Date: November 28th, 2022
Livestock futures were lower on Friday and most contracts lower week over week. Nearby December live cattle were able to catapult higher on Wednesday for a new contract high but no follow through buying after the day off on Thursday as grains were higher and equities lower to end the week. Weekly export sales didn’t help the cattle futures much either with a moderate amount of beef sales at 16,900 MT and exports of 17,300 MT. Pork sales were bullish with a massive weekly sales amount of 50,200 MT and exports at 33,200 MT. Cash fed cattle trade another $2 to $3 higher with live trade in South from $154 to $155 and in the North, live trade from $157 to $159 with dressed trade from $245 to $247.50.
For the week, Friday November 18th through Friday November 25th, December Live Cattle unchanged, February -$.72, January Feeder Cattle -$2.47, March -$1.57, December Lean Hogs -$.45, February -$1.05. Boxed Beef, Choice -$3.04 @ $251.83, Select +$1.54 @ $234.37, Pork Carcass Cutout -$5.81 @ $87.63.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 581,000 head, down 93,000 from the week previous due to the Thanksgiving Day break, but up 13,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 484.6 million pounds with year to date remaining +1.4% vs. last year and slaughter +1.6%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,223,000 head, down 376,000 compared to the week previous and down 32,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 478.1 million pounds with year to date remaining -2.4% compared to a year ago and slaughter -2.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on Choice but higher on Select on weak demand with 61 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__251.83 -.73
Select Cutout__234.37 +1.04
CME Feeder Cattle Index__173.63 -.66 from 11/24
CME Lean Hog Index__86.17 -.37 from 11/22
Pork Carcass Cutout Values __87.63 -1.73
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__82.95, 3,375 head
December live cattle up to a new contract high last Wednesday at $154.72 with support down around $152. January feeders remain very choppy with a new recent high last week at $183.07, resistance next up at $185.40 and support at $176.32. December lean hogs remain range bound with support at $82.82 and resistance at $87.57.
Grains mixed last Friday with small gains for corn and soybeans. Wheat continues to trend lower with Chicago SRW wheat into new recent lows. U.S. Southern plains dry in the nearby, light rain over the weekend but an extended forecast that is colder and wetter. Argentina continues to struggle with dryness and Australia sees flooding as harvest begins. European wheat futures remain elevated as the markets continue to watch the headlines for escalation in Ukraine. Weekly exports sales were decent with wheat at 18.8 MBU, corn sales totaled 72.8 MBU and 24.7 MBU new crop yet still on the lower end of expectations and 25.4 MBU soybean sales.
For the week, Friday November 18th through Friday November 25th, December Corn +$.00 ¼, March +$.01 ¼, January Soybeans +$.08, March +$.09, December KC Wheat -$.12 ¼, March -$.11 ¾, December Chicago Wheat -$.27 ¾, March -$.25, December MPLS Wheat +$.05 ¾, March -$.09 ¼, December Soybean Meal -$1.60/T, January +$.20/T.
Grains mixed overnight. Russian wheat prices up $3/MT from last week. Ukraine still says millions are without power due to shelling last week by Russia on their power infrastructure. Ukraine Ag Ministry estimating that 17.2 MMT of grain has been exported this marketing year compared to 25.3 MMT at this time a year ago. China maintains COVID lockdowns despite unprecedented protests over the weekend. Crude down over $2 overnight for a new 10-month low, equites pointing lower this morning and the US$ is lower. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 5 lower, soybeans 3 to 4 lower, KC wheat 2 to 3 lower, Chicago wheat 7 to 10 lower and MPLS wheat 2 to 5 higher.
South Korea purchased a couple cargoes of optional origin corn overnight. USDA announced this morning a private sale of 110,000 MT or 4 MBU of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations.
Heavy rains in the forecast for the Southeast again this week, much below normal temps in the Northern Plains and mild with little to no rain expected across the Southern Plains. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the South and East with below normal in the North and West with normal to above normal moisture across the majority of the country. Argentina remains hot with a rain chance midweek providing short term relief, but much more needed to prevent further production loss. Brazil’s weather remains mostly good with good soil moisture and timely rains.
December corn trying to break the month long lower trend with support at $6.51 and resistance at $6.75. January soybeans remain range bound with support at $14.06 ¾ and resistance at $14.65. December KC wheat holding a lower tend with a new recent low last week at $9.11 and resistance at $9.75. December Chicago holding a steeper lower trend, a new recent low overnight at $7.60 ¼, support next at $7.45 and resistance around the $8.00 level. December MPLS wheat now testing the lower trend line with support at $9.46 and resistance at $9.83.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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