Date: September 26th, 2022
Almost all markets lower to end last week, feeders were the only mixed with deferred contracts holding small gains. Equites, energies and grains all sharply lower as the US$ shot higher on overall world economic and geopolitical concerns. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week was $1 to $4 higher than the week previous with trade in the South at $143 live and trade in the North from $144 to $148 live and $228 up to $234 dressed. After the close, yet another month of larger than expected placements and a bearish cattle on feed report. Cattle and calves on feed as of September 1st totaled 11.3 million head, slightly above a year ago. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.11 million head, also slightly above 2021 while the market was expected 2% less. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 2.00 million head, 6 percent above 2021.
For the week, Friday September 16th through Friday September 23rd, October Live Cattle -$1.25, December -$2.42, September Feeder Cattle -$1.07, October -$2.90, October Lean Hogs -$4.27, December -$5.17. Boxed Beef, Choice -$3.77 @ $248.63, Select -$7.34 @ $219.31, Pork Carcass Cutout -$5.46 @ $100.93.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/18/22-9/24/22
Current Week: 31,385 Last Report 9/12/22: 40,457 Last Year: 27,955
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 1.00 lower, except over 800 lbs 2.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady. Demand moderate to good. Steer calves steady to 3.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 4.00 lower. Demand moderate for calves.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 667,000 head, matching the week previous and up 24,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 548.9 million pounds last week with year to date +1.3% vs. last year and slaughter +1.5%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,538,000 head, up 73,000 compared to the week previous but down 45,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 534.5 million pounds last week with year to date -2.6% compared to a year ago and slaughter -3.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday steady to higher for Choice but lower for Select on moderate demand with 100 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__248.63 +.23
Select Cutout__219.31 -2.80
CME Feeder Cattle Index__180.15 +.40
CME Lean Hog Index__97.59 -.42
Pork Carcass Cutout __100.93 -2.95
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__86.34 -7.69, 3,395 head
October live cattle hit a new recent high last week at $146.77 but quickly lost over $2 and tested support by the end of the week down at $144. September feeders trending lower over a month now. Support was tested and held on Friday at $177.57 with the next down around $173 and resistance up at $181 but the contract will expire this Thursday. October feeders also holding a lower trend and breaking support last week with the next down at $176 and resistance at $183. October lean hogs a new recent high last week at $97.45, but like live cattle, pulled sharply lower the rest of the week with support at $91.
Grains, again sharply lower to end the week which took out weekly gains for corn, pushed soybeans lower week over week but wheat still able to secure weekly gains. The US$ trading up to levels not seen since 2002. U.S. weather wide open for fall harvest to progress swiftly this week. There’s a lot of rumors on social media pertaining to China as less flights were coming out of Beijing, corruption led to a few ministers and officials arrested and even comments that the Chinese President was under house arrest and a possible military coup was ensuing. Nothing had been confirmed through the weekend, but all the chatter along with the increased tensions in Ukraine, was enough to rattle the markets.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money for the trade week ending 9/20 as buyers of corn and wheat and sellers of soybeans. They added 7.2k corn contracts (net long 247.9k), +4.6k Chicago Wheat (net short -15.7k), +2.0k KC Wheat (net long 19.0k) and sold 7.4k soybeans (net long 104.6k).
For the week, Friday September 16th through Friday September 23rd, December Corn -$.00 ½, March -$.01 ¼, November Soybeans -$.22 ¾, January -$.23 ½, December KC Wheat +$.15 ¼, March +$.13, December Chicago Wheat +$.20 ¾, March +$.19, December MPLS Wheat +$.10 ½, March +$.09 ¼.
Grains, equites and energies again weaker overnight as the US$ continues to run higher. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 5 lower, soybeans 2 to 5 lower and wheat 3 to 11 lower.
Seasonal temps and no moisture expected across major growing areas this week. Heavy rains for the Southeast are expected later this week and over the weekend as Hurricane Ian is on track to hit Florida. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and below normal moisture for the Plains and Corn Belt.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with resistance at the $7 level and support at $6.67 then $6.50. November soybeans continue to chop sideways to higher with resistance at last week’s high of $14.88 ¾ then the week previous at $15.08 ¾ and support at $14.02 then $13.73. December KC Wheat a new recent high last week at $9.89 ¾ with resistance at $10.10 and support at $9.23. December Chicago wheat a new recent high last week at $9.22 ½ with resistance at $9.54 and support at $8.52. December MPLS wheat has resistance at $9.83 ¼ and support at $9.27.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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