Date: November 27th, 2020
Cattle futures still in a rally mode ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday break while lean hogs were also higher on Wednesday trying to break out of the recent range bound trading pattern. Cash feedlot trade did pick up on Wednesday with steady to higher trade compared to a week ago. Sothern Plains trading took place at $111 live which is $1 higher than last week. Trade in Nebraska was still light at mostly $110 live, steady with a week ago, but dressed trade up to $174 which is $2 higher than a week ago.
Winter Livestock – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/24/2020
Total Receipts: 1,719 Last Week: 1,909 Last Year: 1,063
Compared with last week: Steer and heifer calves and feeders in a light test mostly steady. Slaughter cows mostly steady. Slaughter bulls 1.00 to 2.00 higher. Demand moderate to good.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/24/2020
Total Receipts: 2,245 Last Week: 5,082 Last Year: 1,959
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded mostly steady with some 7 weight steers trading 5.00 higher. Demand was good on a light supply with most weights not well tested.
Bassett Livestock Auction – Bassett, NE
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/25/2020
Total Receipts: 1,870 Last Week: 2,810 Last Year:
A limited number of comparable offerings from last week with 500 to 550 lbs steers trading unevenly steady , 850 lbs steers traded 3.00 lower and no comparable offerings for heifers. Demand was moderate to good with an active internet.
Cattle slaughter from Wednesday estimated at 118,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and from last year. Hog slaughter from Wednesday estimated at 494,000 head, matching last week and up 15,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Wednesday with 116 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__245.06 +.76
Select Cutout__220.90 +1.19
CME Feeder Index__137.30 +.18
CME Lean Hog Index__67.70 -.13
Pork Carcass Cutout__78.35 +.77
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__56.19 -1.33
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__57.39 -.48
Export sales for 11/13 – 11/19…
Beef: Net sales reductions of 15,500 MT reported for 2020, a marketing-year low. China buying 2,000 MT and Japan buying 1,800 MT, but cancellations for South Korea (10,800 MT), Mexico (3,300 MT), Hong Kong (2,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,500 MT). For 2021, net sales reductions of 1,500 MT due to sales for Japan (1,000 MT), Taiwan (800 MT), and Vietnam (300 MT), and offset by reductions for South Korea (3,200 MT).
Exports of 20,200 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,300 MT), Japan (5,100 MT), China (2,900 MT), Mexico (2,300 MT), and Hong Kong (1,700 MT).
Pork: Net sales of 18,800 MT reported for 2020 were down 35 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (9,400 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Japan (3,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (800 MT). For 2021, net sales of 6,600 MT were primarily for South Korea (2,200 MT), Canada (1,900 MT), Colombia (1,000 MT), Australia (600 MT), and China (500 MT).
Exports of 40,900 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (14,400 MT), Mexico (11,800 MT), Japan (5,500 MT), Canada (2,100 MT), and South Korea (2,000 MT).
December live cattle now above all the major moving averages with resistance up at the November high at $112.70 and support from $109.60 to $110.00. January feeders also back above all major moving averages with resistance at $141.50 and support around $135. December lean hogs holding a lower trend since October with support tested last week at $63.50 then down around $62 and resistance up at $67.60.
Grains headed lower, sharply lower for wheat heading into the holiday break. This could have been caused mainly from rolling long positions ahead of first notice day for all December contracts coming on Monday. Especially since today’s trade will be condensed, markets close at noon, and volume will likely be thin after taking Thursday off for Thanksgiving. The ethanol section of the EIA report on Wednesday showed production up 3% from a week ago but inventory up 3.3% to a five-month high. Building inventories and negative margins are not a good sign as COVID spreads shutting down more travel. South American forecasts improved showing rains for both Argentina and Brazil to end this week and into next week.
No overnight trading for the grains, so it will be a hard open here this morning. Equites a higher this morning and the US$ is lower while energies are lower. Commodity markets close at noon today.
Weekly export sales 11/13 – 11/19…
Wheat – 29.2 MBU, exceeding expectations and hitting a new marketing year high, +74% from 4-week average. China purchased 12.2 MBU and Japan 4 MBU. Year to date sales now at 663 MBU compared to 596 MBU at this time last year and 68% of the total USDA estimate.
Corn – 65.6 MBU, also exceeding expectations, +53% from last week but -4% from 4-week average. Mexico buying 21.8 MBU and 20.6 MBU for unknown destinations. Year to date sales now 1.45 BBU compared to only 554 MBU last year and up to 55% of the USDA estimate.
Grain Sorghum – 13.2 MBU, +97% from the 4-week average, China buying 11.8 MBU. Year to date sales at 169 MBU, 65% of the total, and only 35.7 MBU last year at this time.
Soybeans – 28.2 MBU, a new marketing year low, 21.3 MBU sold to China. Year to date at 1.9 BBU, 87% of the total USDA estimate, only 928 MBU last year.
USDA announced a private sale of 302,160 MT or 11.9 MBU of corn sold to Mexico.
Rains of up to an inch in Mato Grosso, Brazil but mostly dry over Argentina yesterday. Heavy rains here in the U.S. still in the forecast for the Southeast and East Coast into mid next week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps north and west and below normal in the Southeast with above normal moisture for the Gulf Coast and East Coast and below normal for the rest of the country.
December corn new contract high earlier this week at $4.29 ¾. Nearby resistance from the continuous weekly chart next at $4.32 then around $4.50 with support at $4.16 ½ then $4.09. January soybeans new contract high right at $12 earlier this week with the spike high from June 2016 at $12.08 ½. Nearby support is at $11.38. December KC wheat chopping sideways the past couple months with support at $5.32 and resistance at $5.70. December Chicago has held a higher trend since late June with support at $5.80 and resistance at $6.38.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700