Date: March 13th, 2019
Support levels broke for live cattle futures yesterday sending them and feeders triple digits lower for the day. The nearby April live cattle contract finished with its largest daily loss. Beef prices higher again yesterday, higher everyday actually in March with Choice cutouts up over $8 this month. Hog futures held small gains though as the rally continues for the 4th trading day in a row and 7 out the past 8 days higher for the month. Cash feedlot trade so far only a few hundred head in the North at $204 to $205 on a dressed basis, steady to a slighter weaker undertone. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction later this morning with 755 head consigned compared to last week’s 300 head of which none sold.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 03/11/2019
Receipts: 3219 Last Week: No Sale Year Ago: 2337
Compared to two weeks ago: Steers 3.00-4.00 higher. Heifers 4.00-5.00 higher. Quality average to good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls mostly steady to 1.00 higher.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 03/12/2019
Receipts: 6541 Last Week: 1935 Year Ago: 7565
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers under 500 lbs mostly steady, 500 to 600 lbs 8.00 to 10.00 higher, 600 to 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 500 lbs steady to 2.00 higher, 500 to 550 lbs 8.00 to 10.00 higher, 550-600 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 higher, 600 to 700 lbs steady to 2.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers 700 to 800 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 higher, over 800 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Yearling feeder heifers over 700 steady to 3.00 lower decline on 800 to 850 lbs. Slaughter cows steady to 2.00 lower. Slaughter bulls mostly steady in a light test.
OKC West Livestock Market – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/12/2019
Receipts Last Reported Year Ago
4,000 14,167 13,159
***Preliminary report. Final report will be out on Wednesday 3/13/2019***
Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves 2.00-5.00 lower, except 5 weight heifers mostly steady. Demand mostly moderate to good.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, matching a week ago and up 2,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 477,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 13,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and light offerings for a total of 97 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__228.22 +.86
Select Cutout__212.35 +.72
CME Feeder Index__139.04 -.25
CME Lean Hog Index__52.38 +.40
Pork Carcass Cutout__67.62 +1.20
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__50.11 +1.53
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__49.61 +2.41
April live cattle diving through support levels yesterday and breaking the higher trend. The next line of support is at $125.75 then $123.50 with resistance near $130.50, the contract high just below that level and just above is the recent high from the continuous weekly chart from over a year ago. March feeders still on lower trend since late December with support at $140.35 and resistance up at $145 then $147.57. April lean hogs breaking the long term lower trend, now up over $11 from the lows set last month and resistance next up near $68.
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Big bounce/reversal higher yesterday for all the grains, yes I am going to say it…Turnaround Tuesday! Corn, wheat and meal all set new lows in the overnight session, wheat actually led the charge higher, and sitting as the most oversold right now. Managed money or funds with record or near record short positions currently for wheat and corn. US$ spiked into new highs late last week, pulling back lower since. Now follow through movement to the upside for the grains is very important today and would help stabilize the downward momentum.
IEG Vantage, formerly Informa, out with their acreage estimates yesterday with all wheat acres just slightly lower than a month ago, spring wheat down to 13.58 million acres from 13.64. Corn planting forecasted at 91.77 million acres up from 91.59 and soybean acres down ½ million to 85.5.
And the follow through looks like a rough start with all grains lower overnight. Corn finished 1 lower, soybeans 2 to 3 lower and wheat 3 to 8 lower.
World wheat prices lower overnight as well, reports that SE Asia starting to source wheat from Black Sea origins over the U.S. due to cheaper prices. France increased their export projection to 9.5 MMT of wheat for this year, up 650,000 MT from previous estimates.
Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT or 2.6 MBU of corn from Argentina overnight. Tunisia purchased 92,000 MT or 3.4 MBU of optional origin milling quality wheat. Another day without any new sales announced by USDA.
Wet and windy for most of the area here today, heavy rains push into the Southeast with a nasty blizzard for the North. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for the western 1/3 of the U.S. with below normal temps mostly in the South and finally some below normal moisture across most of the U.S, above normal creeping back into the West.
May corn hit a new contract low at $3.61 before reversing higher yesterday. The first area of resistance is up near $3.77. May soybeans taking out the long term higher trend last week with support next near $8.85 then $8.71 and resistance up near $9.20. May KC wheat with a new contact low at $4.18 ¼ then a key reversal higher yesterday, resistance up at $4.52 then $4.70. May Chicago wheat did not make a new contract low yesterday, $4.27 from Monday, resistance up at $4.64 then near $4.95. May soybean meal with a new contract low at $300.30, holding a lower trend since early January and resistance up near $310.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700