Date: January 12th, 2023
Livestock futures steady to lower yesterday with yet again new lows for lean hogs. Nearby February lean hogs have lost nearly $13 since December 27th. Cash fed cattle trade still only light volume so far this week in the North at $158 live and $252 dressed, $1 to $2 higher than last week’s early trading. Smaller show lists and lower weights should be supportive this week. Packers should also be running near max capacity with higher beef prices and hoping to hold cash steady this week, even though Choice did take a dip lower yesterday. Asking prices in the South still $158 to $160 live and $160+ in the North.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/9/2023 – Final
This Week: 17,784 Last Week: 7,743 Last Year: 16,260
Compared to the last sale on 12/19/22: Feeder steers steady to 4.00 higher, most advance on heavier weights. Feeder heifers 1.00-3.00 higher. Steer calves mostly steady but thin fleshed calves continue to sell at a big premium. Heifer calves 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand very good for calves. Several calves in supply are in thin condition. 7 weight index steers averaged $178-$179 and 8 weights averaged $180.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/9/2023 – Final
This Week: 11,796 Last Week: 10,017 Last Year: 11,331
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 2.00-6.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 3.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $182-$184 and 8 weight index steers averaged $177-$181.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/10/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,990 Last Week: 5,155 Last Year: 4,530
Compared to last week, steers and heifer calves and yearling steers traded steady to 4.00 higher. Demand was very good on a heavy supply.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/9/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,767 Last Week: 3,584 Last Year: 4,965
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 450 – 600 lbs steady to 4.00 higher with instances of 17.00 higher, 600 lbs – 900 lbs steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers mixed from 5.00 lower to 3.00 higher. Demand for this large offering of eye appealing feeder cattle was good to very good. Flesh conditions were grass fed to heavily backgrounded. 7 weight index steers averaged $187-$188 and 8 weight index steers averaged $174-$179.
Philip Livestock Auction – Philip, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/10/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,179 Last Week: 4,764 Last Year: 2,123
First sale in several weeks, no recent price comparisons available. Very good demand for this nice offering of long strings and full loads of high quality feeder steers and heifers. Flesh condition is very attractive as the extreme cold weather during the week of Christmas really greened the calves up. The heavy snows received recently should help to fill stock dams when the runoff occurs and get the grass started in the spring as well, this fact has helped to support the market for those light cattle that will run on next summer’s grass as yearlings. 8 weight index steers averaged $173.50.
Cattle slaughter on Wednesday estimated at 127,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 13,000 from last year with the week to date now at 383,000 head, up 42,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Wednesday estimated at 490,000 head, up 15,000 compared to last week and up 59,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Wednesday lower on moderate demand with 116 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__280.73 -3.80
Select Cutout__258.10 -.23
CME Feeder Cattle Index__182.32 -1.34
CME Lean Hog Index__75.96 -.45
Pork Carcass Cutout __80.68 -1.05
Weekly Export Sales for the week ending January 5th…
Beef: Net sales for 2023 marketing year, which began January 1st, totaled 13,300 MT. The top three buyers were Japan, China and South Korea. Exports for the period ending December 31st of 4,300 MT brought accumulated exports to 942,000 MT, up 2% from last year. Exports from January 1st through the 5th totaled 9,200 MT.
Pork: Net sales for 2023 marketing year at 13,100 MT with the top three buyers Mexico, Japan and South Korea. Exports for the period ending December 31st of 9,700 MT brought accumulated exports to 1,502,900 MT, down 16% from last year. Exports for the first 5 days of January totaled 16,000 MT. Mexico was the #1 destination taking over half of the combined total.
February live cattle holding the long-term higher trend with the contract high at $159.17 from December 29th, resistance next up around $163 and support at $156.50. January feeders trending higher over the past couple months with a new recent high last week at $185.65, resistance next up around $188 and support down at $180.30. January feeders expire on the 26th and will of course be closely tied to the cash index. I would think the $180 to $185 range will hold over the next couple weeks. February lean hogs a new recent low yesterday at $78.82 with support next the one-year low down at $76.40.
Grains yesterday were fairly quiet with both corn and soybeans trading within the previous day’s range and wheat gaining back most of the loss from Tuesday.
Overnight, soybeans again the leader higher finishing 4 to 11 higher, corn steady to 2 higher and wheat mixed from 1 lower to 3 higher. Outside markets supportive with energies higher, US$ lower, equites though lower this morning. CPI in line with expectations, 0.1% lower from November but still 6.5% higher than last year.
