Date: September 27, 2023
Livestock futures, specifically cattle futures, took the brunt of the looming government shutdown coming at the end of week. Equities were sharply lower with the DOW down over 400 points yesterday, the largest 1-day drop since March. The friendly cattle on feed report from last Friday sure is getting washed out this week from the outside market pressure. Some deferred feeder contracts reaching $6 lower at one point yesterday. No cash feedlot trade reported yet but it does appear holding steady would be a huge win this week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/25/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,296 Last Week: 7,286 Last Year: 6,794
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers 2.00-4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Steer calves 4.00-8.00 lower, except under 450 lbs mostly steady. Heifer calves 10.00-15.00 lower. Un-weaned calves up to 20.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $257-$262 and 8 weights averaged $246-$247.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/25/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,598 Last Week: 4,344 Last Year: 5,372
Compared to last week: A much needed rain throughout the trade area kept receipts too few to establish a proper trend, however, a lower undertone is noted on both steers and heifers. Demand remains good. Quality also good.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/25/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,587 Last Week: 8,067 Last Year: 5,858
Compared to last week feeder steers under 750 lbs. sold 4.00-8.00 lower with heavier weights steady. Feeder heifers under 750 lbs. sold 2.00- 4.00 lower with heavier weights steady. Supply was moderate with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $258-$261 and 8 weights averaged $244-$248.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/26/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,383 Last Week: 3,486 Last Year: 2,348
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were 5.00-7.00 lower. Steer and heifers calves were uneven from 5.00 lower to 5.00 higher with the gain on long-time weaned and vaccinated calves. Demand was moderate on a moderate supply.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/25/2023 – Final
This Week: 1,175 Last Week: 3,086 Last Year: 1,699
Compared to last week’s much larger offering: Steer and heifer calves sold firm, yearling feeder steers too lightly tested for comparison, heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Very good demand for steer and heifer calves, they were offered in small packages and the quality was only average but the market was very active as there were many buyers eager to buy light calves. Good demand for yearlings remains, flesh condition is the factor that is affecting the market the most. Today’s yearlings were mostly in a moderate plus amount, however there were some light fleshed cattle.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, up 1,000 from last week but down 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 487,000 head, up 3,000 compared to a week ago but down 9,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on good demand with 157 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -1.94 @ 299.54, Select Cutout -1.35 @ 279.10
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 253.90, Lean Hog Index @ 86.31
Pork Carcass Cutout -.58 @ 98.28
October live cattle hit a new contract and all-time spot high last week at $187.45 with nearby support tested and holding yesterday at $184.65, the next down at $183. September feeders broke through nearby support but just barely as they are set to expire later this week. The contract and all-time spot high was back on September 15th at $257.50. The October contract hit a new contract high on the 15th as well at $264.67, but holding a lower trend since. Nearby support also taken out with the next at $252.85 then $250.25. October lean hogs took out the month-long higher trend this week with support around $81 and resistance at $86.
Grains were mixed but mostly steady to higher on Tuesday. Harvest will progress swiftly this week with wide open warm and dry weather in the forecast for most. Soybean conditions did drop another couple points in the weekly crop progress and conditions report. I continue to hear early harvest reports that pod counts were there but missing beans and/or small seed size. Funds still carry a net long position only in soybeans and that certainly seems like the best play with current conditions and already very tight ending stocks.
Overnight, all grains traded both sides of unchanged but again mostly steady to higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 higher, soybeans 4 to 5 higher and wheat 1 lower to 1 higher. Outside markets have equites, US$ and energies higher with crude up $2/barrel and back above $92.
Egypt tendering for wheat again today with a very surprising and much cheaper FOB offer from Ukraine. Freight could push that offer out of 1st place though as cargo insurance is very expensive if still able to get covered. Bulgaria and France came in the next cheapest which has been the case over these past few weeks.
End of the month and quarter hit this Friday along with USDA’s update on Quarterly Stocks. For the fall crops, these will now be the old crop ending stocks whereas wheat will include this summer’s production numbers which can shift USDA’s next production estimates. The average trade estimates for corn at 1.429 BBU and soybeans at 242 MBU are both slightly lower than earlier this month. If confirmed, this would be a 3-year high for corn but 7-year low for soybeans. The average trade estimate for wheat is 1.772 BBU which would be a 16-year low.
Warm and dry weather in the forecast for most over this next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from the Rockies to the East Coast with below normal temps West and above normal moisture across the Plains and Western Corn Belt with below normal moisture for the majority of the eastern half of the U.S.
December corn breaking through the nearly two-month long lower trend and testing nearby resistance overnight with the next right around the $5 level. November soybeans hitting a new recent low Monday at $12.84 ½, the August low down at $12.82 ¼ and nearby resistance at $13.22. December Chicago wheat contract low on September 12th at $5.70 with resistance at $6.07 ½. December KC wheat a new recent low on Monday at $7.03 with resistance around $7.50. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on September 5th at $7.56 ¾ with resistance at $7.91. October soybean meal has support at $383 and resistance around the $400 level.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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