Date: July 17th, 2019
Cattle futures were lower yesterday after a steady day on Monday while lean hogs were lower nearby but higher on the deferred contracts from spread trading. Live cattle futures may have peaked for the week unless we can see higher cash feedlot trade or cutouts turn higher later this week. Cash feedlot trade quiet so far this week. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction later this morning with 326 head consigned compared to last week’s 423 head of which none sold. Feeders topped out last week and have traded flat since which is concerning with corn lower the past couple days and we await another cattle on feed report this Friday.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/15/2019
Total Receipts: 7,938 Last Week: 7,254 Last Year: 6,147
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 4.00 higher with instances of 6.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves not well tested. Demand good. Quality plain to average.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/15/2019
Total Receipts: 1,786 Last Week: 1,516 Last Year: 2,222
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00-7.00 higher. Heifers 5.00-6.00 higher. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows mostly steady. Slaughter bulls 5.00-6.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/15/2019
Total Receipts: 5,082 Last Week: 4,341 Last Year: 7,409
Compared to last week, steers steady, except 800 weighs 5.00 to 10.00 higher, heifers under 650 lbs steady, over 650 lbs steady to 5.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 117,000 head, down 4,000 compared to last week and last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 475,000 head, down 3,000 from a week ago but up 16,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to weak on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings for a total of 151 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__212.93 -.34
Select Cutout__189.16 -.05
CME Feeder Index__141.16 +.70
CME Lean Hog Index__70.62 -.11
Pork Carcass Cutout__75.80 +2.90
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__51.62 -.03, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__70.70 +.19
National Wtd Avg Live Price__52.44 -.38, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__69.36 +.75
August live cattle holding a higher trend with resistance next up at $110 and support at $106. August feeders into a new recent high at $143.75 last week with resistance next up at $146 and support at $136. August lean hogs on slow moving higher trend since the recent low at $73.95 back on June 24th with resistance up at $84.
Grains continued under pressure yesterday with heat this week but forecasts looking better next with a surprise storm that moved across NE and IA providing some relief. Conditions Monday night improved by 1 point nationwide for both corn and soybeans. We are still some 15 points lower than a year ago in the good/excellent ratings for both corn and beans but saw some 2 to 5 point increases in the Eastern Corn Belt. These markets will continue to remain choppy until the August crop report with re surveyed information and adjustments expected then to acreage.
Overnight, grains traded both sides of unchanged but bounced higher this morning. Corn and soybeans finished 3 to 5 higher which pulled wheat back to steady to 4 higher.
Day 13 of the KS Wheat Harvest Report, posted July 16th, by the KS Wheat Commission and KAWG. “Harvest continues to roll through northern Kansas as farmers try to pick up the pace to make up for some lost time. Yields continue to be highly variable throughout the state, with some areas seeing double the county averages, while others are making 25-30 bushels per acre. Pockets of protein continue to be reported in localized areas of the state.”
Egypt in with another tender for wheat today with last week’s securing 240,000 MT or 8.8 MBU from Romania and Ukraine. Ukraine has the lowest offer this week as Russia continues to old higher protein stocks at higher prices.
South Korea has removed its temporary ban on US wheat and flour sales after it found no traces of unapproved GM wheat. The two GM varieties discovered in a farm field in Washington state this June are Monsanto owned Roundup-ready wheat, trialed between 1998 and 2005 in the PNW but never commercialized.
The balance of this week remains very hot across most of the country with heavy rain still in the forecast for the Northern Corn Belt. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal temps west and below normal east with below normal precipitation still lingering over the majority of the Corn Belt, above normal in the South.
September corn choppy with support at $4.13 and resistance up at $4.60. The December contract looks similar with support at $4.20 and resistance up at $4.65. August soybeans with support at $8.70 and resistance up at $9.18. The November contract has support at $8.90 with resistance at $9.36. September KC holding a lower trend with support at $4.30 and resistance up at $4.72. September Chicago wheat breaking the higher trend that was in place since mid-May with support near the $5 mark and resistance up near $5.30. August Soybean Meal with good support holding at $304 and resistance up at $317.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700