Date: September 14th, 2022
Livestock futures a very mixed bag on Tuesday with feeders the leader lower and hogs the leader higher, both in triple digit fashion. Corn held steady to lower on Tuesday, so one would have thought cattle futures would be able to hold steady as well. That was certainly not the case as inflation continues to soar with last month’s consumer prices higher than expected. This pushed equities sharply lower and the US$ sharply higher which pressured an already shaky feeder cattle market. The fact that nearby corn is back up near the $7 mark and basis continues to strengthen in the majority of cattle feeding country during harvest is still the overall pressure point. Only light volume cash fed cattle trade so far in the North at $143, steady with a week ago. Higher trade may be the only thing capable of bringing futures back around. Lean hogs broke through the nearby resistance and have now taken out the month long lower trend.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/12/2022 – Final
This Week: 9,932 Last Report 8/29/22: 7,954 Last Year: 8,759
Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder steers mostly steady. Steer calves 4.00-8.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand very good for feeder cattle and long weaned calves; moderate for others. 7 weight index steers averaged $179-$180 with the 8 weight index steers averaging $173.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/12/2022 – Final
This Week: 5,164 Last Report 8/29/22: 4,242 Last Year: 4,095
Compared to two weeks ago: Steers 6.00-8.00 higher. Heifers 4.00-7.00 lower. Value Added steers 5.00-8.00 higher. Value Added Heifers mostly steady. Quality good. Demand good.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/12/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,131 Last Report 8/29/22: 1,873 Last Year: 2,146
Compared to two weeks ago: Limited price comparisons as few steers and heifers of similar weights to last sale. Feeder steers 950-1000 lbs 2.00 to 5.00 higher, other weights not well compared. Feeder heifers 700-750 lbs and 850-900 lbs mostly steady, other weights not well compared. 7 weight index steers averaging $185 and 8 weights averaged $170-$182.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/12/2022 – Final
This Week: 7,416 Last Report 8/29/22: 5,092 Last Year: 6,059
Compared to the sale 2 weeks ago feeder steers traded 4.00-9.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 750 lbs. traded 6.00-9.00 lower with heavier weight steady to 4.00 lower. Supply and demand was moderate. 7 weight index steers averaging $183-$184 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $173-$176.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/13/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,074 Last Week: 1,748 Last Year: 3,127
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded 3.00-6.00 lower and feeder steers traded steady while feeder heifers were not well tested. Demand was moderate and improved throughout the day. 8 weight index steers averaging $168.50 to $170.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 8,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, down 7,000 compared to the week previous and down 5,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s slaughter was also revised 8,000 lower to 475,000 head.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Tuesday on good demand with 172 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__256.66 -2.28
Select Cutout__233.58 -2.18
CME Feeder Cattle Index__180.06 -.85
CME Lean Hog Index__97.67 -1.90
Pork Carcass Cutout __104.77 -.94
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__99.41 +9.98
October live cattle holding a higher trend since the May 31st low with nearby support at $142 and resistance at $146. September feeders breaking the 3 month long higher trend and nearby support with the next down at $178 and resistance at $183.60. October lean hogs taking out nearby resistance with the next up at $97 and support at $91.
Grains were mixed with corn and soybeans trading both sides of unchanged yet neither straying too far from it. Wheat was the leader higher after losing ground on Monday as the Southern Plains continue to experience above normal temps and below normal moisture. Fall harvest should progress swiftly this week as only scattered rains are in the forecast and isolated in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. It wasn’t great news to see a lack of follow through from corn and soybeans yesterday after Monday’s USDA crop report rally. U.S. corn stocks to use at 8.5% is the 4th smallest since 1995 while 4.5% for U.S. soybeans is the 5th smallest since 1990. To say they are pipeline supply is a bit of a stretch at this time, but any further reduction in either crop would be very bullish. December corn still unable to get back above the $7 mark while November soybeans did break the $15 barrier for a new recent high early Tuesday morning but then proceeded to trade lower into the close.
Grains steady to lower overnight with corn finishing 6 lower, soybeans flat to 1 lower and wheat steady to 6 lower. Equites and energies higher this morning as the US$ is lower.
The potential railroad strike coming down to the last few days for negotiations. Some railroads will begin halting grain shipments ahead of the Friday deadline as most major railways have already stopped new shipments of fertilizer and other potentially hazardous materials. Senate Republicans already introduced a resolution to force the unions to accept the presidential emergency board’s recommendations if a resolution is not reached by Friday.
Stats Canada this morning updated 2022 production estimates. All Wheat estimated at 34.7 MMT, up from 34.57 last month and higher than expected. Corn and soybean estimates slightly higher as well at 14.86 MMT and 6.5 MMT respectively. Canola estimated lower, down to 19.1 MMT vs. the prior estimate of 19.5 MMT and expectations of 19.9 MMT.
Again only scattered rains expected over this next week and primarily isolated to the upper Midwest. The 6-10 day outlook calling for below normal temps with the western third of the U.S. and above normal for everyone else with above normal moisture out West and below normal for the Plains, most of the Corn Belt and the Southeast. Already early chatter about drier than normal conditions in South America as planting begins.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with resistance at the $7 level and support around $6.50. November soybeans continue to chop sideways with wild swings the past couple months. A new recent high yesterday at $15.08 ¾, a penny above the June 30th high with resistance next at $15.15 and $15.30 and support all the way down at $13.73, the low from just last Thursday. December KC Wheat now trending higher with resistance next up at $10.10 and support around $8.80. December Chicago wheat also trending higher with resistance at $9.50 and support at $7.90. December MPLS wheat still stuck trading sideways with support at $8.80 and resistance at $9.40. October soybean meal a new contract high on Monday at $444.80 with support at $408 and resistance next at $488.40.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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