Date: August 7, 2023
Cattle futures shot triple digits higher on Friday which locked in weekly gains. Cash fed cattle trade finally picked up volume on Friday. Early in the week, only NE trade was being reported on very light volume. NE trade for the week was steady at $295 to $296 dressed while steady to $2 higher at $186 to $190 live. KS & TX trade reported at $180 up to $185.50 live, steady to $5 higher. Futures for both fats and feeders held at nearby resistance levels but now look to retest the contract and all-time spot highs from July.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…August Live Cattle +$2.75, October +$3.30, August Feeders +$3.92, September +$4.47, August Lean Hogs -$2.17, October -$1.95. Choice Boxed Beef -$.21 at $301.79 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$.22 at $113.69.
Friday’s salebarn recap highlighted in Mitchell, SD with feeders $4 to $8 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $251 and 8 weights averaged $242 to $247. Valentine, NE feeder cattle were sharply higher with 8 weight index steers averaging $275.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/30/2023 – 8/5/2023
Receipts: Current Week 17,595 Last Week 21,599 Last Year 31,326
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good with more cattle headed to feed this week and less to grass. Steer calves steady but 4 weights up to 10.00 higher. Heifer calves sold 2.00-8.00 higher. Numbers of un-weaned calves continue to come to market and these cattle selling relatively well despite temps above 100. Numbers lighter at most sale barns across the state this week as hot weather making it difficult to move cattle.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 613,000 head, down 6,000 from the week previous and down 35,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 498.5 million pounds with year to date -4.8% vs. last year and slaughter -3.9%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,338,000 head, down 54,000 compared to the week previous but up 3,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 489.1 million pounds last week with year to date +0.4% vs. last year and slaughter +1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on moderate to good demand with 121 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.22 @ 301.79, Select Cutout -1.83 @ 276.48
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 245.84, Lean Hog Index @ 105.47
Pork Carcass Cutout from Friday -1.94 @ 113.69
August live cattle continue to hold a long-term higher trend with the contract high and all-time spot high on July 20th at $182.97. Nearby support at $176.80 and resistance at $181.22. August feeders also holding the long-term higher trend with the contract and all-time spot high hit back on July 12th at $251.30. Nearby support around $246 then $242 with resistance at $250. August lean hogs have rallied over $31 in the past couple months, testing resistance up around $105 last week with support at $99.95.
Grains were mixed on Friday but sharply lower most of the week which led to major losses for all. Wheat was the leader lower as some calming in Ukraine. Honestly though, it just seems wheat futures are exhausted as the news remains the same. U.S. wheat exports are poor and still at a premium compared to world prices. Fall crops have pulled back as weather is vastly improved. Multiple rains and more in the forecast with below normal temps for August. USDA will update supply and demand this coming Friday. Private estimates are still coming in, but most are looking for 175+ BPA for corn and 50+ BPA for soybeans.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending August 1st still show funds surprisingly holding a net long position in corn of 16,750 contracts. As of today though, they certainly could be near even. Funds were net long 94,500 soybean contracts and net short 50,400 Chicago wheat contracts as of August 1st.
Weekly closes in the grains… September Corn -$.36 ½, December -$.33, August Soybeans -$.42 ¾, November -$.49 ¼, September KC Wheat -$1.03 ¾, December -$1.00, September Chicago Wheat -$.71 ¼, December -$.67 ¾, September MPLS Wheat -$.73 ¾, December -$.69 ¼, August Soybean Meal -$11.1/T, December -$8.1/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans the leader lower on improved U.S. weather forecasts while wheat finished higher as the war in Ukraine has now moved into Russian ports. Soybeans finished the overnight 24 to 39 lower, corn 1 to 2 lower and wheat 2 to 12 higher. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ steady energies lower with crude down $.50/barrel. USDA announced 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of new crop soybeans sold to China and 251,460 MT or 9.9 MBU of new crop corn sold to Mexico.
Hazardous heat still lingering this week in the South but below normal temps and 1-2” rains expected across most of the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing the same with above normal temps on the West Coast and the southern third of the U.S. with normal to below normal temps for the Corn Belt and Northern Plains with below normal moisture out West and above normal moisture from the Rockies to the East Coast.
September corn holding support at $4.80 with resistance at $5.12. December corn as support at $4.92, the July low down at $4.81 and resistance around $5.20. September soybeans breaking nearby support overnight with the next at $13.36 and resistance at $14.00. November soybeans also breaking nearby support with the next around $12.60 and resistance at $13.54. September KC wheat falling $1.77 in the past two weeks with support next the May low at $7.33. September Chicago wheat still holding support at $6.22 with resistance at $6.84. September MPLS wheat as support at $8.07 with resistance at $8.73.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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