Date: October 7th, 2019
Livestock futures were mixed to end the week but mostly lower for the week except for nearby live cattle. Cash feedlot trade was higher again last week. Trade in the South at $106 to $107 live, $3 to $4 higher than the week previous and trade in the North at $165 to $170 dressed, steady to $5 higher. Beef exports continue to hold below a year ago which is concerning to a market needing to expand demand while pork exports exceed both a year ago and the 5-year average. Sales these past 2 weeks have topped 30,000 MT, China is starting to buy for 2020 already and accumulated year to date shipments to China have now surpassed 200,000 MT compared to only 35,000 MT a year ago.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 10/04/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 192,700 60,600 4,300 257,600
Last Week 208,000 73,900 24,800 306,700
Year Ago 249,600 47,600 39,200 336,400
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold uneven; 1.00 lower to 3.00 higher. Higher discounts than the normal trends noted on fleshy, unweaned calves at this time in the early fall. Demand was best for yearlings coming off grass in the Dakotas and Nebraska.
For the week, Friday September 27th through Friday October 4th, October Live Cattle +$2.32, December +$.20, October Feeder Cattle -$2.35, November -$1.60, October Lean Hogs -$2.87, December -$2.60. Boxed Beef, Choice -$.62 @ $211.96, Select -$2.94 @ $186.92. Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.10 @ $75.36.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 108,000 head, down 8,000 from the week previous and down 1,000 from last year. For the week, 639,000 head, down 9,000 from the week previous and down 1,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 523.3 million pounds compared to 528.8 million the week previous and 530.6 million last year. Beef production only up .1% compared to a year ago with cattle slaughter up 1.1%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 487,000 head, down 3,000 compared to the week previous but up 26,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,669,000 head, up 23,000 compared to the week previous and up 169,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 561.4 million pounds last week compared to 554.3 the week previous and 524.1 million last year. Pork production is up 4.1% compared to a year ago with slaughter up 3.5%.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to weak on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 100 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__211.96 -.10, -.62 for the week
Select Cutout__186.92 -.29, -2.94 for the week
CME Feeder Index__143.60 +.68
CME Lean Hog Index__59.23 +.51
Pork Carcass Cutout__75.36 +1.24, +2.10 for the week
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__50.86 -.39
National Wtd Avg Live Price__37.59 -.51, Wtd Avg Carcass Base 49.99 -.16
October live cattle into a new recent high on Friday at $107.80 and finally filling the gap left from the limit down moves after the Tyson plant fire back in August. Support is down around $104.25 with resistance up around $110. October feeders still holding a higher trend this month with support at $140.50 and resistance up at $144.72. October lean hogs expire on the 14th and remain choppy from the recent low down at $59.30 up to the nearby resistance at $65.82. The December contract holding a lower trend since mid-April with support down around $65 and resistance up at $72.70.
Grains finished mixed on Friday with corn and soybeans higher for the week and wheat mixed. EPA will propose and request public comment on expanding biofuel requirements beginning in 2020. EPA will seek comment on actions to ensure that more than 15 billion gallons of conventional ethanol be blended into the nation’s fuel supply beginning in 2020. The USDA October crop report will be released later this week with early private yield and production estimates still on both sides of the September estimate by USDA. Ending stocks look to be lower either way due to lower than expected quarterly ending stocks or old crop stocks which carry through to the new crop balance sheet as beginning stocks. Rain moved through last week delaying fall harvest activity and temps have dropped delaying maturity. Below normal temps are in the forecast again for this week and next. The crop maturity and harvest will continue to be watched closely these next few weeks.
For the week, Friday September 27th through Friday October 4th, December Corn +$.13 ¼, March +$.13 ¼, November Soybeans +$.33 ¼, January +$.32 ¾, December KC Wheat -$.03 ½, March -$.02 ¼, December Chicago Wheat +$.03 ¼, March +$.03 ¾, December MPLS Wheat -$.11, March -$.10 ¾, December Soybean Meal +$8.60/T.
Overnight, grains were mixed, trading both sides of unchanged but not straying too far from unchanged. Corn finished 1 higher, soybeans steady to 1 higher, KC wheat fractionally lower, Chicago wheat steady and MPLS wheat 1 higher.
USDA reported a private sale of 198,000 MT or 7.3 MBU of soybeans sold to China and a private sale of 240,000 MT or 8.8 MBU of soybeans sold for unknown destinations.
Weather this week again will be watched closely with much below normal temps dipping into the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt towards the end of this week. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook holding that same forecast with below normal temps over most of the country, above normal on the East Coast, with below normal precip over the Rockies and in the Southeast, above normal from the Great Lakes through the Corn Belt and down to the Gulf of Mexico.
December corn topped out at $3.92 ¾ last week, closing the gap but unable to push any higher with support at $3.80 then down around $3.72. November soybeans with support at $9.08 then $8.80 and resistance up at $9.21 then $9.36 ½. December KC wheat with support at $4.00 and resistance up at $4.20. December Chicago wheat with support at $4.85 and resistance right around the $5 mark. December MPLS wheat with support at $5.21 and resistance up at $5.40. December soybean meal breaking into a new recent high and hitting resistance just above $309 with support at $300.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700