Date: July 21st, 2021
Cattle futures lower again yesterday with grains holding higher. Lean hogs rallied back higher after Monday’s triple digit lower trading. Texas cash pool, no trades with bids down at $118 live compared to last week’s trade at $120 live. Light volume cash feedlot trade in the North so far this week at $198 to $200 on a dressed basis, steady with last week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/19/2021
This Week: 7,184 Last Week: 8,859 Last Year: 7,584
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Steers calves 1.00 – 2.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 2.00 higher. Quality not as attractive as last week and mostly average. Demand was good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/19/2021
This Week: 2,482 Last Week: 3,230 Last Year: 1,806
Compared to last week: Steers 4.00-6.00 lower. Heifers steady to 4.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain thru attractive. Slaughter cows 9.00 lower. Slaughter bulls also 9.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/19/2021
This Week: 4,211 Last Week: 6,764 Last Year: 4,145
Compared to last week, feeder steers traded 3.00 – 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded 2.00 to 7.00 higher with the most gain on weights over 650 lbs. Supply moderate with good demand.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/20/2021
This Week: 3,110 Last Week: 3,892 Last Year: 2,892
Compared to last week, feeder steers traded 3.00 to 5.00 lower while feeder heifers traded steady to 1.00 higher. Demand was moderate to good on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 474,000 head, up 10,000 compared to a week ago and matching a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values continued lower on Tuesday on continued good demand with 152 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__264.88 -1.61, everyday lower since June 10th except for 1 day-July 6th
Select Cutout__248.58 -.91
CME Feeder Cattle Index__150.90 +.17
CME Lean Hog Index__112.33 +.07
Pork Carcass Cutout__120.34 -1.51
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__111.92 +1.56
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__109.84 +3.60
USDA will update monthly Cattle on Feed this Friday with expectations for lower on feed and placements and higher marketings than a year ago. The range of the pre report estimates are Cattle on Feed, 98.4 to 99.1%, Placements 91.7 to 97%, Marketings 102 to 103.4%. Over theses next few months, I would expect to see more lightweight cattle placed due to the drought in the West and Northern Plains. Although June placements are projected below a year ago, they could still be a few points above the 2015-2019 average.
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend but lower trend since the contract high on June 16th at $125.77 with nearby support around $119 and resistance at $121.60. August feeders trending higher since early May but very choppy with support at $153.60 and resistance at $161. August lean hogs holding a month long higher trend after the June collapse from the contract high at $120.55 to the recent low at $96.50 with nearby support right around the $100 level and resistance at $106.80.
Grains higher and all holding gains expect MPLS wheat for the second trading day in a row. Spring wheat conditions updated by USDA again lower Monday after the close which sparked a higher overnight and open but nearby contracts hit resistance levels and unable to push through which brought sellers back in to press prices lower. Corn and soybeans stayed firm as forecasts continue to call for hot and dry until the end of July. Some hot and dry weather will be welcome though for water logged parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt. Outside markets, equities and energies, also bounced higher on Tuesday after collapsing on Monday which helped provide underlying support.
Grains traded mixed overnight but finished mostly higher with corn 4 to 6 higher, soybeans steady to 4 higher, KC and Chicago wheat 6 to 8 higher but MPLS wheat 1 to 2 lower.
News fairly light overnight as was trading volume. Weather still the main driver with another freeze being reported in producing areas of Brazil. Here in the U.S., rains isolated to the Southwest for this week as much above normal temps stretch from the PNW into the Plains and WCB. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps and below normal moisture for all except in the Southwest.
September corn with support at $5.20, a new recent high overnight and resistance next the $6.26 spike high on July 1. December corn with support around $5.50, also a new recent high overnight and resistance up at $6.11. August soybeans trending higher this past month with support at $14.00 and resistance at $14.80. November soybeans with support around $13.70 and resistance at $14.23. September KC wheat with support around $6.65 and resistance at $6.75. September Chicago wheat with support around $6.50 at resistance at $7.23. September MPLS wheat a new contract high on Monday at $9.44 ½ with the next upside target at $9.75 and nearby support down around $8.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700