Date: October 22nd, 2021
Another mixed trading day for livestock futures yesterday. Lean hogs continue to be under heavy selling pressure with the nearby December contract down over $12 from the recent high at the beginning of the month and now only $2 away from the new 6-month lows in September.
Cattle futures also mostly in the red on Thursday but did trade both sides of unchanged for much of the day. Cash feedlot trade this week in the KS and TX at $124 live and in NE at $196 dressed, steady with last week. Live trade in NE a bit firmer than week ago at $124 up to $126.50 live and IA up to $127. Estimates for today’s Cattle on Feed report leaning to 1% to 2% higher placements vs. a year ago, 2% to 3% lower marketings and October on feed unchanged to 1% lower than last year.
Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. – Salina, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/21/2021
This Week: 2,027 Last Week: 2,087 Last Year: 1,923
A nice offering of steers and heifers coming off grass today. Compared to last week steers under 650 lbs were not tested, however a lower undertone was noted. 700 to 800 lb steers sold 1.00 to 4.00 higher and steers over 800 lbs sold 1.00 to 3.00 lower. Heifers under 600 lbs were not tested but a lower under tone was noted. Heifers 600 to 800 lbs were 3.00 to 5.00 higher and heifers over 800 lbs had no previous week comparison. The supply was moderate and the demand was light to moderate.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/21/2021
This Week: 1,203 Last Week: 2,306 Last Year: 2,502
Compared to last week, feeder steers 600 lb to 800 lb sold 6.00 to 8.00 higher. Steers 800 lb to 950 lb sold steady on light receipts. Feeder heifers 500 lb to 800 lb sold 6.00 to 8.00 higher. Heifers 800 lb to 900 lb sold steady on very light receipts. Not enough calves for a market test, however a steady trend was noted. Demand was good.
Billings Livestock Commission Cattle Auction – Billings, MT (Thu)
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/21/2021
This Week: 7,046 Last Week: 4,838 Last Year: 2,490
Compared to last week: Yearlings were all too lightly tested to develop any market trend. Demand for yearlings was mostly moderate. Steer calves under 400 lbs were too lightly tested either this week or last week to develop an accurate market trend, sharply lower undertones were noticed. 400-449 lbs steers sold steady to weak, 450 lbs and up sold mostly 3.00-6.00 lower with instances of steady seen on very attractive steers. Heifer calves under 450 lbs sold steady to firm, 450-599 lbs heifers sold steady to 5.00 lower, heifers over 600 lbs were too lightly tested last week to develop an accurate market trend, steady to lower undertones were noticed. Quality this week was mostly average to very attractive. Transportation continue to be the biggest factor limiting demand. Trucks are very tight and several buyers left as soon as they filled the trucks they had available.
Ogallala Livestock Auction – Ogallala, NE
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/21/2021
This Week: 3,685 Last Week: 2,550 Last Year: 2,985
Compared to last week, steers were 4.00 -9.00 lower and heifers were 2.00 – 9.00 lower. Demand was moderate in most classes.
Valentine Livestock Auction – Valentine, NE
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/21/2021
This Week: 2,580 Last Week: 2,210 Last Year: 3,420
Compared with last week 500 lbs steers traded 2.00 lower and 550 to 600 lbs steers traded 4.00 to 5.00 higher, 550 lbs heifer offerings traded steady.
Woodward Livestock Auction Feeder Cattle – Woodward, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/21/2021
This Week: 3,709 Last Week: 2,640 Last Year: 3,319
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady. Steer and heifer calves mostly steady. Demand was moderate for the calves and good for the yearling type cattle.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 120,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 2,000 from last year. Week to date at 482,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 479,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago but down 8,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date at 1,907,000 head, up 3,000 compared to a week ago but down 40,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Thursday higher Choice but steady to lower Select on good demand with 158 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__280.66 +.63
Select Cutout__262.72 -.08
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.11 +1.08
CME Lean Hog Index__84.83 -1.06
Pork Carcass Cutout__98.28 +1.41
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__65.43 -1.50
October live cattle in a range from $126 to $124 over the past two weeks with only a week left until expiration and cash still at $124. The highest volume December contract with resistance right above $131 and support at $128. October feeders hit resistance just above $160 early last week and a lower trend holding since with support at $155 then last month’s low at $151.92. The November contract does not look as bad with support holding the past three days at $158.60 and resistance at $162.30. December lean hogs filling the gap and into a new recent low with support at last month’s low down at $71.27 and nearby resistance at $80.
Grains on Thursday reversing lower wiping out most of it not all of Wednesday’s gains. Outside markets didn’t help with crude oil lower and US$ sharply higher. Soybeans led the charge after the nearby November contract matched Wednesday’s high at $12.49 ½ but stalled and in came the technical selling. Beans had experienced 5 days in a row higher trading after the report day low last week. We’ll see which side wins heading into the weekend. Weekly exports for the fall crops were very strong for the week ending October 14th with 105.8 MBU of soybeans, 50.1 MBU of corn and throw in 10.3 MBU of grain sorghum. Wheat export sales for the week were disappointing but certainly not bearish at 13.3 MBU. MPLS spring wheat scored new contract highs early in the day, the 9th day so far this month, but also succumbed to the pressure with KC wheat the lowest of the three wheat markets.
Grains bouncing backing higher after yesterday’s selloff with US$ lower and energies higher. Corn finished steady to 3 higher, soybeans steady to 1 higher and wheat 5 to 14 higher.
News light overnight. No daily export sales today, only 1 this week which was yesterday’s announcement of 5.1 MBU of corn sold to Mexico. Russia’s Ag Ministry increased grain export taxes for the week ending Nov 2nd to $67/MT for wheat or $1.82/BU and corn up to $49.70/MT or $1.26/BU. World value wheat values continue to rise and Russia trying to curb domestic food price inflation.
Rains yesterday from the Southeast up into New England with heavy rains in the forecast for the Corn Belt heading into the weekend and early next week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps across the majority of the country, below normal now only in the PNW with above normal moisture in the PNW and the eastern 1/3 of the U.S. and below normal stretching up from the Southwest into the Plains.
December corn still holding the long term lower trend with nearby support at $5.28 and resistance at $5.40 then $5.48. November soybeans also holding the lower trend with new 6-month lows last week at $11.84 ½ and resistance being tested this week at $12.50. December KC wheat holding a higher trend since early July with support at $7.40 and the contract high at $7.69. December Chicago wheat also a long term higher trend with support around $7.30, resistance at $7.60 and the contract high at $7.86 ½. December MPLS wheat another new contract high overnight at $9.97 ½ and support at $9.30. The next upside target is $10.35, the spot high from July 2012. December Soybean Meal bouncing off the new 12-month low last week at $309.3 with resistance at $330 then $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700