Date: December 20th, 2021
Livestock futures mostly lower last Friday and for the week. Cash fed cattle trade dropped another $2 last week for a top at $138 live in the South, $140 live and $220 dressed in the North. The full range of trade was even worse with TX down to $134 to $136 live.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/12/2021 – 12/18/2021
Current Week: 45,864 Last Week: 51,902 Last Year: 27,791
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 4.00 lower. Feeder heifers mostly 2.00-7.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Steer calves steady to 2.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 5.00 lower. Demand moderate for most calves, except light weight calves which sold to good demand.
For the week, Friday December 10th through Friday December 17th, December Live Cattle -$2.10, February -$1.65, January Feeder Cattle -$4.62, March -$3.60, February Lean Hogs -$.22, April -$1.20. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.53 @ $263.01, Select -$3.96 @ $248.28, Pork Carcass Cutout -$.37 @ $85.82.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 120,000 head and Saturday at 58,000. For the week, 657,000 head, down 11,000 from the week previous but up 2,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 550.6 million pounds compared to 558.6 million the week previous and 550.1 million last year. Year to date beef production is +2.4% compared to last year with slaughter +2.8%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 475,000 head and Saturday at 332,000. For the week, 2,645,000 head, up 75,000 compared to the week previous but down 155,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 574.4 million pounds compared to 556.7 million the week previous and 610.3 million last year. Year to date pork production is -2.5% compared to a year ago with slaughter -2.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday steady to higher on light to moderate demand with 107 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__263.01 +.04
Select Cutout__248.28 +.14
CME Feeder Cattle Index__161.04 -.04
CME Lean Hog Index__72.33 -.08
Pork Carcass Cutout __85.82 -5.67
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 59.41 -.68
December live cattle do not expire until the 31st but volume is already very thin and remains discount to cash trade by $2 to $3. The February contract hit a contract high on November 29th at $141.85 with support tested to end last week just under $136. The higher trend that had been in place since early October has been taken out this month. The long term higher trend still intact with major support down around $130. January feeders remain choppy with resistance at $166 and support tested Friday at $160 then down at $156.80. February lean hogs chopping in a $14 range since June with support at $74 and resistance at $82.70.
Grains finished last week on a higher note and all except Chicago wheat higher for the week. News still light, typical for this time of year. South American weather one of the main items the grain markets are tracking along with export demand. The soy complex continued to lead the way higher.
For the week, Friday December 10th through Friday December 17th, March Corn +$.03 ¼, May +$.02 ¼, January Soybeans +$.17 ½, March +$.14 ¼, March KC Wheat +$.04 ½, July +$.03, March Chicago Wheat -$.10 ¼, July -$.13 ¼, March MPLS Wheat +$.00 ¾, January Soybean Meal +$12.70/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with the soy complex again the leader higher. Equities and energies sharply lower to start the day as the markets continue to show COVID fear. Corn finished the overnight 2 lower, soybeans steady to 4 higher, and wheat 6 to 10 lower.
Russian wheat prices lower now for three straight weeks as export taxes have been increased. Argentina now looking to restrict new crop wheat exports as well. China rumored to have bought a couple more cargoes of soybeans but no daily sales announced by USDA this morning.
Mostly dry conditions continue for the Southern Plains this week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing normal to above normal temps across the southern half of the country and below normal for the Northwest with above normal moisture for the western third and below normal for the Southern Plains. Below normal moisture in the 6-10 outlook again for Brazil’s southern grain areas and in Argentina.
March corn still trending higher with a new 4-month high last week at $5.98 ¾, just a penny below the August spike high, with support at $5.85 then around $5.60. January soybeans breaking into a new recent high as well last week at $12.97 ½ with resistance next up at $13.17 and support at $12.60 then $12.38. March KC wheat still holding a lower trend since the contract high from November at $8.92 ¼ with support at $7.81 and resistance at $8.17 then $8.48. March Chicago wheat also trending lower this month but still holding a long-term higher trend with support at $7.51 and resistance at $7.92 then at $8.12. March MPLS wheat chopping sideways from $9.91 to $10.66 since late October. January Soybean Meal a new 6-month high last week at $384 with resistance next up around $390 and support at $361.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700