Date: November 15th, 2021
Livestock futures finished last week mixed, feeders under pressure with grains popping higher.
Weekly export sales were bullish for both beef and pork, although pork sales were lower than a week ago and lower than 4-week average. China was the #1 buyer for beef and #2 for pork. Negotiated cash feedlot trade last week up another $2 to $3 compared to the week previous at $131 to $132 live and $207 dressed.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/7/2021 – 11/13/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 45,070 Previous Week: 29,629 Last Year: 45,715
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-4.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 lower. Demand good for feeder cattle as cash slaughter cattle prices continue to improve. Steer calves 2.00-9.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 2.00 higher. Demand very good for calves.
Ft. Pierre Livestock Auction (Friday) – Ft. Pierre, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/12/2021
This Week: 9,021 Last Week: 8,921 Last Year: 9,758
Compared to last week: Steer calves from 400# to 449# were $10.00 to $12.00 higher, 450# to 499# were steady to $2.00 higher, 500# to 549# were $8.00 to $10 .00 higher, 550# to 599# were $6.00 to $8.00 lower, 600# to 699# were mostly steady; Heifer calves from 400# to 449# were steady with lower undertones, 450# to 649# were generally $4.00 to $8.00 lower.
For the week, Friday November 5th through Friday November 12th, December Live Cattle +$.32, February -$1.02, November Feeder Cattle -$2.62, January -$1.87, December Lean Hogs -$.67, February +$1.07. Boxed Beef, Choice -$5.24 @ $284.30, Select +$2.01 @ $269.53, Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.64 @ $94.71.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 115,000 head and Saturday at 58,000. For the week, 655,000 head, up 5,000 from the week previous but down 2,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 544.5 million pounds compared to 540.7 million the week previous and 552.5 million last year. Year to date beef production is +2.6% compared to last year with slaughter +3.0%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 480,000 head and Saturday at 262,000. For the week, 2,614,000 head, up 11,000 compared to the week previous but down 67,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 560.8 million pounds compared to 556.9 million the week previous and 587.0 million last year. Year to date pork production is -1.9% compared to a year ago with slaughter -2.0%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on Choice but higher on Select on moderate demand with 117 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__284.30 -.84
Select Cutout__269.53 +2.24
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.06 -.41
CME Lean Hog Index__76.68 -1.27
Pork Carcass Cutout__94.71 -1.09
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__58.00 -.26
December live cattle still holding a higher trend with support at $130.50 and resistance at $132.60 then $134. November feeders holding a lower trend with support at $152 and resistance up around $162 and expire later this week. The January contract hit a new recent low to start the month down at $150.77 but rebounded the next day and has since traded from $156.80 to $160.60 with resistance at $163. December lean hogs remain choppy and trading around a $9 range over the past month with support at $71.70 and resistance at $79.50.
Grains shot higher to end last week, first led by a turnaround in the wheat markets. Wheat rallied as a new and higher export tax was announced by Russia. The soy complex then took the reins as meal became the leader along with soybeans. A few tidbits of friendly news with weekly export sales higher than expected at 47.4 MBU, meal sales also higher than expected at 278,000 tons and China rumored to have purchased more soybean cargoes. Beyond that though I would say it was technical support with new recent highs and fresh buying. Weekly corn export sales were also decent at 42 MBU while wheat sales were 10.5 MBU. Both were below the week previous and the prior 4-week average.
For the week, Friday November 5th through Friday November 12th, December Corn +$.24 ¼, March +$.22 ¾, January Soybeans +$.38 ¾, March +$.38 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.54 ¼, March +$.53, December Chicago Wheat +$.50 ½, March +$.48 ¾, December MPLS Wheat +$.40 ½, March +$.51 ¼, December Soybean Meal +$29.40/T, March +$24.10/T
Grains steady to lower overnight with corn finishing 1 to 2 lower, soybeans steady to 2 lower and wheat 1 lower to 2 higher. Energies are lower this morning along with the US$ as equities are pointing higher.
USDA announced a couple daily sales this morning. The first a sale of 264,000 MT or 9.7 MBU of soybeans sold for delivery to unknown destinations. Mexico purchased 198,000 MT or 7.8 MBU of corn with 5.8 MBU for this marketing year and 2.0 MBU for next.
Mild and dry weather expected across the U.S. this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps and below normal moisture for southwest quarter and below normal temps for the Northern Border States to across the Corn Belt with above normal moisture in the Northern Plans and from east TX to the New England. Brazil and Argentina looking at below normal moisture in their southern grain areas.
December corn holding the short term higher trend but bumping the long term lower trend twice so far this month and unable to break through with support around $5.50 and resistance at $5.82 then $5.86. January soybeans still holding the long term lower trend with a new recent low last week at $11.81 ¼ and resistance at $12.50 then $12.66. December KC wheat a new contract high on Friday at $8.43 ½ with support at $7.75. December Chicago wheat also a new contract high at $8.26 ¾ with support at $7.60. December MPLS wheat contract high back on November 2nd at $10.86 ½ with support at $10.05. December Soybean Meal a new recent high overnight at $367 with support at $330 and resistance at $375.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700