.59
CME Lean Hog Index__74.64 +.22
Pork Carcass Cutout __82.09 +.15
June live cattle tanked last week to fill the gap from early April. Support is at $161.20 with resistance tested yesterday and settling right at the 20-day moving average at $163.92, the next up at $165.77 and the contract high at $166.27. May feeders collapsed even further last week with support now at $202 and resistance up at $208.50. June lean hogs again hitting a new contract low yesterday at $82.72 but posting a key reversal higher. The next support level is down at $71.50, the contract low for the now expired April contract, with resistance around $87 then $92.
Both corn and soybeans were sharply lower on Tuesday as planting progress has advanced more than expected, expect in the saturated Northern Corn Belt. Weather this week is warm and wet but more beneficial than harmful for the fall crops. It didn’t help to see another 10.7 MBU of corn sold to China canceled. Price breaks in the past have garnered additional export interest, not cancellations, which is not the case this year! Chinese customs data for April showed slower than anticipated demand with soybean imports as well, down 10% from a year ago. KC Wheat continues to be the leader higher as U.S. HRW continues to get worse and the Black Sea shipping deal is still in jeopardy of not getting extended.
All grains under pressure overnight. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 3 lower, soybeans 1 to 3 lower and wheat 2 to 7 lower. Vessel inspections are now back on in the Black Sea with all parties expected to meet this weekend to work out the extension. Outside markets mixed with equites higher, US$ lower and energies steady.
USDA will report the first official new crop balance sheets this Friday. The average trade estimate for corn ending stocks is at 2.094 BBU which would be a 5-year high. This should not be a surprise to the market with March planted acres at 92 million and the trendline yield at 181.5 BPA. The average trade estimate for soybean stocks also expected to be higher than old crop stocks at 293 MBU while wheat stocks are only slightly higher at 602 MBU. Argentine crops are expected to be reduced yet again while Brazil’s record corn and bean crops are expected to be increased another 1 MMT each.
Heavy rains still expected towards the end of the week and into the weekend for the Plains with 1” amounts across the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the Northwest quarter of the country with below normal temps in the Southwest up to the Great Lakes and above normal precipitation across the South with below normal in the Northern Plains through the Corn Belt.
July corn down to a new low for the year last week at $5.69 ¼ with support next at $5.60 and resistance right at $6.00. December hit a new 17-month low overnight at $5.12 ¼ with resistance at $5.37 then $5.50. July soybeans dipped down to $13.92 ¼ last week with the recent low at $13.83 ¾ and resistance from $14.40 to $14.47. The November contract down below $12.50 overnight but still not taking out the recent low at $12.47 ½ from March 24th with resistance at $12.86. July KC wheat down to a new low for the year last week at $7.36 ¼ but now above all major moving averages with resistance at the recent highs from the past few months ranging from $8.86 to $8.94 ¼. July Chicago wheat still holding the long-term lower trend with a new recent low last week at $6.03 ¾ and resistance at $6.85. July MPLS wheat hit a new contract low last week at $7.69 with resistance at $8.56. July soybean meal hit a new 5-month low overnight at $416.10 with resistance at $437.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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