Date: March 29th, 2022
Cattle futures actually held better than expected with the bearish cattle on feed report last Friday. Lean hogs were higher but somewhat quiet after last week’s sharply higher moves. All livestock futures desperately seeking more direction to start this week with almost all contracts trading both sides of unchanged and only $1 ranges.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/28/2022
This Week: 8,660 Last Week: 8,458 Last Year: 8,889
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00 – 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00 – 3.00 higher. Stocker cattle 5.00 – 9.00 higher. Steer calves 7.00 – 10.00 higher with instances 15.00 higher. Heifer calves 5.00 – 9.00 higher with instances 14.00 higher.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/28/2022
This Week: 2,390 Last Week: 2,235 Last Year: 2,704
Compared to last week: Steers 4.00-6.00 higher. Heifers 5.00-7.00 higher. Value Added Cattle 3.00-5.00 higher.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/28/2022
This Week: 5,832 Last Week: 7,024 Last Year: 5,718
Feeder steers traded steady to 6.00 higher with feeder heifers trading steady.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/28/2022
This Week: 3,944 Last Week: 3,596 Last Year: 2,361
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 lower except 500lbs – 550lbs, 800lbs – 950lbs steady to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 5.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 124,000 head, up 5,000 from last week and up 7,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 476,000 head, up 8,000 compared to a week ago but down 7,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday higher but poor demand with only 71 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__263.87 +1.23
Select Cutout__256.32 +4.18
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.11 +.29
CME Lean Hog Index__102.93 +.68
Pork Carcass Cutout __107.41 -2.49
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 105.89 -2.95 on 8,425 head
April live cattle chopping sideways over the past couple weeks but still holding a higher trend since bottoming out back on March 4th with nearby support at $138 and resistance at $141.50. March feeders still stuck in the lower end of recent trading with support at $155.20 and resistance at $158. Deferred contracts still look better but choppy trade as well recently. The August contract has support at $176.80 with resistance at $181.65. April lean hogs breaking the range bound trading this month for a new recent high yesterday at $108.45, the contact high at $112.85 back on February 23rd and support at $102.60. The June contract though making new contract highs, up to $126.87 yesterday with support around $116.
Grains were sharply lower on Monday led by wheat and soybeans which pulled corn lower as well. The biggest news coming out of the weekend is supposedly a strategy shift by Russia in Ukraine to secure the Eastern regions and also the COVID lockdown by China in Shanghai.
Grains inspected for the week ending March 24th were friendly again for corn and grain sorghum but only routine at least compared to past few weeks for soybeans and wheat. Corn inspections totaled 63.2 MBU compared to a weekly average needed to meet USDA’s export estimate at 52.6 MBU. The top 3 destinations were China, Japan and Mexico. Grain sorghum inspections totaled 13.5 MBU with average weekly needed only at 6.3 MBU. China remains the #1 weekly destination taking 95% of the total. Soybean inspections totaled 23.1 MBU, still above the average weekly needed but also still down 20% vs. last year at this time. China the #1 destination taking half the total followed by 2+ MBU to Vietnam, Egypt, Germany and Mexico. Wheat inspections totaled 12.5 MBU with the weekly average needed up at 14.7 MBU. Mexico, Japan, the Philippines and Colombia were the top destinations.
Overnight, grains were actually fairly stable until news begin being reported about constructive peace talks between Russia and Ukraine around 6:30 this morning. This sent wheat sharply lower along with energies and US$ lower as well and equities pointing higher. Corn finished the overnight 15 to 25 lower, soybeans 17 to 22 lower and wheat 50 to 77 lower.
USDA will report prospective plantings and quarterly stocks this Thursday. The average trade estimate for corn planted acres is right at 92 million, down 1.4 million from a year ago, with a range from 89.7 to 93.5 million acres. Soybean planted acres are expected to be at 88.7 million, up 1.5 million acres from a year ago, with a range from 86 to 92.2 million. This prospective plantings report is generated from producer survey information at the beginning of March as December corn continued to make new contract highs into last week but November soybeans have yet to take out the spike high from February 24th. All wheat acres expected to be 47.9 million, up 1.2 million vs. last year. Winter wheat acres already projected to be at 34.4 million, the highest in six years.
The best rain chances for the balance of this week are in the Corn Belt and Southeast with improving chance for portions of the Southern Plains when adding in the weekend and early next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps in the West and a pocket of below normal for the Midwest with above normal moisture from the Rockies the East Coast.
May corn breaking nearby support overnight with the next down at $7.11 and resistance up around $7.50. The December contract continues to hold a higher trend, although that is being tested today with price support at $6.28 and the new contract high last week up at $6.80 ½. May soybeans with support down around $16.38 and resistance around $16.80. The November contract breaking nearby support overnight with the next at $14.20 and resistance at $14.80. May KC wheat also breaking support overnight with the next down around the $9 level. The July contract has support next at $9.83 with resistance at $11.01. May Chicago wheat with support at $9.35 and resistance at $10.80 while July looks similar with support at $9.20 and resistance around $11. May Mpls wheat with support around $10 and resistance at $11.20. May Soybean Meal still holding a higher trend with a new contract high last Friday at $494.70 and support around $470.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336