Date: May 16th, 2022
Livestock futures rebounding to finish mostly higher on Friday but still lower week over week. Cash feedlot trade steady to a shade weaker with trade in KS and TX at $140 live but full range down to $137. Trade in the North from $140 to $144 live and $227 to $230 on a dressed basis. USDA projected 2023 supply and demand for the meats for the first time as beef supply is expected lower than this year with pork and poultry supply projected higher. Cattle herd liquidation still continues providing additional pounds of beef near term but bullish long term.
For the week, Friday May 6th through Friday May 13th, June Live Cattle -$.67, August -$3.00, May Feeder Cattle -$1.67, August -$6.67, June Lean Hogs -$3.35, July -$5.85. Boxed Beef, Choice +$4.51 @ $258.95, Select -$1.16 @ $243.90, Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.53 @ $101.17.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/8/2022 – 5/14/2022
Current Week: 28,105 Last Report 5/2/22: 27,817 Last Year: 24,842
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 2.00 lower. Demand moderate for feeder cattle as grains move higher. Demand continues good for the heavier weight cattle as it is cheaper to buy the cattle than to put on the weight. Steer calves sold steady to 3.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 120,000 head and Saturday 42,000 head. For the week, 657,000 head, matching the week previous and up 13,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 544.5 million pounds with the year to date difference at +0.9% vs. last year and year to date slaughter +0.6%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 438,000 head and Saturday 48,000 head. For the week, 2,375,000 head, down 39,000 compared to the week previous and down 9,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 518.4 million pounds with year to date pork production at -4.9% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter -5.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice and lower on Select on moderate demand with 92 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__258.95 +1.75
Select Cutout__243.90 -.46
CME Feeder Cattle Index__156.36 -.25
CME Lean Hog Index__100.49 -.55
Pork Carcass Cutout __101.17 +2.57
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__101.47 -4.89, only 2,867 head
June live cattle still holding a lower trend and steep discount to cash with support at the May low at $131.02 then the March low at $130.97 with resistance at $132.30 then $136.30. May feeders holding a 3-month long lower trend with support at $156.22 then the contract low from last May down at $153 and resistance around $160 then $162.85. June lean hogs continue to make new recent lows with support next around $95 and resistance at $107.50.
Wheat futures were mixed after touching limit higher on Thursday from a bullish USDA crop report. Wheat yields cut more than expected along with world stocks lower. Corn yield for this upcoming marketing year was published for the first time and unexpectedly this early for USDA below trendline estimates. Planting progress should have made some big strides this past week except in the still waterlogged northern areas. Soybeans shot higher to end the week as China bought a couple more cargoes of old crop which has hardly ever happened this late in the marketing year with harvest ready supplies available in South America.
For the week, Friday May 6th through Friday May 13th, July Corn -$.03 ½, December +$.28, July Soybeans +$.24 ½, November +$.27 ½, July KC Wheat +$1.11 ½, September +$1.74, July Chicago Wheat +$.69, September +$.71 ¼, July MPLS Wheat +$1.16 ¼, September +$1.12 ½, July Soybean Meal -$4.30, October -$1.00.
Wheat again the leader for the grains overnight as India banned wheat exports, except to governments requesting for food security so maybe call this just a “soft” ban, due to record heat and soaring domestic prices. India is the 2nd largest wheat producer in the world behind China, but like China consumes most of that domestically. India was previously projecting record wheat exports this year, still only 4-5% of the world total, but offsetting some of lack of exports out of Ukraine as Russia still controls the Black Sea. Corn and soybeans were higher overnight as well with equites pointing lower, energies and US$ lower. Corn and soybeans finished the overnight 12 to 16 higher with wheat 45 to 60 higher.
NOPA’s April soybean crush data will be released later this morning. The average trade estimate for domestic crush is 172.3 MBU, down from 181.7 MBU in March with one less day in the month for processing but well above the April 2021 crush of 160.3 MBU.
This week’s weather is mixed with what looks like some openings for planting progress to made but also scattered rains with the heaviest amounts stretching down from the Dakota’s and MN to MO then east into the southern parts of IL and IN. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps across the north with above normal temps on both coasts and below normal moisture for the Southwest with above normal moisture for the eastern half of the country. Below normal precipitation remains in the forecast for central Brazil’s safrinha or 2nd crop corn areas.
July corn rebounding after a new recent low last Monday and the nearby support now at $7.69 with resistance tested overnight around $8.03 then the contract high from April 29th at $8.24 ½. The December contract hit a new contract high overnight at $7.66, the third highest price for a December contract, with support around $7.40. July soybeans still very choppy trade, $1.80 range over the past 3 months, with nearby support around $15.80 and resistance around $17. The November contract still holding a long term higher trend with support tested at $14.38 last Monday, gapping higher overnight and resistance next up around $15.40. July KC Wheat also gapping higher overnight and into a new all-time high for a July contract with the spot contract high up at $13.84 ¾ from February 2008. July Chicago wheat gapping higher overnight but still unable to test the contract high from March 8th at $12.78 ¼. July MPLS also gapping higher overnight and continues to make new contract highs now up at $13.85. July Soybean Meal into new 4-month lows last week at $395 with support next around $385 and resistance at $430.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336