Date: November 20, 2023
No fireworks across the cattle complex on Friday as neither live cattle nor feeders had any huge swings either direction, unlike the $3+ moves that we’ve seen throughout the past week. Both fats and feeders tested the waters lower shortly after the open last Friday but managed to climb themselves out of the red and finish mixed for fats with $1+ gains for feeders. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week was steady to $3 lower with most live trade at $178 and dressed trade at $282.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…December Live Cattle +$1.57, February +$2.15, January Feeder Cattle +$2.07, March +$2.35, December Lean Hogs -$.92, February -$.12, Choice Boxed Beef -$6.59 at $293.87 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.26 at $88.16.
After the close, USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report which was actually neutral to slightly friendly. Cattle and calves on feed totaled 11.9 million head on November 1, 2023. The inventory was 2% above a year ago and right in line with expectations. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.16 million head, only 4% above last year with the average trade estimate at 7% higher. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.76 million head, 3 percent below 2022 and slightly less than expected.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/12/2023 – 11/18/2023
Receipts: Current Week 39,048 Last Week: 35,646 Last Year: 36,547
Compared to last week: Feeder steer sold 5.00-10.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded 4.00-8.00 lower. Steer calves that were weaned and suitable for wheat pasture 8.00-15.00 higher. Heifer calves and un weaned steers sold 4.00-8.00 lower. Demand light for feeders and un weaned steers and all heifer calves, good for weaned light weight steers.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 636,000 head, up 18,000 from the week previous but down 36,000 from last year. Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,649,000 head, up 72,000 compared to the week previous and up 51,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on Choice but sharply higher on Select on moderate to weak demand with 85 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.85 @ 293.87, Select Cutout +3.05 @ 270.70
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 228.64, Lean Hog Index @ 75.09
Pork Carcass Cutout +2.24 @ 88.16
December live cattle down to a recent low at $173.15 on November 10th, the lowest since this past May, with support next at $168 and resistance at $178 then $185. January feeders also down to a new recent low on the 10th at $223.62, the lowest since early April. Support next down around $219 with resistance at $231.40 then $242.30. December lean hogs very choppy this month from $70 low to the recent high $74.27 with the next upside targets at $76.10.
Grains were all in the red last Friday and only corn and soybean meal able to hold small gains for the week. Soybeans were hit the hardest on Friday following a sharply lower day on Thursday and new recent highs on Wednesday before reversing lower. KC Wheat hit new lows to the end the week as Chicago took out the short term higher trend. Technical selling and some unexpected rains in Brazil were the main pressure points. Funds were net buyers for all expect KC wheat for the week ending November 14th based on the weekly CFTC report, but estimated net sellers of all grains and oilseeds to wrap up last week. Recent rains in Brazil have certainly helped some stressed areas but the forecast remains hot and dry into December.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn +$.03, March +$.06 ¼, January Soybeans -$.07 ¼, March -$.04 ¼, December Chicago Wheat -$.24 ½, March -$.23 ½, December KC Wheat -$.22, March -$.23 ¼, December MPLS Wheat -$.15, March -$.10 ¾, December Soybean Meal +$3.9/T.
Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans took a leadership role higher again. Both corn and beans rallied the last hour of overnight trading with corn finishing steady to 1 higher, soybeans 8 to 11 higher while wheat held 1 to 2 lower. The soy complex did start lower with the quick reaction to the new Ag friendly president elected in Argentina. New policy will take some time to enact though and weather is certainly more important in the near term in South America. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ lower and energies higher with crude oil up $1.40/barrel. The fall in the US$ trying to help spur some additional export demand now down a new 2-month low. USDA reported a private sale this morning 104,000 MT or 4.1 MBU of corn sold to Mexico.
Wet weather to begin this week across from the Plains and into the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps across the U.S. with above normal precipitation in the South and below normal precip in the Northwest and Corn Belt.
December corn has recent low this month at $4.61 with support next at $4.55 ¾ from the continuous weekly chart and nearby resistance at $4.81. January soybeans up to a new recent high last week at $13.98 ½ with the next upside target at $14.20 and nearby support at $13.26 then at $12.98. December Chicago wheat again taking out the higher trend last week with the contract low at $5.40 resistance around $5.70. December KC wheat hitting a new contract low overnight at $6.12 ½ with resistance around $6.60. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on October 31st at $7.03 ¼ with resistance at $7.40. December soybean meal up to a new contract high last week at $479 with nearby support down at $422.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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