Date: October 11th, 2021
Livestock futures mixed last Friday but cattle futures sharply higher for the week while lean hogs slipped lower after new recent highs on October 1st. Both beef and pork prices continue to pull lower but cash feedlot trade held steady yet again. Over the past 6 weeks, KS has had at least some $124 live trade and this past week was no different with trade ranging from $122 to $124. TX trade mostly at $124 with the midweek cash pool trade breaking that barrier up to $124.15. NE trade steady with the week previous at $196 dressed but live trade trending lower and down to $122.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/3/2021 – 10/9/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 28,987 Previous Week: 27,482 Last Year: 30,644
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady to 1.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle and improved following several days of upward movement in the cattle futures. Steer calves steady to 2.00 lower. Heifer calves 2.00-6.00 higher. Demand moderate for calves, with longer weaned calves seeing the best demand. Slaughter cows 1.00-3.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 3.00 lower.
For the week, Friday October 1st through Friday October 8th, October Live Cattle +$5.17, December +$5.05, October Feeder Cattle +$6.72, November +$8.25, October Lean Hogs -$2.05, December -$3.67. Boxed Beef, Choice -$9.09 @ $283.27, Select -$2.10 @ $262.74, Pork Carcass Cutout -$6.40 @ $106.99.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 116,000 head and Saturday at 58,000. For the week, 657,000 head, up 20,000 from the week previous and from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 544.1 million pounds compared to 526.2 million the week previous and 536.4 million last year. Year to date beef production +2.9% compared to last year and slaughter remains +3.3%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 477,000 head and Saturday at 224,000. For the week, 2,597,000 head, up 81,000 compared to the week previous but down 131,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 547.1 million pounds compared to 527.8 the week previous and 587.7 million last year. Year to date pork production -2.0% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter remains -1.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday continued lower on moderate demand with 104 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__283.27 -2.03
Select Cutout__262.74 -1.70
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.57 +.77
CME Lean Hog Index__91.95 -.64
Pork Carcass Cutout__106.99 -5.27
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__69.26 -.92
October live cattle rebounding last week to test nearby resistance around $126 with support at $123. October feeders also rebounding last week and taking out nearby resistance with the next up around $162 and support at $155. October lean hogs with support around $88 and resistance at $92.65.
Grains were lower on Friday at the close except for MPLS spring wheat contracts which held gains Friday and for the week as new contract highs were hit for the third trading day in a row. World wheat values continued higher but both KC and Chicago wheat faded after new recent highs to start the week. Corn and soybeans were choppy this past week as news was light and fall harvest progresses. China was on holiday most of last week and still did not buy any more soybeans when coming back.
For the week, Friday October 1st through Friday October 8th, December Corn -$.11, March -$.10 ¼, November Soybeans -$.03 ½, January -$.02 ¼, December KC Wheat -$.22, March -$.20 ¾, December Chicago Wheat -$.21 ¼, March -$.18 ¾, December MPLS Wheat +$.17 ½, March +$.18 ½, October Soybean Meal -$7.50/T, December -$8.20/T.
Grains trading fairly quiet overnight and finishing higher with corn steady to 1 higher, soybeans 1 to 2 higher and wheat 1 to 3 higher. Crude into new highs, breaking above $80 for the first time since 2014.
This week’s focus will be the USDA monthly supply and demand report to be released tomorrow morning at 11 AM CST. This will be an update on fall crop production estimates, new crop demand and taking in the old crop adjustments from the quarterly stocks report. The average trade estimates are as follows…
U.S. Corn production at 14.973 BBU with a yield at 176.0 BPA compared to last month’s 14.996 BBU estimate at 176.3 BPA. Ending stocks at 1.432 BBU up from 1.408 BBU.
U.S. Soybean production at 4.415 BBU with a yield at 51.1 BPA up from last month’s 4.374 BBU and 50.6 BPA. Ending stocks up to 300 MBU from last month’s estimate at 185 MBU.
U.S. Wheat ending stocks are expected to be lower than last month at 576 MBU compared to 615 MBU in September.
World stocks are expected to be 1 MMT higher for both corn and soybeans but 2.4 MMT lower for wheat with Canadian and possibly Russian wheat lowered again.
Scattered rains over the weekend in the Southern Plains and up through the WCB with more in the forecast from TX to the Dakotas today through Wednesday. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the northern half of the U.S. and the East Coast and below normal in the Southwest with below normal moisture across the entire country expect for the PNW and FL.
December corn still holding the long term lower trend but a month long higher trend with nearby support at $5.24 and resistance at $5.48. November soybeans just holding the lower trend with new 6-month lows last week at $12.31 and resistance at $12.95. December KC wheat holding a higher trend since early July with the contract high at $7.69 on August 13th and support around $7.30. December Chicago wheat also a higher trend with the contract high at $7.86 ½, but resistance first at $7.63 and support around $7.30. December MPLS wheat a new contract high at $9.53 last Friday with nearby support at $9.21. December Soybean Meal into a new recent low at $318 last week with resistance around $325 then $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700