Weekly Export Sales for the week ending January 5th, another poor week…
Wheat: Net sales of 90,800 MT or 3.3 MBU, up 93% from the previous week, but down 73% percent from the prior 4-week average. China buying 1 cargo but that was switched form unknown destinations. Total net sales of 1,500 MT or 55k BU for 2023/2024 were for Panama.
Corn: Net sales of 255,700 MT or 10.1 MBU for 2022/2023 were down 20% from the previous week and 62% from the prior 4-week average. Mexico and China the top buyers, but again most of the Chinese volume switched from unknown destinations and not new sales. Total net sales of 22,400 MT or 882k BU for 2023/2024 were for Mexico.
Soybeans: Net sales of 717,400 MT or 26.4 MBU for 2022/2023 were down 1% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average. China the #1 buyer at nearly 25 MBU, half of that switched from unknown destinations. 1 cargo of new crop sold to Pakistan.
The Average pre report trade estimates for the USDA grain reports to be released this Thursday at 11 am CST are as follows…
US final 2022 Corn production at 13.93 BBU, unchanged from last month, with a slightly higher yield at 172.5 BPA and slightly lower harvested acres at 80.76 mln acres
US final 2022 Soybean production at 4.362 BBU, 16 MBU higher than last month on a slightly higher yield at 50.3 BPA and slightly higher harvested acres at 86.62 mln acres
22/23 US Corn Ending Stocks at 1.31 BBU vs. 1.257 BBU last month
22/23 US Soybean Ending Stocks at 235 MBU vs. 220 MBU last month
22/23 US Wheat Ending Stocks at 580 MBU vs. 571 MBU last month
22/23 Argentina Corn production at 51.9 MMT down from 55 MMT last month
22/23 Argentina Soybean production at 46.7 MMT down from 49.5 MMT last month
• Rosario Grain Exchange, massive cuts to both with corn down to 45 MMT and soybeans down to 37 MMT
22/23 Brazil Corn production at 126.3 MMT up from 126 MMT last month
22/23 Brazil Soybean production at 152.3 MMT up from 152 MMT last month
• Brazil’s CONAB updated production estimates this morning, down slightly from a month ago…total corn at 125.062 MMT and soybeans 152.712 MMT
World 22/23 Corn ending stocks at 297.9 MMT vs. 298.4 MMT last month
World 22/23 Soybean ending stocks at 101.7 MMT vs. 102.7 MMT last month
World 22/23 Wheat ending stocks at 268.0 MMT vs. 267.3 MMT last month
US Quarterly Stocks, December 1st US Corn stocks at 11.15 BBU vs. Sept 1, 2022 stocks at 1.377 BBU and Dec 1, 2021 stocks at 11.642 BBU
US Quarterly Stocks, December 1st US Soybean stocks at 3.13 BBU vs. Sept 1, 2022 stocks at 274 MBU and Dec 1, 2021 stocks at 3.15 BBU
US Quarterly Stocks, December 1st US Wheat stocks at 1.34 BBU vs. Sept 1, 2022 stocks at 1.776 BBU and Dec 1, 2021 stocks at 1.378 BBU
2023 US total Winter Wheat Planted Acres at 34.48 mln acres vs. 33.27 mln in 2022
2023 US HRW Planted Acres at 23.82 mln acres vs 23.08 last year
2023 US SRW Planted Acres at 6.89 mln acres vs. 6.57 mln last year
2023 US White Winter Wheat Planted Acres at 3.63 mln acres vs. 3.618 mln last year
Heavy rains in the forecast still for the West Coast and now 1-2 inch scattered rains for the eastern half of the U.S. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the eastern half of the country with below normal temps in the Southwest and above normal precipitation still across the entire country.
March corn has support at $6.48 with resistance at $6.85 and stuck in a $.75 trading range since late August. March soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with a new recent high on December 30th at $15.37 ½, resistance next at $15.45 and support at last week’s low down at $14.65. March KC wheat still holding the lower trend with a new recent low on Tuesday at $8.03 ¼ and resistance at $8.50. March Chicago wheat a new recent low at $7.20 ½ with resistance at $8.00. March MPLS wheat has support at $8.90 with resistance at $9.40. March Soybean Meal a new contract high at $480 overnight with support around $460.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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