Date: June 21st, 2022
Livestock futures finished last week on a higher note with lean hogs able to make gains 4 out of the last 5 trading days and hit new recent highs. Live cattle continue to lead the way higher as slaughter rates remain high, fed cattle supply is current and beef demand is strong. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week $2 to $7 higher than the week previous. Live trade in the South ranging from $136 to $140 and in the North from $140 to a few up at $150 with dressed trade from $230 to $232 and a few up to $235.
For the week, Friday June 10th through Friday June 17th, June Live Cattle +$1.82, August +$.37, August Feeder Cattle -$1.52, September -$1.25, July Lean Hogs +$5.52, August +$4.12. Boxed Beef, Choice -$5.06 @ $266.26, Select -$2.36 @ $246.53, Pork Carcass Cutout +$5.45 @ $114.61.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/20/2022
This Week: est 6,500 Last Week: 7,921 Last Year: 8,843
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer calves mostly steady. Heifer calves 3.00 -6.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $168-$170 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $154.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/20/2022
This Week: 1,643 Last Week: 2,157 Last Year: 1,900
Compared to last week: Steers 5.00-7.00 higher. Heifers mostly steady to 4.00 higher.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/20/2022
This Week: 5,584 Last Week: 5,456 Last Year: 5,723
Compared to last week feeder steers under 500 lbs traded steady to 6.00 higher. Steers over 500 lbs. traded 6.00-12.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded 6.00-11.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $163-$166 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $166-$167.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 667,000 head, down 7,000 from the week previous but up 3,000 from last year. Monday’s slaughter estimated at 124,000 head, up 4,000 from last week and up 7,000 from last year. Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,372,000 head, matching the week previous but down 72,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s slaughter estimated at 467,000 head, up 7,000 compared to last week and matching a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice but lower on Select on Monday on moderate demand with 106 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__266.50 +.24
Select Cutout__246.39 -.14
CME Feeder Cattle Index__162.17 +1.61
CME Lean Hog Index__108.54 -.21
Pork Carcass Cutout __111.87 -2.74
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__115.72 -1.62, 5,009 head from 6/17
June live cattle eclipsing $138 for a new 2-month high with support down at $134 then $132.50 and resistance at the $140 level, the spike high back in April, then the contract high at $143.35 from February. August feeders choppy trade recently with support down at $170.50 then $169.40 and resistance at the three spike highs over the past three months from $176.87 just last week to $178.22 back in April. July lean hogs a new high for the week with support holding at $103.50 and resistance at next up at $114.
Corn and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged to end last week but finished the day with small losses as all three markets were sharply lower entering the 3-day holiday weekend. Markets are closed on Monday so some of the pressure could be harvest pressure/pre-hedging ahead of the long weekend. Winter wheat harvest will advance swiftly with the continued hot and dry weather. This doesn’t explain the MPLS spring wheat market taking a hit though, more so maybe a sympathetic follower to both KC and Chicago. The US$ also rebounded sharply higher on Friday, after a collapse on Thursday that was proceeded by a new all-time high on Wednesday as the Fed announced the 75 basis point hike, the largest one time move since 1994. Energies collapsing on Friday pushing crude back down to $108/barrel after recent highs over $123 earlier in the week.
For the week, Friday June 10th through Friday June 17th, July Corn +$.11 ¼, December +$.10 ½, July Soybeans -$.43 ½, November -$.31 ¾, July KC Wheat -$.57 ½, September -$.57 ¼, July Chicago Wheat -$.36 ½, September -$.38, July MPLS Wheat -$.52, September -$.51 ¼, July Soybean Meal +$9.00/T, October +$3.80/T.
Grains all gapped lower in the overnight and proceeded sharply lower around 6 this morning. Some of the heat now taken back out of the extended forecasts looks to be the main pressure on the markets this morning. EU grain production all lowered due to recent heat. Ukraine expects to hit their maximum export capacity of 2 MMT this month, up from 1.7 MMT in May. Equities are pointing higher this morning, US$ is lower and energies are higher with crude over $2 higher. Corn finished the overnight 17 to 21 lower, soybeans 20 to 26 lower, and wheat 11 to 17 lower.
Scattered rains yesterday in MT, ND, SD and MN. Excessive heat still this week for central states and down into the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps in the Southeast and out West but below normal from the Southwest up into the Corn Belt with above normal moisture in the Southwest but will below normal moisture for the Corn Belt.
July corn gapping lower and breaking the 3-week long higher trend with nearby support at $7.58 and resistance at $8.00. The December contract with support next around $6.95 and resistance at $7.50. July soybeans a new recent low overnight with the contract high just two weeks ago at $17.84. Support next at $16.65 with nearby resistance at $17.24. The November contract still holding the long-term higher trend with support at $14.95 and resistance around $15.50. July KC Wheat breaking the recent rangebound trading with support next at $10.80 and resistance at $11.60. July Chicago wheat with support at $10.00 and resistance at $10.85. July MPLS wheat support at $11.47 and resistance at $12.20. July Soybean Meal with support around $420 and resistance at $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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