Date: October 5th, 2022
Livestock futures under pressure again on Tuesday even though equites were sharply higher and US$ sharply lower. Beef prices higher so far this week is supportive and here’s hoping we have seen the seasonal low. It’s hard to lock that in just yet though as economic woes still linger over these markets. Live cattle held up the best yesterday as feeders stayed around $1 lower and lean hogs triple digits lower. Pork prices continue lower along with a new recent low yesterday in the nearby October contract. Light volume cash fed cattle trade in the North at $148 live and $230 dressed so far this week with asking prices now hovering around $145 live in the South and up to $150 live in the North.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/3/2022 – Final
This Week: 8,346 Last Week: 6,794 Last Year: 6,210
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00 to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers mostly steady. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Quality average to attractive. Steer and heifer calves, most classes unevenly steady. Demand moderate for calves. Many cattle continue to head to market some 4-5 months early due to drought conditions. Extreme drought continues to plague most of the region as cooler temperatures are expected this week with a slight chance of moisture. 7 weight index steers averaged $170 and 8 weight index steers averaged $162-$170.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/3/2022 – Final
This Week: 4,929 Last Week: 5,372 Last Year: 4,692
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00-8.00 lower. Heifers 5.00-7.00 lower. Value Added cattle also had a lower undertone noted. Quality mostly plain thru attractive. Demand good. Slaughter cows 6.00-9.00 lower. Slaughter Bulls 3.00 lower.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/3/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,845 Last Week: 1,699 Last Year: 1,416
Compared to last week: Limited price comparisons as few steers and heifer with similar weights to last sale. Feeder steers 600 lbs – 650 lbs steady to 2.00 lower, 700 lbs – 750 lbs, 900 lbs – 950 lbs steady to 1.00 higher, other weights not well compared. Feeder heifers 700 lbs – 800 lbs steady to 3.00 lower, other weights not well compared. Nice string of yearlings, many long strings of light to moderate fleshed steers and heifers including loads and multiple load lots offered. Good demand today with many farmers in the field, harvesting with the weather being beautiful. More interest in the yearlings than the spring calves today. 7 weight index steers averaged $180-$188 and 8 weights averaged $175.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/3/2022 – Final
This Week: 5,314 Last Week: 5,858 Last Year: 3,662
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded 2.00-6.00 higher. Supply and demand was moderate. 7 weight index steers averaged $177-$180 and 8 weight index steers averaged $172-$174.
OKC West Livestock Auction – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/4/2022 – Preliminary
This Week: 2,500 Last Week: 6,610 Last Year: 5,878
Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves sold 6.00-9.00 lower, with exception of long weaned steer calves steady to weak on very limited offerings. Demand light, few trades moderate.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/4/2022 – Final
This Week: 1,772 Last Week: 2,448 Last Year: 1,770
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calve’s 5.00 to 8.00 instances 10.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers and heifers in a light test mostly steady. Slaughter cow’s 3.00 to 5.00 lower. Slaughter bull’s 6.00 to 8.00 lower. Trade and demand moderate.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/4/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,317 Last Week: 2,909 Last Year: 2,130
Compared to last week, the majority of the steers under 650 lbs were un-weaned calves and sold steady to 5.00 lower while the heifer calves and yearlings offered traded steady. Demand was moderate for calves and good for the yearlings. Supply was moderate. Much like other parts of the state, a lack of moisture over the last 60 days has pasture conditions in a stressed state and there has been little fall growth. Slaughter cows sold with a lower undertone, bulls steady.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/4/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,560 Last Week: 2,348 Last Year: 2,272
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 4.00 lower. Yearling steers traded 5.00 lower. Demand was good, especially on long-time weaned and vaccinated calves. The supply was moderate and included a 230 hd draft of 918 lbs. steers which brought 5.50 less than a comparable draft last week. As we begin “National Sick Calf Month”, short-weaned or unweaned calves without shots were sharply discounted. There was an above average number of bawling calves and bull calves in the offering.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, again matching last week and up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 487,000 head, up 4,000 compared to the week previous and up 8,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s hog slaughter though revised down to 465,000 head.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Tuesday on moderate demand with 99 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__248.04 +2.10
Select Cutout__221.91 +.60
CME Feeder Cattle Index__175.67 +.23
CME Lean Hog Index__93.44 -.89
Pork Carcass Cutout __98.29 -1.64
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__92.77 +10.17, 20,744 head
October live cattle hit a new recent high back on September 20th at $146.77 with the long term higher trend still intact. Support at last week’s low of $142.72 which would also test the higher trend line and nearby resistance at $145. October feeders holding a lower trend since the contract high at $190.20 in mid-August, support holding so far this week at $174, the contract low at $168.87 and resistance at $180. October lean hogs also holding a lower trend with a new 9-month low yesterday, support next at $85 and resistance at $91.30.
The lower US$ supportive for grains yesterday along with chatter picking up surrounding Argentina current dry conditions. September was the driest in the past 16 years and forecasts do not currently show very good relief as early planting begins. Odd to see soybeans the leader and wheat the loser though after USDA’s latest updates on production and stocks, but honestly wheat gave in as the day progressed and KC wheat still the leader trading above the $10 mark for the third consecutive day. Overall the grains were fairly quietly trading both sides of unchanged, fall harvest progressing swiftly and China on holiday all week. Ukraine Ag Ministry reported 1.1 million hectares or wheat planted so far or 27% of the expected area and a bit behind the pace expected. Last year at this time, 3.1 million hectares were planted and most still shooting for somewhere around 1/3 less planted than a year ago. Russia continued with its “official” annexation of the 4 Ukraine regions. This will equate to about 5 MMT of additional grain production for Russia as well.
Reversals overnight with grains lower along with equites and energies and US$ higher. Corn finished the overnight 3 lower, soybeans 9 to 10 lower and wheat 6 to 8 lower.
USDA’s next crop report is a week away with most thinking U.S. soybean yields maybe a touch better than month ago, up a fraction to ½ BPA, close to 51 BPA. Corn yields though still carrying a wide range from sub 170 to 173+ BPA. This taken with the beginning stocks to be reduced by 148 MBU leads to an ending stocks range of only 850 MBU to 1.25 BBU. If production is decreased, exports will be the first cut as sales are around half that of year ago at this time and through the week ending September 22nd, year to date sales only represent 22.5% of the total export sales estimate. This along with the low water problems of the lower Mississippi River bogging down barge movement would certainly be enough justification for USDA to cut export sales projections.
Rains over this next week still isolated to the Southwest with only light chances from KS up into the Great Lakes in the forecast for early next week. The 6-10 day outlook now showing normal temps across most of the U.S. with above normal still on the West Coast and a portion of the Gulf States up into parts of the Corn Belt with above normal moisture in the Southwest and below normal for the PNW and Northern Plains.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with resistance at the $7 level and support at $6.61. November soybeans continue to chop sideways the past couple months with support around $13.60 and resistance at $14.25. December KC Wheat another new recent high yesterday at $10.11 with resistance at $10.19 and support at $9.27. December Chicago wheat a new recent high last week at $9.45 ¾ with resistance at $9.54 and support at $8.79. December MPLS wheat has resistance right around the $10 level and support at $9.48. October soybean meal new contract high back on September 22nd at $463.70 back down to test support around the $400 level this week.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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