Date: April 28th, 2020
Equities higher to start the week along with most livestock futures. Cattle futures trading mostly higher yesterday with lean hogs limit higher but the newswire watching continues for the next hotspot or packing plant closure. OSHA just released guidelines to space employees at least 6 feet apart, checking temps and provide face masks yet it is too late for many employees. This has caused many plants of course to slow the chains but even worse has many to shutdown as those are now some of the main hotspots for COVID in the U.S. Cash feedlot trade on Monday reported from KS at $100, even with last week on a few loads.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/27/2020
Total Receipts: 7,093 Last Week: 5,097 Last Year: 5,042
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves steady to 4.00 lower, yearlings steady. Demand moderate to good, supply moderate to heavy.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/27/2020
Total Receipts: 10,500 Last Week: 6,015 Last Year: 9,687
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 4.00 lower. Feeder heifers 1.00-2.00 lower, except 800-900 lbs 2.00-5.00 higher. Feeder market improved as the day progressed and cattle futures closed higher. Demand moderate to good for feeders. Steer calves 4.00-8.00 lower, but weights under 450 lbs lightly tested. Heifer calves sold 4.00-10.00 lower, except over 500 lbs steady to 3.00 lower.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/27/2020
Total Receipts: 2,089 Last Week: 1,936 Last Year: 2,852
Compared to last week: Steers 7.00-9.00 lower. Heifers 6.00-8.00 lower. Demand good. Quality good. Slaughter cows 3.00-4.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 7.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 81,000 head, down 5,000 from last week and down 39,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 318,000 head, down 47,000 compared to last week and down 150,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values sharply higher and continuing into all-time new highs with 96 loads sold on Monday
Choice Cutout__311.84 +18.47
Select Cutout__298.78 +19.76
CME Feeder Index__119.72 -.24
CME Lean Hog Index__48.98 +1.26
Pork Carcass Cutout__83.71 +6.23
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__32.37 -1.84
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__32.43 -1.77
April live cattle into a new contract last Friday at $81.45, the lowest spot price since 2009, with support right around $80. April feeders expire later this week. Both the April and May contracts have been consolidating or squeezing together over the past couple weeks. May has support at $115 then $111 with resistance up at $120.85 then $124. June lean hogs contract low at $41.50 earlier this month and showing some strength on the charts since, resistance next up at $57.15 which is the April high.
Energies lower to start the week providing the most pressure to the grains. Rains are also in the forecast for dry regions of the EU and Ukraine pressuring wheat values. Export inspections for the week ending April 23rd were in line with expectations but only grain sorghum continues to exceed the weekly average needed to meet the current USDA estimate. This past week another 8.9 MBU of grain sorghum were inspected for export with China taking 8.1 MBU. Year to date shipments are now twice that of a year ago. Corn inspections totaled 42.4 MBU, under the average needed of 45.8 MBU and still trailing a year ago by 36%. The number one destination was Japan at 16.6 MBU then South Korea at 10.2 MBU. Soybean inspections totaled 20.4 MBU, the weekly average at 29.5 MBU but year to date still +6%. Egypt was the #1 destination at 4.7 MBU followed by Mexico at 3.5 MBU. Wheat inspections totaled 18.4 MBU and year to date still +5%. Mexico was the #1 destination with 3.1 MBU inspected followed by 3.0 MBU for Thailand and 2.4 MBU for South Korea.
Yesterday afternoon, USDA updated crop progress and conditions nationwide. Corn planting did jump ahead of the average as expected, up 20% from last week to 27% complete. Emergence also reported at 3% compared to 4% 5-year average. Soybeans planted now at 8% compared to 2% last week and last year and 4% average pace. Spring wheat planted at 14% nationwide compared to 7% last week, 11% last year and 29% average. Winter wheat headed up 7% this past week to 21% compared to 16% last year and 25% average. Winter wheat conditions dropped again with good to excellent ratings down 3 points to 54% and poor to very poor up 2 points to 15%.
Overnight, grains finished higher but traded both sides of unchanged. Corn finished steady to 1 higher, soybeans 2 to 4 higher and wheat 2 to 7 higher.
Australia and China seem to be in a verbal battle as the Aussie’s are calling for a probe into China’s early handling or mishandling of COVID-19. The Chinese ambassador fired back, stating that China could easily boycott Australian Ag export products. So far, Australia is holding firm though on its public health issues. Ukraine announced they will not be limiting its corn exports this season after Russia will soon meet its restricted quota for the quarter.
No export sales announced by USDA this morning. South Korea active in buying at least 2 cargoes of corn, 1 from South American origin and 1 optional origin.
Much above normal temps still in the forecast through the weekend from the West Coast into the Southern Plains with heavy rain in the Southeast then the Northeast as the week progresses. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the southern half of the US, below normal now spreading throughout the Corn Belt and Northeast with above normal precipitation across most of the county.
May corn contract low last week at $3.01, which matches the spot low from September 2016, support next down at $2.96 ¾ and first resistance up around $3.25. May soybeans with a new contract low last week also at $8.08 ¼. Support next at $7.95 then $7.80 with first resistance at $8.48 ¾. May KC wheat back to testing support around $4.69, the 50-day moving average with resistance at $4.82. May Chicago wheat breaking into a new recent low overnight at $5.17 ¼, support next at $5.08 and resistance at $5.46.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700