Date: May 14th, 2019
Livestock futures started the week under pressure with the trade war heating up again between the U.S. and China. China did have beef on their list of increased tariffs to start June 1 but left pork off the list of course with the supply in China very tight due to the African swine fever outbreak. There is concern though that China may take another step and cancel U.S. export sales already on the books. Some cleanup cash feedlot trade at $118 live reported yesterday but limited volume and not enough to establish a trend.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/13/2019
Receipts: 5,200 Last Week: 4,896 Last year: 10,078
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 600-700 lbs. 1.00 higher, heavier weights trading mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Steer and heifer calves steady to 4.00 higher on a limited test so far.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/13/2019
Receipts: 3,601 Last Week: 3,208 Last year: 5,189
Compared to last week, steer calves 2.00 to 4.00 lower, heifer calves unevenly steady, yearlings steady to 3.00 lower. Demand moderate to good, supply light.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 121,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 4,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 461,000 head, down 9,000 from last week but up 6,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate to good demand and light to moderate offerings for a total of 89 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__221.58 +.47
Select Cutout__208.89 +1.43
CME Feeder Index__135.39 -.14
CME Lean Hog Index__83.04 +.24
Pork Carcass Cutout__88.24 +2.08
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__82.89 +.48
National Wtd Avg Live Price__62.43 +1.07, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__80.64 +.71
June live cattle into a new 9-month low at $109.60 with support next at $109 and resistance around $115.00. May feeders hit a new contract low at $133.67 last week with support next near $132 then $130 and resistance up near $146. June lean hogs found support at $85.37 last week, still showing a lower trend since the mid-April high at $99.82.
New lows Sunday night, some more Monday morning, but wheat turned higher first with a very good week of export loadings. We have now caught up to last year’s pace by loading out 31.0 MBU for the week ending May 9th but still need to average nearly 36 MBU per week the rest of the this month to meet the USDA estimate. 40% shipped to SE Asia via PNW with 3.8 MBU to Iraq and 2.3 to Egypt. Corn and soybeans were within the expected ranges but below the average weekly needs with corn at 39.4 MBU and soybeans at 18.9 MBU. Corn major destinations were 13.5 MBU to Japan, 9.3 to Mexico, 4.6 to S. Korea and 3.9 to Colombia while 10.0 MBU of soybeans to mainland China and 3.4 to Indonesia. Grain sorghum shipments jumped up to 3.7 MBU with 2.3 MBU to mainland China.
Crop Progress and Conditions Report
Corn planted at 30%, advancing 7% from a week ago, under the expectation of 35%, behind a year ago 59% and the 5-year average of 66%. Corn emerged is at 10% compared to 25% last year and 29% average. Furthest behind in the ECB and Dakotas…
Corn Planted
1,000 A % of Total 5/12/19 5/5/19 5/12/18 5-YR AVG
IA 13,600 6,528 48% 36% 61% 76%
IL 11,200 1,232 11% 10% 88% 82%
NE 9,700 4,462 46% 35% 68% 72%
MN 8,000 1,680 21% 6% 36% 65%
SD 6,000 240 4% 0% 19% 54%
KS 5,700 2,622 46% 41% 65% 67%
IN 5,500 330 6% 3% 69% 57%
WI 4,050 689 17% 7% 28% 46%
ND 4,050 446 11% 3% 31% 43%
OH 3,500 140 4% 2% 50% 47%
USDA reported Spring Wheat at 45% planted, advancing 23% last week, but still behind a year ago 54% and behind the 67% average.
Spring Wheat Planted
1,000 A % of Total 5/12/19 5/5/19 5/12/18 5-YR AVG
ND 6,700 2,479 37% 13% 47% 58%
MT 2,600 1,430 55% 32% 45% 68%
MN 1,530 536 35% 7% 54% 68%
SD 1,020 469 46% 19% 75% 88%
ID 500 405 81% 72% 87% 89%
WA 480 389 81% 72% 92% 92%
Soybeans planted at 9%, advancing 3% from a week ago, under the expectation of 15%, last year’s 32% and the average of 29%.
Soybeans Planted
1,000 A % of Total 5/12/19 5/5/19 5/12/18 5-YR AVG
IL 10,500 315 3% 3% 61% 34%
IA 9,400 1,222 13% 8% 30% 31%
MN 7,300 219 3% 0% 10% 36%
ND 6,500 325 5% 1% 10% 20%
IN 5,700 114 2% 1% 49% 26%
MO 5,500 275 5% 3% 39% 23%
NE 5,400 1,080 20% 14% 37% 32%
SD 5,200 0 0% 0% 4% 19%
OH 4,950 99 2% 1% 28% 20%
KS 4,950 347 7% 5% 28% 16%
USDA reported grain sorghum planted at 24% nationwide, advancing 2% and compared to 32% last year and 33% 5-year average. The six states listed below represented 97% of the 2018 acreage…
Grain Sorghum
1,000 A % of Total 5/12/19 5/5/19 5/12/18 5-YR AVG
KS 2,750 28 1% 1% 3% 3%
TX 1,350 1,013 75% 70% 85% 76%
CO 375 0 0% 0% 0% 8%
OK 250 30 12% 11% 23% 30%
NE 210 17 8% 2% 15% 15%
SD 200 0 0% 0% 3% 5%
Winter wheat conditions nationwide unchanged at 64% good to excellent (3% moved back to excellent from good) and 8% poor to very poor. This compares to last year’s 36% G/E and 36% P/VP. Winter wheat headed at 42% compared to 43% last year and 54% average.
Overnight, all grains higher with corn finishing 6 to 8 higher, soybeans 15 to 16 higher and wheat 1 to 5 higher.
USDA reported private sale of 180,000 MT or 6.6 MBU of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
Heavy rains more towards the end of this week and into the weekend for the Southern Plains and upper Midwest and covering the western Corn Belt for the weekend and into early next week. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal precipitation for all expect in the Southwest and Southeast with below normal temps northcentral and west and above normal southcentral and east.
July corn into a new contact low at $3.43 with a key reversal higher Monday and gapped higher overnight. The next support at $3.42 ¼ then $3.36 from the continuously weekly chart, resistance up near $3.68 & $3.72. July soybeans breaking the $8 barrier and down to a new contact low at $7.91. The low from 2008 is down at $7.76 ¼. July KC wheat with a contract low at $3.82 then reversing higher with resistance up at $3.97 then $4.09. July Chicago wheat new contract low at $4.18 ½ with a key reversal higher Monday. Resistance next is up at $4.48 and the low from December 2017 at $3.86 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700