Date: August 1st, 2022
Livestock futures finished out last week higher but losses earlier for the week kept cattle futures lower week over week. Sharply higher grains all week provided most of the pressure. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week steady to slightly lower with TX and KS live trade done mostly at $135 and NE at $138 live and $225 dressed. I would expect to see additional pressure on futures this week especially hogs as both pork values and cash were lower to end the week.
For the week, Friday July 22nd through Friday July 29th, August Live Cattle -$.92, October -$.77, August Feeder Cattle -$2.97, September -$2.92, August Lean Hogs +$1.95, October +$.90 Boxed Beef, Choice +$2.12 @ $269.24, Select -$.25 @ $242.25, Pork Carcass Cutout +$1.60 @ $127.34.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/24/22-7/30/22
Current Week: 28,413 Last Report 7/18/22: 39,353 Last Year: 26,768
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 4.00 to 6.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Corn prices were slightly higher. Many cattle moving off of grass this week and it seems we are nearing the end of the summer feeder run. Steer calves under 500 lbs 6.00-10.00 higher; Heifer calves under 500 lbs 5.00- 15.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves over 500 lbs. 2.00-6.00 higher. Demand turn light to moderate for calves as summers heat reached record levels this past week and many areas of the state reaching upwards of 110 degrees. Some lucky few saw some rain, however the whole state is in some stage of drought. This drought has also created a big movement of cows to market with another week of large cow runs.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 669,000 head, up 4,000 from the week previous and up 23,000 from last year which increased the year to date difference up to 1.2% ahead of last year.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,291,000 head, up 6,000 compared to the week previous but down 22,000 compared to a year ago with the year to date difference down 3.7% compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on weak demand with only 74 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__269.24 +1.47
Select Cutout__242.25 +1.44
CME Feeder Cattle Index__172.31 -.24
CME Lean Hog Index__121.42 +.84
Pork Carcass Cutout __127.34 -1.45
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__117.08 -2.51, only 2,919 head
August live cattle now in delivery and holding near the southern cash values with support at $135.70, $135.25 and $134.65 while resistance still in place around $138 with the most recent high at $138.07. August feeders holding a 2-month long higher trend with support around $175.20 and resistance at $181.82. August lean hogs a month long higher trend and new 3-month high on Friday at $120.90 with resistance at $121.25, the contract high at $123.65 and support at $111.
Soybeans finished out last week very strong as they were the leader higher all week. Corn also followed higher while wheat was mixed throughout the week, falling back on Friday but still able to post gains week over week.
For the week, Friday July 22nd through Friday July 29th, September Corn +$.52, December +$.55 ¾, August Soybeans +$2.02 ½, November +$1.52 ¾, September KC Wheat +$.54 ¼, December +$.54, September Chicago Wheat +$.48 ¾, December +$.48 ¼, September MPLS Wheat +$.35, December +$.34, August Soybean Meal +$63.80/T, October +$37.30/T.
Grains did open higher last night but that did not last long. Outside markets provided pressure with the US$ higher and crude lower and by the time grains opened this morning, the US$ was lower and crude down over $4. The Euro weather model run for the U.S. adding in some scattered rain chances later this week. Corn finished the overnight 14 to 15 lower, soybeans 28 to 31 lower and wheat 12 to 19 lower.
Ukraine has now shipped its first vessel carrying grain from Odessa through the Black Sea since Russia invaded in February. There were also reports that the founder and owner of one of Ukraine’s largest grain producing and exporting companies and his wife were killed in their home over the weekend from direct missile strikes from Russia.
Today begins the next round of excessive heat. The NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts still calling for above normal temps and below normal moisture centered on the Corn Belt with above normal moisture for the western 1/3 of the U.S.
September corn a new recent high last Friday at $6.32 with resistance next from $6.65 to $6.70 and support at $5.92 then the recent low from a week ago Friday down at $5.61 ½. The December contract looks about the same, up to $6.36 ½ last Friday, resistance from
$6.50 to $6.60 and the low on July 22nd down at $5.61 ¾. August soybeans now in delivery with no daily trading limits and most bidding for old crop and new crop soybeans off the November contract. November soybeans up to $14.89 last Friday, resistance at $15.08 and support around $13.70. September KC Wheat a new 5-month low on July 22nd at $8.14 ½ up to a new recent high last Friday before reversing lower at $9.15. September Chicago wheat also a new 5-month low on July 22nd at $7.54 with resistance at $8.45. September MPLS wheat has support holding right around $8.70 and resistance at $9.56.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
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