Date: June 21st, 2021
Livestock futures mixed to finish a wild week controlled mostly by sharply lower grains, lower beef and pork for the week yet higher cash feedlot trade for the first time in two months. Negotiated fat cattle trade began early in the week in the North at $4 higher than the week previous, $124 live and $195 dressed. Trade in the South followed and was wrapped up by midweek at $122 live which is $2 higher. Lean hog futures sharply lower last week as pork prices collapsed and exports have slowed recently.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/13/2021 – 6/19/2021
Current Week: 35,419 Last Week: 37,502 Last Year: 35,490
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00-6.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 5.00-8.00 higher. Demand very good for feeder cattle as slaughter cattle prices moved higher and grain prices sold off cheaper. Steer and heifer calves under 500 lbs sold 3.00-7.00 lower; over 500 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Demand moderate for calves but most auctions had light numbers.
For the week, Friday June 11th through Friday June 18th, June Live Cattle +$2.35, August +$1.52, August Feeder Cattle +$3.85, September +$3.70, July Lean Hogs -$11.30, August -$10.30, July Pork Carcass Cutout -$10.17. Boxed Beef, Choice -$14.28 @ $323.28, Select -$21.60 @ $283.61, Pork Carcass Cutout -$11.89 @ $120.65.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 117,000 head and Saturday at 69,000. For the week, 663,000 head, down 2,000 from the week previous but up 17,000 from last year. Beef production last week at 543.1 million pounds compared to 545.7 million the week previous and 533.2 million last year. Year to date beef production +6.4% compared to last year with slaughter +5.6%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 470,000 head and Saturday at 60,000. For the week, 2,443,000 head, up 3,000 compared to the week previous but down 150,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 524.2 million pounds compared to 523.4 the week previous and 555.9 million last year. Year to date pork production +1.9% compared to a year ago with slaughter +1.4%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday again sharply lower on light to moderate demand with 87 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__323.28 -2.97
Select Cutout__283.61 -3.63
CME Feeder Cattle Index__141.28 +.93
CME Lean Hog Index__120.38 -1.30
Pork Carcass Cutout__120.65 -4.18
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__134.41
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__122.62 +.34
June live cattle hit a new 2-month high last week at $123.10, the contract high from April 8th at $125.62 and support at $117.70. August feeders very choppy the past few months with the back and forth grains. August feeders also hit a new 2-month high last week at $160.15, the contract high is at $162.40 and support at $152.80. July lean hogs off over $15 since the contract high at $123.60 earlier this month with resistance around $118 and support at $107.80.
The volatile weather driven grain market continued last Friday as grains rebounded after seeing limit and expanded limit lower trading the sessions prior. Hot and dry weather had been dominating the market for the first half of June with good moisture and better extending forecasts seen at the beginning of last week. Soybeans led the charge higher to end the week as rumors circulated that China stepped in to buy at least 8 cargoes of new crop soybeans.
For the week, Friday June 11th through Friday June 18th, July Corn -$.29 ¼, December -$.43 ½, July Soybeans -$1.12 ½, November -$1.25 ¾, July KC Wheat -$.31 ½, September -$.30, July Chicago Wheat -$.18, September -$.20, July MPLS Wheat -$.02 ¼, September -$.05, July Soybean Meal -$9.90/T, December -$16.40/T.
All grains back to trading lower overnight as updated forecasts show cooler temps and more rains towards the end of the week. Corn finished the overnight 13 to 18 lower, soybeans 18 to 25 lower and wheat 8 to 10 lower.
Weather remains the driving force until USDA updates acreage and quarterly stocks at the end of the month. USDA announced a total of 456,000 MT or 16.75 MBU of new crop soybeans sold, 4.4 MBU for unknown destinations and 12.35 MBU to China. USDA will release weekly export inspections later this morning and this afternoon crop progress and conditions. Conditions are still expected lower than a week ago, especially in the WCB.
The past 72 hours of rain was a mixed bag and scattered with the heaviest amounts, ½ to 3” with some locally 5 to 8” spots in Southern IA, Northern MO, most of IL and IN and the western half of OH. The areas that were short changed remains the Northern Plains and WCB specifically Northern IA, NE and the Dakotas. Current radar showing scattered rains across KS, heavy rains in southern KS, northern OK and the southern half of MO. Over this next week, beneficial rains expected across IA and the ECB with heavy rains in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook still holding below normal temps for the eastern half of the U.S. and above normal west but only above normal precip in the South and eastern third of the U.S. with below normal centered on the Dakotas and stretching from the PNW to the Great Lakes and down into the WCB and Central Plains. The 8-14 day outlook, June 28-July 4, shows similar with above normal temps creeping into the WCB and below normal precip expanding to cover the entire western half of the U.S.
July corn holding a lower trend since June 10th but still holding the long term higher trend with resistance at $6.65 and support at $6.30. December corn traded a $1.38 range from the contract high to the recent low in May and so far this month a $.97 ¾ range from high to low. Nearby resistance from $5.70 to $5.75 and support at $5.30. July soybeans have taken out the long term higher trend and down over $3 from the contract high in May with resistance at $14.50 and support at $13.23 ½ which was the trading range from last Thursday. November soybeans also breaking the long term higher trend, down $2.40 from the contract high earlier this month with resistance around $13.40 and support at $12.40. July KC wheat with support at $5.84 and resistance at $6.20. July Chicago wheat with support at $6.37 and resistance at $6.70. July MPLS wheat with support at $7.30 and resistance up around $7.80. July soybean meal into a new 7-month low last week with support next at $350 and resistance at $385.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700