Date: August 22nd, 2022
Livestock futures finished mixed and Friday and higher week over week for cattle futures while lean hogs were sharply lower. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week was steady to $8 higher. TX and KS trade reported steady to $2 higher from $140 to $142 live while live trade in the North was steady to $3 higher from $145 to $150 and dressed trade $4 to $8 higher from $234 to $238.
After the close, USDA released a bearish cattle on feed report with placements 2% higher than a year ago compared to the market expecting a 1-2% lower number. On feed and marketings were both in line with expectations at 101% and 96% respectively compared to a year earlier. Cattle on feed as of August 1st at 11.2 million head, the 2nd highest August inventory. July Placements totaled 1.77 million head and marketings totaled 1.83 million head.
For the week, Friday August 12th through Friday August 19th, August Live Cattle +$1.37, October +$.75, August Feeder Cattle +$1.87, September +$1.37, October Lean Hogs -$6.90, December -$6.22. Boxed Beef, Choice +$.91 @ $264.28, Select -$1.65 @ $237.94, Pork Carcass Cutout -$4.68 @ $117.15.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/14/22-8/20/22
Current Week: 29,445 Last Report 8/8/22: 33,267 Last Year: 26,847
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 3.00-8.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00-4.00 higher. Demand very good for feeder cattle as limited numbers continue to be the headline and out of state buyers also competing for supply. Steer calves sold 6.00-8.00 higher with 300-400 lbs. up to 20.00 higher. Heifer calves sold 5.00-10.00 higher. Demand for calves improved as rains is falling in some areas of the state and temperatures have cooled down.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 661,000 head, up 14,000 from the week previous but down 5,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 535.8 million pounds with year to date at +0.9% vs. last year and slaughter +1.1%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,395,000 head, up 70,000 compared to the week previous but down 37,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 504.6 million pounds with year to date remaining -2.9% compared to a year ago and slaughter -3.5%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday steady to lower on moderate to weak demand with 73 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__264.28 -.11
Select Cutout__237.94 +.47
CME Feeder Cattle Index__179.21 -.65
CME Lean Hog Index__120.29 -.31
Pork Carcass Cutout __117.15 -2.76
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__117.80 -6.29, 4,039 head
August live cattle hit a new contract high last week at $142 with the next price resistance now from the weekly continuous chart up at $144.22 from this past April and support down around $139. August feeders hit a new 6-month high last week at $183.72 with support down around $179 and only 4 days left of trading. The September contract is the only other yet to make new contract highs with a new recent high last week at $187.77, the contract high up at $188.25 and support down at the 20-day moving average at $183.35. October lean hogs falling off the cliff after new highs on August 11th with support at $91.90 then $86.82 and resistance around $98.
Grains mixed last Friday but held losses week over week. The soy complex led the way lower as weather has become much less threatening with good moisture across the WCB and in the Southern Plains with much milder temps. Wheat futures broke through support levels and into new recent lows midweek but reversed higher and finished strong on Friday to get back in the range bound trading pattern that has been in place since early July.
For the week, Friday August 12th through Friday August 19th, September Corn -$.13 ¾, December -$.19, September Soybeans -$.46 ¼, November -$.50 ¼, September KC Wheat -$.44 ½, December -$.45 ½, September Chicago Wheat -$.52 ¾, December -$.51 ½, September MPLS Wheat -$.44 ¾, December -$.45, September Soybean Meal -$16.00/T, October -$15.30/T.
Grains mostly steady to higher overnight, but fairly quiet trade, with outside markets bearish as the US$ is higher but equites and energies are lower. The war still rages on in Ukraine but grain shipments continue out of Black Sea. The third U.S. trade team has landed in Taiwan, this time led by the governor of Indiana as China continues military drills around the island nation. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 higher, soybeans 8 to 12 higher and wheat 2 to 3 lower.
Scattered rains with good coverage over the weekend in OK, TX and the eastern third of the U.S. Heavy rains expected to continue in the Gulf States this week with a chance of 1” rains up through parts of the Southern Plains and WCB heading into next weekend. The NWS 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps in the PNW, Northern Plains and New England and below normal in the Southwest with below normal moisture for the PNW and above normal stretching from the Southwest through the Southern Plains and into the Corn Belt.
September corn still holding the now month long higher trend with resistance at $6.40 and support at $6.08. The December contract looks similar with resistance at the new recent high from August 12th at $6.42 ¾ and support down at $6.04. November soybeans breaking the short term higher trend last week with support at $13.76 and nearby resistance tested overnight at $14.14 with the next up at $14.64. September KC Wheat a new recent low last Thursday at $8.07 ½ with resistance at $8.60 then $8.94. September Chicago wheat sideways to lower trend with a new recent low last Thursday at $7.25 ¾ and resistance at $8.20. September MPLS wheat also a new recent low at $8.50 with resistance at $9.28.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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