Date: December 20th, 2022
Livestock futures opened higher yesterday with grains under pressure but soon fell victim to the overall commodity selloff to begin the week. Live cattle held the best with small gains, lean hogs were mixed and feeders hit with triple digit losses. I am a little surprised that feeders didn’t hold up better.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 12/17/2022
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher in the South Central and Southeast, while the North Central region sold 1.00 to 3.00 lower. Demand was moderate to good. Quality is a bit harder to find currently and mostly just a timing issue as much of this years’ marketing is complete with many producers holding cattle for the post-holiday run now. This past week’s auction receipts are lighter than the past couple weeks and many auctions have now called it a year on the marketing side of things. Blizzard conditions in the North Plains this past week made auctions cancel sales or rescheduled to Saturday and into the coming week. The demand for grass type cattle have waned somewhat in the North and bigger short yearling weight calves were being more sought after. Even though more than 75 percent of the country has drought designation status, recent moisture in many areas have led many to feeding in the mud currently. Cold weather setting in and is going to firm up the ground. This coming week a low-pressure system is expected to set in the middle of the country and ranchers concerned over dangerously cold temperatures. What few producers that aren’t already feeding full diets will be by Christmas. The next question will be if enough forage is available to keep cow bellies full for the rest of the winter.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/19/2022 – Prelim
This Week: 7,800 Last Week: 10,590 Last Year:
Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 800 lbs. steady to 4.00 higher; few over 800 lbs. mostly steady. Feeder heifers steady in a light test. Steer calves 4.00-8.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 4.00 higher. Demand good for all classes as the 2022 sale season comes to a close. Single digit temperatures and subzero wind-chills are expected towards the end of the week. 7 weight index steers averaged $178-$180.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/19/2022 – Final
This Week: 9,019 Last Week: 7,306 Last Year: 5,146
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 5.00-8.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded 2.00-5.00 lower. Supply was heavy with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $171-$178 and 8 weight index steers averaged $176.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/19/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,979 Last Week: 3,571 Last Year: 2,647
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 higher except 550 lbs – 600 lbs steady to 1.00 lower. 4 loads of the same source yearling steers weighing 1000 lbs plus were 2.00 lower this week. Feeder heifers steady to 5.00 lower, except 400 lbs to 500 lbs 1.00 to 4.00 higher. Demand for this nice offering of feeders was moderate. 7 weight index steers averaged $184-$187 and 8 weight index steers averaged $176-$181.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 100,000 head, down 25,000 from last week and down 21,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 486,000 head, down 4,000 compared to a week ago but up 4,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday higher on moderate to weak demand with 74 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__263.83 +1.00
Select Cutout__238.57 +3.12
CME Feeder Cattle Index__178.74 -.77
CME Lean Hog Index__80.84 -.71
Pork Carcass Cutout __84.93 -2.51
December live cattle still holding the long-term higher trend with a new contract high on Monday at $155.40, support down at $153.45. January feeders also trending higher with resistance around $185. The reversal lower yesterday though broke through nearby support with the next down around $180. February lean hogs down to a new recent low last week at $81.52 before then reversed higher with resistance at $87.30 then at $92.
KC wheat did hold steady with all other grains lower. The nasty winter storm in the forecast for later this week with dangerous wind chills predicted into Friday. There isn’t a lot of cover or moisture in areas from SW KS down into the TX Panhandle. Light rains over the weekend and a little better extended forecast for Argentina put the most pressure on soybeans yesterday. We saw this last week as well and then Tuesday’s models came along which reversed markets higher.
Weekly export inspections were near expectations. Soybeans inspected for export totaled 59.5 MBU, with year to date now at 920 MBU vs. 1.008 BBU a year ago. China remains the #1 destination at 40.8 MBU followed by Mexico, Italy, Thailand and Japan. Corn inspected for export totaled 29.3 MBU with year to date at 311 MBU vs. 447 MBU last year. The #1 destination also China at 16.4 MBU followed by Mexico, Japan and Colombia. Wheat inspections totaled 11.2 MBU, still below the average needed per week at 14.3 MBU. Year to date though remains on pace at 420 MBU and just shy of last year’s 428 MBU. South Korea was the #1 destination at 3.1 MBU followed by Japan, Mexico and Ethiopia.
Estimates for managed money/funds yesterday, net sellers of 10,000 soybean contracts, and 10,000 soymeal contracts, but net buyers of 4,000 soyoil and net sellers of 3,000 contracts of corn and Chicago wheat futures.
Grains mostly steady to higher overnight but still fairly quiet trade and not much new news. Equites and US$ lower this morning with energies and metals higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 lower to 1 higher, soybeans 3 to 8 higher and wheat 1 lower to 6 higher. No daily sales announced by USDA this morning. Taiwan tendering for a cargo of U.S. milling quality wheat while Iraq is looking for a cargo from Australia, Canada or the U.S.
This is the last full week of trading this year as the markets will be closed next Sunday night and Monday for Christmas. The biggest story for now is the U.S. weather later this week which will bring much below normal temps and high winds sweeping across the Midwest with dangerous wind chills. The 6-10 day outlook calling for below normal temps for the eastern half of the U.S. and above normal for the western half with below normal precip in the South and East and above normal precip in the PNW and Northern Border States.
March corn holding a month and a half long lower trend with support at $6.35 and resistance at $6.60. January soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with support at $14.60 then $14.25 and resistance at $14.92 and $15.12. March KC wheat holding a lower trend with the recent low at $8.21 ¾ and resistance at $8.80. March Chicago wheat recent low at $7.23 ½ and resistance at $7.70. March MPLS wheat has support at $8.90 and resistance at $9.32. January Soybean Meal a new contract high on December 9th at $474.4 pulling back since to find support at yesterday’s low at $446.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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