Date: September 9th, 2020
Livestock futures held gains yesterday to start the holiday shortened week even with another selloff in the equites and firm corn prices. Last week’s bearish cash trade as yet to spill over into this week, although I would expect to see steady to lower trade again this week. Last week’s negotiated sales only totaled 80,959 head, the lowest volume traded since early May. Showlists appear to be bigger in KS while lower in TX and NE. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 892 head consigned compared to last week’s 436 head of which 365 sold at $103 live. Lean hogs started the day lower, but another sharply higher midday report for pork led to some late day buying and closes in positive territory.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/8/2020
Total Receipts: 1,498 Last Week: 1,135
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer calves under 400 lbs steady, 400 to 600 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 instances 8.00 to 10.00 higher, 600 to 700 lbs 3,00 to 5.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers over 700 lbs lightly tested. Heifer calves 350 to 450 lbs steady, 450 to 600 5.00 to 8.00 higher, Yearling feeder heifers over 700 lbs lightly tested.
Lolli Brothers Livestock Market – Macon, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/8/2020
Total Receipts: 1,516 Last Week: 1,487 Last Year: 876
Compared to the last special two weeks ago, the best test on feeder steers weighed 650-800 lbs and sold mostly steady, with spots 2.00 lower on the 650-700 lb steers, feeder steers under 650 lbs sold with a firm to higher undertone. Feeder heifers weighing 550-600 lbs sold steady to 5.00 higher, with 600-700 lbs trading steady.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/8/2020
Total Receipts: 2,624 Last Week: 2,427 Last Year: 2,730
Compared to last week, steer calves traded 2.00 to 3.00 lower while heifer calves traded unevenly steady from 2.00 lower to 2.00 higher.
McAlester Union Livestock Auction – McAlester, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/8/2020
Total Receipts: 1,150 Last Week: 1,720 Last Year: 1,725
Compared to last week; Steer calves under 500 lbs. 6.00 to 9.00 higher, over 500 lbs. 1.00 to 5.00 higher. Heifer calves steady. Demand was good. Quality was average through attractive, mostly attractive. Slaughter cows 1.00 to 4.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 1.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 118,000 head, down 2,000 from last week and matching last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 474,000 head, down 1,000 from a week ago and down 18,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values continue lower with 130 loads sold on Tuesday.
Choice Cutout__224.82 -1.03
Select Cutout__208.46 -.84
CME Feeder Index__139.05 -1.15
CME Lean Hog Index__60.53 +1.89
Pork Carcass Cutout__80.91 +.35
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__45.89 -1.28
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__45.56 -.33
October live cattle reversing higher yesterday but still holding a lower trend since mid-August with support next at $102.50 and resistance at $106 then $109. September feeders also holding a lower trend, now down $12 since peaking in early August, with support next at $135 and resistance at $141.50. October lean hogs with an inside trading day yesterday, sharply higher last week and $12 off the contract low from earlier this summer. Nearby resistance is at $61 and support around $53.
Grains were mixed yesterday as corn and soybeans are testing resistance levels, soybeans into a new 9-mongh high, and wheat remains under pressure. I am impressed that corn held gains with crude $2 to $3 lower. Daily sales announced by USDA yesterday for more soybeans to China and corn for unknown destinations continues to support the fall crops. Export inspections split old and new crop as the fall crop marketing year began on September 1st. Corn inspections totaled 30.8 MBU, soybeans 47.6 MBU and wheat 25.6 MBU, all solid numbers. Grain sorghum though was very light at only 3,779 BU. China the most active taking 10 soybean cargoes and a cargo each of wheat and corn out of the Gulf with 4 soybeans cargoes, 2 corn and 1.2 MBU of wheat out of the PNW.
Crop progress and conditions after the close yesterday were in line with expectations. Both corn and soybean conditions dropped 1% in the good to excellent ratings. IA corn dropped another 2%, -30% for the month of August and IA soybeans -3% last week, -26% for the month of August. Corn progress is ahead of last year and the 5-year average with 79% of the nation’s crop dented and 25% mature. Soybeans dropping leaves at 20% compared to only 7% last year and 16% average. Grain sorghum is tad behind with 29% mature compared to 33% average pace and 21% harvested compared to 23% average. Spring wheat harvest is 82% complete compared to 66% last year and 87% 5-year average.
Grains again mixed and a very quiet overnight with corn 1 lower, soybeans 1 to 4 higher and wheat steady to 1 lower. November soybeans hitting another new recent high overnight.
USDA announced private sales of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans sold for unknown destinations and 238,000 MT or 8.75 MBU sold to China.
Another 1-2 inches of rain is expected to fall this week from the Great Lakes down into OK with central TX looking at 3+ inches. The current cold snap will last a couple more days with freezing temps reported from CO into NW KS up through the western and northern Corn Belt. Much above normal temps creep into the Northern Plains from the PNW heading into the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook still showing normal to below normal temps across the middle of the U.S., above normal temps for the western third of the U.S. and the Southeast with above normal moisture in the South and East and below normal from the Southwest into the Western Corn Belt.
December corn with resistance around $3.64 and support at $3.53 then $3.48. November soybeans again up for a new recent high overnight at $9.78 with the high for this year at $9.82 ¾ and support at $9.40. December KC wheat hit a new 3-month high on September 1st testing the $4.90 resistance but since has pulled lower now testing support around $4.66. December Chicago wheat also spiked higher last week to test resistance around $5.70 with support down around $5.30. December soybean meal testing resistance around $318, the highs from early March, with support at $308 then $298.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
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