Date: March 9th, 2022
Fats traded $2 ranges yesterday, feeders and hogs $3+ with all closing higher except the nearby March Feeder contract. Cash negotiated fed cattle trade starting off the week $2 lower at $138 live and $222 dressed. Cattle slaughter though so far this week at the top end of capacity.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/7/2022
This Week: 10,627 Last Week: 5,458 Last Year: 13,686
Compared to last week’s light test: Feeder steers 4.00 – 6.00 lower. Feeder Heifers 5.00 – 8.00 lower. Steer calves 4.00 – 6.00 lower. Heifer calves 6.00 – 9.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaging $149-$156 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $139-$147.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/7/2022
This Week: 9,192 Last Week: 4,777 Last Year: 11,387
Compared to last week feeder steers under 500 lbs. traded 10.00-15.00 lower with heavier weights trading 2.00-5.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded 4.00-12.00 lower. Supply heavy with moderate demand. 7 weight index steers averaging $155-$162 with the 8 weight index steers averaging $152.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/7/2022
This Week: 3,433 Last Week: 4,380 Last Year: 4,683
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 550 lbs and below 11.00 to 14.00 lower, 600 lbs – 800 lbs 5.00 to 9.00 lower, 800 lbs to 950 lbs 3.00 to 9.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs 7.00 to 11.00 lower, 600 lbs – 750 lbs steady to 3.00 lower, 750 lbs – 950lbs 5.00 to 9.00 lower. 8 weight index steers averaging $151 to $155.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/8/2022
This Week: 3,556 Last Week: 3,447 Last Year: 6,277
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded 4.00-8.00 lower with spots 12.00 lower. Demand was moderate on a moderate supply. 7 weight index steers averaging $150 to $155.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 480,000 head, down 2,000 compared to a week ago and down 6,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s hog slaughter revised 9,000 lower to 467,000 head.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on strong demand with 194 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__252.44 -2.27
Select Cutout__244.94 -5.28
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.11 -1.26
CME Lean Hog Index__99.00 -.28
Pork Carcass Cutout __105.40 -1.25
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 103.96 +3.60
April live cattle overall sharply lower the past three weeks with the contract high from February 10th at $148.45 to a new 6-month low last Friday at $133.50. March feeders also on a free fall, down $19 from February 15th to the new recent low last Friday at $150.17. Deferred contracts sharply lower as well the past couple weeks, rebounding so far this week. The August contract hit a new contract high February 16th at $187.10 and down to a new recent low Friday at $172.95. April lean hogs breaking the 2-month long higher trend with support next around $94 and resistance at $105.
Another wild day in the markets yesterday. Corn and beans calming down some but wheat not so much. The CME adjusted daily trading limits for both the KC and Chicago wheat contracts this week to $.85 and expanded limits to $1.30, which were in play yesterday. May Chicago Wheat used the full range as it hit limit higher during the overnight then limit lower during the day…a $2.60 trading range for the day!
Headlines that grabbed the markets attention…Ukraine’s President stating they are not looking to join NATO any longer, Putin stating that all raw products and materials will not be exported out of Russia for the balance of this year and President Biden cutting off energy imports from Russia. Next up…today is report day with USDA updating U.S. and world supply and demand. The expectation is to see both corn and soybean decreased domestic stocks, maybe exports are increased, and decreased world stocks due to South American production estimates lower. I would not expect any adjustments yet to Ukraine or Russia estimates.
Wheat daily limits back to $.85 today which were not tested in the overnight. Wheat was still sharply lower trading $.20 to $.50 lower throughout most of the overnight but did test $.70 to $.80 lower in the early morning hours. Wheat finished the overnight $.50 to $.65 lower, corn $.03 to $.08 lower and soybeans steady to $.08 higher. U.S. equites pointing higher this morning and energies sharply lower.
India announced some wheat export sales overnight has exports remain closed through the Black Sea. India is the second largest wheat producer behind China accounting for roughly 14% of the world’s wheat production. They also have the 2nd largest usage behind China and typically only account for 3% of the world’s wheat exports. For comparison, the U.S. is down below 6% of the world’s wheat production but more than 10% of the world’s exports.
USDA reported this morning a private sale of 100,000 MT or 3.9 MBU of corn sold to Colombia and 20,000 MT of soybean oil sold for unknown destinations.
Today’s USDA crop report average trade estimates…
U.S. Corn ending stocks at 1.480 BBU vs. 1.540 BBU last month
U.S. Soybean ending stocks at 278 MBU vs. 325 MBU
U.S. Wheat ending stocks at 628 MBU vs. 648 MBU
World Corn ending stocks at 301.1 MMT vs. 302.2 MMT last month
World Soybean ending stocks at 89.5 MMT vs. 92.83 MMT
World Wheat ending stocks at 277.6 MMT vs. 278.2MMT
Argentina 21/22 Corn production at 52.1 MMT vs. 54.0 MMT
Brazil 21/22 Corn production at 112.9 MMT vs. 114.00 MMT
Argentina 21/22 Soybean production at 43.4 MMT vs. 45.00 MMT
Brazil 21/22 Soybean production at 129.0 MMT vs. 134.00 MMT
Another round of snow locally and much below normal temps across the Plains to wrap up this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps across the entire country with above normal precipitation in the PNW and Southeast and below normal for the Plains and Southwest.
May corn contract high last Friday at $7.82 ¾, the soon to expire March contract hitting $8, the highest nearby price since September 2012. Support is down at $7.30 then $7. The December contract hit a new contract high yesterday at $6.54 ¾ with support down at $6.19 then $6.04. May soybeans new contract high back on February 24th at $17.59 ¼, closing in on the all-time nearby high from 2012 at $17.94 ¾. Support is down at $16.60 then $16.29. The November contract also hit a new contract high on the 24th at $15.55 but since has found resistance at $14.88 and support at $14.53 then $14.20. May KC wheat topping out at $12.99 ½ so far. The all-time spot high from 2008 up at $13.84 ¾. The July contract up to $12.59 on Monday and finding support the past couple days around $11.04. May Chicago wheat gapped and locked higher for 3 straight trading days, up to $13.63 ½ yesterday. The soon to expire March contract up to $14.25 ¼ on Monday which is a new all-time spot high. May Mpls wheat a new contract high yesterday at $12.11 ¾ with support at $10.80. May Soybean Meal a new contract high on February 24th at $487 with support around $450.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700